Despite the hoopla of the Democratic National Convention and the great publicity for Democratic nominee Barack Obama this week, he has not received much of a boost in the public opinion polls. In fact, his poll numbers have declined slightly. The pick of U.S. Senator Joseph Biden has been a big failure and has not helped the ticket at all. According to the National Journal, Barack Obama is the most liberal member of the U.S. Senate, while Biden is the third most liberal member. Since this ticket is so liberal and the American people are starting to focus on the election and the issues, Obama and Biden will have trouble winning this fall. America is a basically conservative nation and this ticket is not at all conservative.
One thing is certain; Louisiana is a conservative state and the Democratic ticket will not be competitive in Louisiana. While across the nation, Barack Obama and John McCain are locked in a dead heat, in Louisiana, McCain has a huge lead over his Democratic rival. A new Rasmussen survey gives McCain a 57-39 percent lead over Obama in the PelicanState. Most political analysts now believe that Obama will basically concede the state to McCain. The state has only nine electoral votes, so it will not be a big prize on Election Day.
The two major presidential candidates will likely spend the vast majority of their time in the crucial battleground states. In the past Louisiana has been a bellwether state in the presidential race, often voting for the winning candidate. In 1992 and 1996, Bill Clinton carried the state; however, in 2000 and 2004, George W. Bush won Louisiana.
There seems to be little doubt that no matter who John McCain picks as his running mate, he will easily win the state this fall.
Jeff Crouere is a native of New Orleans, LA and he is the host of a Louisiana based program, “Ringside Politics,” which airs at 7:30 p.m. Fri. and 10:00 p.m. Sun. on WLAE-TV 32, a PBS station, and 7 till 11 a.m. weekdays on WGSO 990 AM in New Orleans and the Northshore. He is the political analyst for WGNO-TV ABC26. For more information, visit his web site at www.ringsidepolitics.com. E-mail him at jeff@ringsidepolitics.com
Obama won't win period. He's too liberal. He's too inexperienced (uh...no..."community organizer" and two ego-tripping books don't count when it comes to running even a business, much less a country!). No, he won't win. The media want him to win - like Chris-Obama-sends-a-thrill-up-my-leg-Matthews. However, most of the mainstream media are liberal. Not the Democrats like your grandparents were. No. These are left-wing loony-bin socialistic Marxist Democrats. That's what Obama is. He's a left-wing loony. He was voted THE most liberal senator for 2007 by a non-partisan group -- and Biden came in THIRD.
Obama has never run a business - and people expect him to balance the budget? Crazy! In spite of his Harvard law degree, he has never tried any notable cases.
Steven M. Warshawsky said it best: "Not a single work of legal scholarship he has authored, despite having been Editor-in-Chief of the Harvard Law Review and a part-time law professor at the University of Chicago for twelve years. (This is unheard of in the elite ranks of the legal profession, and calls into question the bona fides of Obama's professorship.)"
"Obama's principal occupation before entering politics was as a "community organizer" in Chicago. By his own admission, these efforts achieved only "some success," and none worthy of highlighting on his campaign website. Obama then served eight unexceptional years in the Illinois Senate, and was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2004, where he is not even considered one of the Democratic Party's legislative leaders."
" In his brief tenure in the U.S. Senate, Obama has compiled a consistently liberal voting record, and was named the Most Liberal Senator for 2007 by the National Journal . This distinction does not augur well for Obama. John Kerry was named the Most Liberal Senator for 2003 -- the year before he lost the 2004 presidential contest to Bush."
"As a U.S. Senator, Obama has voted along Democratic Party lines 97 percent of the time, almost 10 percentage points higher than the average for Senate Democrats. So much for his "bipartisan" image. He opposed funding for the War on Terror that was not tied to a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq. He opposed strengthening the ability of the federal government to monitor terrorist communications. He voted in favor of providing habeas corpus rights to detainees at Guantanamo Bay. He supported the failed "comprehensive immigration reform" bills. He voted against the Federal Marriage Amendment. He opposed a bill that would have reduced the federal estate tax."
"Obama's voting record as a state senator reflected the same left-wing agenda: He opposed restrictions on partial birth abortion and requiring medical care for fetuses who are born alive during an abortion. He opposed requiring school officials to install pornography-blocking software on public computers accessible to minors. He opposed a $500 income tax credit for parents who send their children to private schools. He supported restrictions on gun ownership, and opposed a bill that permitted the owner of an unregistered handgun to claim self-defense if he used the gun in his own home. He consistently voted in favor of higher taxes."
Did you get that last part? HE CONSISTENTLY VOTED IN FAVOR OF HIGHER TAXES. You think he's going to just tax the richest of the rich? You think THAT will be enough for his bloated health care plan and other goodies he's promised the faithful? Utter nonsense!
"True to form, in his campaign for president, Obama advocates a dizzying array of hyper-liberal policies, including: "equal pay" laws, expanded federal leave laws, expanded "hate crime" laws, a panoply of social services for convicted criminals, increasing foreign aid spending by tens of billions of dollars with the goal of "cutting extreme poverty around the world in half by 2015" (pure utopianism paid for by the American taxpayer), requiring 25 percent of U.S. electricity come from "renewable" sources by 2025 (an impossible goal without drastically shrinking the economy), spending tens of billions of dollars on an FDR-style array of federal economic programs, further raising the minimum wage, and providing "affordable" and "comprehensive" health insurance to all Americans (aka socialized medicine). Naturally, he proposes to pay for all these programs by raising taxes on "the wealthiest taxpayers" and imposing a "windfall profits tax" on oil companies."
"Obama's dissolutely liberal politics will sink him in the general election, just as it torpedoed previous Democratic candidates."
"Contrary to what Obama and his supporters want the American people to believe, Obama is not a "post-racial" politician. As abundantly demonstrated in his two autobiographies, his 20-year membership in Rev. Jeremiah Wright's "unashamedly black" Trinity United Church of Christ, and his "intensely race-conscious approach" to politics as an Illinois state senator (see here), Obama is deeply committed to his "black" identity -- despite having a white mother and being raised for much of his childhood by his white grandparents."
"Let's look at some numbers. According to the CNN exit poll, in the 2004 presidential election, the electorate was composed of 77% whites, 11% blacks, 8% Latinos, 2% Asian, and 2% other. They voted as follows: whites 58-41 for Bush; blacks 88-11 for Kerry; Latinos 53-44 for Kerry; Asians 56-44 for Kerry.
I see little reason to believe that the Latino or Asian votes will change substantially in 2008. (Some analysts are predicting that McCain will do better than Bush among Latinos.) Clearly, the black vote will shift even more strongly in favor of the Democratic candidate. However, the white voting population is seven times larger than the black voting population. Consequently, a shift in the black vote of seven percentage points is roughly equivalent to a shift in the white vote of one point. Even if Obama were to receive essentially all black votes, which is unlikely, a loss of less than two percentage points of the white vote would be enough to offset these gains.
So the key to the upcoming election is whether white voters will be more, less, or equally likely to vote for Obama as for Kerry. I believe the answer is less likely."
"To develop a profile of Obama's electoral strengths and weaknesses, I examined the CNN entrance and exit polls for the 2008 Democratic primaries in Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These were the states in which the spread between Bush and Kerry in 2004 was three percentage points or less (in either direction). (New Hampshire also belongs on this list, but I could not find polling data for the 2008 primaries in that state.) I selected these states because they are likely to be the critical battlegrounds this fall."
"The polls show that, in general, Obama did especially well among black voters, younger voters (under 45), voters who earn more than $100,000 per year, voters with college and postgraduate degrees, non-religious voters, and self-described liberal voters. In other words, the core constituencies of the Democratic Party. On the other hand, he demonstrated much less appeal to white voters, older voters (ages 45 and up), voters who earn less than $50,000 per year, voters with some or no college education, Catholic voters, and self-described moderate voters. In other words, white working- and middle-class voters -- so-called Reagan Democrats. These voters strongly preferred Hillary Clinton.
Significantly, in the 2004 election, John Kerry performed reasonably well among this group. He won 55 percent of voters who earn less than $50,000. He won 47 percent of voters ages 45 and up. He won 47 percent of voters with no college degree. He won 47 percent of Catholic voters. He won 55 percent of self-described moderate voters. Nevertheless, Kerry lost. If only a few percent of these voters switch to McCain, as I believe they will, Obama cannot win. Yes, tens of millions of Americans (of all colors) will vote for Obama; but more will vote for McCain.
Overall, I predict Obama will receive even less of the popular vote than John Kerry in 2004 (48.3%), and perhaps as little as Michael Dukakis in 1988 (45.7%).
As I wrote last December, "[t]he pundits can talk until they are blue in the face about Obama's charisma and eloquence and cross-racial appeal. The fact of the matter is that Obama has no chance of being elected president in 2008." I am more convinced of this conclusion than ever."
Read the full article here:
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/08/why_barack_obama_will_not_win.html
Written by MiaZ
on 11/2/2008
REPORT SPAM OR ABUSE
I dont think you are as smart as you write, if you think this nation is a conservative nation you are lost we have the most liberal stand point on earth the media says we are conservative for their own device much like religion how else do you explain Hollywood then and the wide audience for Jerry Springer and all the other flagrant vulgarity we see on tv compliment you the suite. We are a nation of sheep with wolf teeth we follow the masses but this year is special the masses don care what you label them so longs as George goes and the red boys get out off office and money comes back to my hard working blue pants im republican in nature but i would be darned if i let McCain bamboozle me with his rhetoric and play on my racist fears my kids mean more to me than his subliminal plays on my ignorant upbringing!!! this year i am voting democrat because i have principles and you guys have to stop praying on peoples emotions some women are men in skirts and viz vi for some men i hope you catch them i am not that dumb good luck fishing and stoking the fires you aught to be ashamed then again you wouldn't have a check $$ like most American's so do your job Written by rob from cajene
on 8/31/2008
REPORT SPAM OR ABUSE
If you guys would have heard the former Dimocratic party chief joking about the hurricane and the timing you wouldn't be voting for this ignorant party of special interests. Hope Steve Scalise kicks Michael Moores ass too! Written by Sid
on 8/31/2008
REPORT SPAM OR ABUSE
yeah, that's a gutsy call, there Jeff. And one I would totally agree with...two days ago. With Sarah Palin in the race, EVERY state is up now for grabs. Prior to McCain's pick, McCain is essentially tied or trailing Obama in every swing state that matters — and too close for comfort in several states like Indiana and Montana the GOP usually wins pretty easily in presidential races. On top of that, voters seem very inclined to elect Democrats in general this election — and very sick of the Bush years. On top of THAT, you have this Sarah Palin character whom even the Republicans don't like. It's very possible she won't even be on the ticket in November. McCain has made a calculation that most voters don’t really care about the national experience or credentials of a vice president, and that Palin’s ebullient personality matters more. History will prove him and the Republicans wrong.
Written by Ronny
on 8/30/2008
REPORT SPAM OR ABUSE
While your at it D.Q. do me a favor and predict the winning lotto numbers for tonite, I could use some pocket change.... Left!! No Right! No!!! Left!!! Left some more!!! No go right!!! Ah shoot, it's Hannah Louisiana time.... Written by
on 8/29/2008
REPORT SPAM OR ABUSE
If John McCain chose a young governor from Alaska instead of Bobby Jindal, I predict Obama will be competitive with McCain in Louisiana. Written by David Quidd
on 8/29/2008
REPORT SPAM OR ABUSE
Crazy thing, Joseph Stalin had a difficult time bringing Dwight D. Eisenhower around to his way of thinking also...... Imagine That!!!!!!! Oh well, maybe the Russians will have a better go at it with Obama...... Cheers!!!!! Written by
on 8/29/2008
REPORT SPAM OR ABUSE
Wow, real soothsayer you are, Crouere. Real bold and groundbreaking news prediction that Obama won't win Louisiana. I bet you were working on this piece for quite a while. Written by clairvoyant
on 8/29/2008
REPORT SPAM OR ABUSE
Louisiana, who cares....Most smart people leave that place after high school, college or some other enlightening experience.
My advice to people is, do what i did and leave now! Save yourselves and your children. Forget Barack and get a life! Then, you can consider whether you should vote for Obama or not. Written by Mike
on 8/29/2008
REPORT SPAM OR ABUSE
Al, You must be right about ignorant people not understanding Obama's appeal. If the white population was as intelligent and highly educated as the black population, the I guess we'd be block voting for Obama in the 95 percentage too. .... If only we could bring all of America to the intelligence level of the ghetto, ahh, wishful thinking. Written by
on 8/29/2008
REPORT SPAM OR ABUSE
Tremendous speech by Obama. He sounded very presidential. Written by Richard P.
on 8/28/2008
REPORT SPAM OR ABUSE
Obama does have a hard time appealing to the ignorant. That's a fact. It's no surprise he has problems with one of the most ignorant states in America. Written by Al
on 8/28/2008
REPORT SPAM OR ABUSE
Despite the hoopla of the Democratic National Convention and the great publicity for Democratic nominee Barack Obama this week, he has not received much of a boost in the public opinion polls. In fact, his poll numbers have declined slightly. The pick of U.S. Senator Joseph Biden has been a big failure and has not helped the ticket at all. According to the National Journal, Barack Obama is the most liberal member of the U.S. Senate, while Biden is the third most liberal member. Since this ticket is so liberal and the American people are starting to focus on the election and the issues, Obama and Biden will have trouble winning this fall. 
