By Christopher Tidmore, ctidmore@louisianaweekly.com

        Despite the distractions of a competitive New Orleans election season, several hundred political activists came out in support of Anh "Joseph" Cao in his bid for re-election to the United States House of Representatives.

        They packed out the Bridge Lounge, a popular music establishment on the corner of Erato and Magazine Streets in the Lower Garden District to back the first Vietnamese American Congressman's attempt to be re-elected to the 2nd Congressional District as a Republican.

       The attendance amidst the many political parties and events on Thursday night, January 14th, was impressive--more so considering the disproportionate number of enthusiastic twenty-somethings who came out to rally in support of Cao.  They resembled the Obama Brigades of Change in 2008.

       The US Representative had just returned from Vietnam two days before, his first visit since 2001, where he led a delegation of his fellow Congressmen to tour the country--under very specific restrictions.  Cao, a well-known critic of the communist government was not allowed to meet with any dissidents.

        The Congressman recounted to the crowd his visit with his older sister, whom he had not seen in almost a decade.  Reunited, the two siblings reminisced for some hours.  However, as soon as Cao left, local police interrogated her and asked, as Cao rec

ounted, "What did he want?  What did he talk about?  What did he want?"

        "Isn't it great," the Congressman explained, "That we live in a country where we can associate with anyone we wish," and his supporters cheered.

        As the Heath Care bill comes up for a final house vote, Cao is rallying this local support in a show of strength.  In the room were not just Republicans but local African-American leaders like his chief aide and former New Orleans Democratic State Rep. Rosalind Peychaud.  At a time when most political activists in New Orleans have been distracted by the municipal races, Cao sent a clear signal that he can garner voters--and remains a force to be reckoned with in November.

        It is a declaration of support that he needs to telegraph to the political world at this crucial juncture.   Without a Stupak amendment added to the Health Care bill, Cao has already signaled that, this time, he would not be the sole Republican support it.  Unlike the original House bill, the current version does not include strong protections to prevent federal funds from paying for abortion services. 

          The Congressional candidate needed a show of strength because his principal Democratic opponent demonstrated his political influence earlier in the week.  On Tuesday, January 12, 2010, former United States Senator from Louisiana John Breaux endorsed State Representative Cedric Richmond’s campaign for Louisiana’s Second Congressional District. 

         In his endorsement, Senator Breaux said, “I am excited to endorse such a qualified candidate as Cedric Richmond.  In the State Legislature, he has proven to be an accomplished and effective legislator who is willing to reach across the aisle to get things done for his district.”

         Breaux went on to say,“Cedric has a keen understanding of the vital priorities facing the Second District and the rest of Southeast Louisiana, including hurricane recovery, flood protection,  and better jobs.”  They are the three issues that Cao has made centerpieces of his term in office. 

         Cao has tried to veer a middle course while in office, supporting the Health Care bill and the Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, while opposing the Stimulus, yet he represents one of the most solidly Democratic districts in the nation.   (Cao's opposition to the Cap and Trade bill is one area where Democrats in New Orleans tend to agree with the GOP because of the oil industry--and would likely have earned a "nay" vote from any Democrat in the 2nd District.)

        Still, Cedric Richmond has an advantage by simply demography and party registration in any head to head contest.  Richmond must win the Democratic Primary first.   His fellow State Representative Juan LaFonta is already an announced candidate for Congress, and others might jump in to the fray.   

        With John Breaux's early endorsement, some nine months before the primary, and ten from the general election, Richmond likely will win votes not only from Black Democratic core electorate, but from conservative White Democrats who represent the foundation of Joseph Cao's coalition.

       Only 15% of the voters in the 2nd District are Republicans.  Cao needs overwhelming Caucasian support, and quite a few middle class African-Americans in this Black Majority District, to win a second term. 

       However, Richmond still has a problem.  Several prominent Democrats locally has pondered a run as an Independent in the November General Election.  Freed from an expensive party primary, they could face Richmond and Cao.  Whomever gained the most number of votes would win regardless of whether or not they had a majority. 

       In this scenario is Cao's greatest chance of victory as well.   If he were to hold his core 35% of solid support, the Republican could win a second term in this very Democratic district as the other candidates divided the remaining electorate amongst themselves.   Redistricting after the 2010 census would like draw a seat more reflective of his politics.    

       Yet, many Republicans remain angry that Cao voted for the original Health Care bill.  He needs almost 100% GOP turn out to win under any model, and no one knows if a vote against the final bill will sooth those furious emotions.   

Christopher Tidmore hosts the Political Roundtable from 3-4 PM Weekdays on WSLA 1560 AM New Orleans and KKAY 1590 AM Baton Rouge, online at www.globalradiokkay.com.