Storm Researcher Predicts Active Season, Risks For Louisiana

William Gray, the noted hurricane researcher predicted Wednesday that rising water temperatures in the Atlantic will result in a "well above average" storm season this year, including four major storms.

The updated forecast the Colorado State University team is predicting 15 named storms in the Atlantic in 2008. The team also says there a better than average chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the United States. The Gray team is also predicting a 69 percent chance at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2008. The long-term average probability is 52 percent.

Specifically on the Gulf Coast — from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas — the researchers are predicting a 44 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall. The long-term average probability is 30 percent.

But, the question arises whether the United States and Louisiana in particular will be prepared in the event a natural disaster such as a hurricane or major storm should hit?

According to U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu “Preparedness is key in the face of a natural disaster — and two and a half years later, we are still grappling with the consequences of ill-prepared agencies. That is why I have consistently pressed the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) on response planning that will significantly improve upon their performance following the 2005 storms. I have also held the Army Corps of Engineers to account for their responsibility to ensure our hurricane and flood protection systems are up to the standard needed to protect our coastal communities.

“As the third anniversaries of hurricanes Katrina and Rita and the federal levee breaks approach, we are reminded that the rebuilding process on the Gulf Coast is not yet complete, and that the full recovery of the region requires continued support. Of those, eight are expected to become hurricanes, and of the eight, four are predicted to develop into major storms. The forecasters have determined that there is a 69 percent chance at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2008. The long-term average probability is 52 percent.

Updates to the 2008 Atlantic basin hurricane activity forecast will be released June 3, Aug. 5, Sept. 2 and Oct. 1.

Gray has been criticized over the past couple years for predicting major storms and then downgrading his predictions.

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