By Christopher Tidmroe

Leon Cannizzaro’s campaign manager Sidney Arroyo spent Thursday battening down the hatches of the DA candidate’s campaign.   Not only securing vital files and documents in preparation for a possible campaign, but trying to rearrange carefully organized volunteer and campaign schedules as people began to pour of the city out of a fear that Gustav might landfall by early next week.

It is nearly impossible to run a successful campaign when your workers, volunteers, and entire infrastructure have left the city for higher ground.  

Of course, the District Attorney’s race, like judicial contests in Orleans and Jefferson, takes place on October 4^th, leaving nearly a month to reboot the effort even if a hurricane made landfall.  The candidates in the Second Congressional District race knew by week’s end, they would not be so lucky.

Even a glancing blow by a hurricane would disrupt next Saturday’s election so greatly that it might not even occur.  And, were it to continue, the already anemic expected turnout would be almost non-existent.  Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, according to most expectations, would almost have to delay the primary election until October.

The prospect of this was greeted by groans by several of the Second Congressional District Democratic candidates.  As the campaign manager for one put it to Bayoubuzz.com on the promise of anonymity, “There just isn’t any money out there for anyone to continue.”

Fundraising has been weak for all of the candidates.  Attempting to continue a primary campaign for Congress with its expensive television and media buys could through several of the frontrunners out of competition, he feared. 

The one candidate who would seemingly gain by a delay, Helena Moreno, would actually be doomed by one.  The former WDSU television personality hails from a successful oil family, and has managed through familial connections to effectively self-finance her race in the Democratic primary. 

Running in a very low turnout primary in September, with a runoff in October, meant that the sole Caucasian candidate was a viable contender.  Whites actually constitute the major of super chronic Democratic voters according to some estimates post-Katrina.   Even if the actual Caucasian turnout was a mere plurality in a October runoff, total attendance at the polls would be low enough that just a few crossover middle class African-American voters could propel her to Congress.

Or at least to a token general election where Moreno’s only real competition would be a Vietnamese Republican in one of the most African-American Democratic districts in the nation.  

However, if that November election is the Democratic Party Runoff where Moreno would face an African-American, even Bill Jefferson, the huge Black turnout for Barack Obama would doom any white candidate for office in Orleans Parish.  It is a dilemma that faces white DA candidates like Cannizzaro and Ralph Capitelli.   Jason Williams’ youth and lack of experience would pose less of a liability if nearly 100% of African-Americans turnout to vote for the potentially first Black president. 

Until the slow winds of Gustav gathered near Jamaica, the timing of Moreno’s party runoff has spared her from similar concerns.  Delaying the elections thanks to a storm would put her in the same boat--proverbially speaking of course

Bayoubuzz Note:  Jacques Berry, the spokesperson for the Secretary of State, Jay Dardenne, has just informed Bayoubuzz that should there be an evacuation due to Hurricane Gustav, the date of the first party primary for the Congressional districts might be put off  temporarily depending upon the overall circumstances but would not be postponed for a month due to the conflict with the national elections set for November.  In essence, the rescheduling of the first party primary for the Congressional districts (should it even occur) would be short term rescheduling and everything depends upon the location of any storm and ability of displaced victims to vote and other pertinent factors. Friday August 29, 2008 at 9:31 am.