By Christopher Tidmore

By October, political observers began to suspect that former WDSU reporter Helena Moreno would unite enough of the white vote, even in a closed Democratic primary, to make a runoff. Yet, each and every pundit warned prior to Saturday's election that any of her opponents, even Bill Jefferson, were sure to beat her in November.
Dr. Ed Renwick of Loyola University put it simplest, "Moreno will make the runoff, and then she will lose to whomever ends up with her."
With Barack Obama on the ballot, demographers expect a nearly 100% African-American turnout on November 4th, and before the primary, the almost universal expectation amongst the punditti was that racial enthusiasm would carry any Black congressional candidate into office--even the Indicted Bill Jefferson.
Jefferson demonstrated that while wounded, he still holds political stroke in the Greater New Orleans Area. Against a field of five other strong African-American American candidates, Jefferson carried most of Orleans outside of New Orleans East, and large portions of lower West Bank Jefferson and South Kenner.
In fact, Bill Jefferson carried almost as much of Jefferson Parish geographically as Byron Lee, carrying many precincts in the Lee's own Councilmatic District. In the end, Lee carried his home parish by less than 2000 votes over William Jefferson, 6,438 to 4,553 respectively.
In Orleans, Jefferson carried some precincts that were actually currently represented by primary opponents Rep. Cedric Richmond, in the Ninth Ward, and Councilman James Carter, in Algiers.
In New Orleans, Moreno actually ranked third, at 8,591 votes to Cedric Richmond's 10,841 and Bill Jefferson's 12, 947. Outside of New Orleans East, where she dominated, her victories emerged from predominantly white precincts in Uptown, the Lakefront, Downtown, and Algiers Point.
In Jefferson Parish, though, she ruled.
While Councilman Lee narrowly carried his home parish, it was a pyrrhic victory, 6,438 to Moreno's 5,190. Jefferson was in a close third place at 4,554.
On a precinct by precinct level, Moreno dominated the map, carrying large swaths in Kenner, Westwego, Gretna, and Marrero, holding a geographic sway that bested Lee.
The simple meaning of Moreno's results, even at 19,93%, was that the former WDSU reporter did receive some African-American votes, just as Rep. Richmond only earned his 17.46% third place finish by winning some white voters who were convinced either that he would be stronger in a runoff against Bill Jefferson than Moreno or were swayed by his endorsements from the Times-Picayune, Gambit Weekly, or the Alliance for Good Government.
This harkens well for Moreno. While the Second District is clearly majority Black, even in the wake of Katrina's destruction, it has lost significant African-American population in its Orleans sectors. In theory, if Moreno won just over two out of ten black votes, and carried almost every white vote, she could potentially become a Congresswoman.
Turnout dynamics matter on November 4th, of course, but to win Moreno must improve her showing in Orleans Parish, convincing younger African-American voters that in the reformist Age of Obama, Louisiana cannot survive the continued presence of an indicted Representative.
Moreno's campaign staff privately admits that the argument will likely fall flat among older Black voters, but those under 45, born after Jim Crow's demise, may prove a bit more open minded--at least enough for a minority to vote for a Hispanic challenger.
Moreno does have strong Democratic credentials. She was a former aide to Hillary Clinton, and in an exclusive to Bayoubuzz.com, this website has learned that the several leaders of the State Democratic Party are encouraging an official partisan endorsement prior to the Democratic runoff--an unusual show of support against a sitting incumbent.
A Caucasian candidate did recently win a large portion of the Black vote against an African-American challenger. In the Orleans District Attorney's race, Leon Cannizzaro earned his first place finish carrying a large percentage of African-American votes. He was respectful to Jason Williams, merely pointing out that the young Defense Attorney had no prosecutorial experience. It was an argument that resonated in crime plagued New Orleans, as a enough Black votes joined with Cannizzaro's white supporters to put him first. If it had been an all Caucasian contest, Ralph Capitelli might have emerged in first place.
All Moreno has to do is convince just less than 3 out of 10 Black voters that she stands for the same spirit of reform that Barack Obama does, and Bill Jefferson is the old politics from which Louisiana must depart.
This can be done respectfully with the words, Bill Jefferson was a good Congressman. He represented the District well for many years, but he no longer has lost his committee assignments (on Ways and Means), and can no longer be effective for us."
Moreno and her surrogates then can add that she can.

THE IMPOSSIBLE COME TRUE: A GOP VICTORY IN THE SECOND

Moreno's greatest disadvantage is that not one Republican voter in the Second Congressional District can vote for her in November. Were this the open primary system of the last Second Congressional District race, the GOP electorate would likely flock to her candidacy in ways that they did not to Karen Carter.
However, the closed primary system was restored by Cleo Fields, in part, to prevent exactly that from happening. Fields wanted closed primaries to strengthen the influence of the African-American community and create more Black Congressional candidates. By excluding conservative whites (just as the GOP primary effectively excluded liberals) he could achieve this end.
In the staunchly Democratic Second Congressional District, this has meant that Republican voters have seemingly been disenfranchised.
Yet, the impossible may be possible because of the unusual nature of this congressional contest.
The Republican candidate Joesph Cao is a political newcomer and had this been a November General Election as was originally expected before Hurricane Gustav, would have been an afterthought in the race.
However, should Jefferson beat Moreno on November 4th, he will advance to a low turnout election in early December where the Second District Race is the only one of the ballot.
Cao may have a chance for two reasons. First, when given a chance to speak, he makes an excellent impression. Trained to become a Jesuit Priest, he left prior to his ordination to become an attorney and a College Professor. An immigrant from Vietnam at the age of ten, his story of overcoming rivals Barack Obama's.
He is an articulate and commanding speaker, as only one trained to give Homilies can be.
Cao is also one of the leaders of New Orleans' increasingly influential Vietnamese Community. He sits on the Parish Board of Our Lady of Vietnam School, has been a driving force behind the new community garden, helped fight the New Orleans East landfill, and aided in the creation of the new International Charter school for the community.
Should all 30,000 potential Vietnamese voters go to the polls in December, that would equal the results that Moreno and Jefferson both earned in the October primary combined. Add the better than 20 percent of registered Republicans in the District, and Cao actually has the architecture of victory.
Against any other African-American candidate, this scenario would be impossible, yet even Black voters will not be very enthusiastic to go the polls for Bill Jefferson as they hear daily reports from his trial in Arlington, VA--which begins before the December General election.
Bill Jefferson himself will have to be in court, and away from the campaign trail. And, even Barack Obama, should he emerge victorious in the Presidential race, will have second thoughts about supporting this Democratic candidate.

Christopher Tidmore is back on the radio. He is the host of Gulf Coast Morning on WBSL 1190 AM from 7-9 AM, Monday-Friday.

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