It seems that voters may finally be fed up with Congressman Bill Jefferson (D-New Orleans). A recent poll conducted by the respected survey organization Southern Media and Opinion Research shows that Jefferson is running third, tied with former Councilman and State Representative Troy Carter at 12.4 percent.

The leader is former TV anchor Helena Moreno, who is at the top with 14.9 percent. She is well known to local residents from her seven years as a reporter and anchor at WDSU-TV Channel 6. Moreno will be well funded and has already begun her advertising campaign. She was also aided by the removal of Orleans Parish School Board member Jimmy Fahrenholtz from the race. Now Moreno is the only non-African American candidate remaining in the race. In a large field, she has a good chance to make the run-off if she can garner the majority of the white voters, who comprise 33% of the district.  

Running right behind Moreno is New Orleans Councilman James Carter with 12.7 percent. Carter is a formidable candidate because of his high profile tenure on the City Council. He has been given high marks for his leadership on the crime issue and is seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party.

The poll is not great news for State Representative Cedric Richmond (D-New Orleans), Jefferson Parish Council member Byron Lee and former Nagin staffer Kenya Smith. They are running behind the leading candidates. Fortunately for them the race is just beginning and they have plenty of time to catch up.

What this poll does show is that the end of Bill Jefferson’s political career may be near. On my website, www.ringsidepolitics.com, I am conducting an on-line poll asking voters whether Bill Jefferson will win re-election. Surprisingly, 55 percent of the respondents believe that Dollar Bill has too much baggage and will actually lose this election.

Despite the well publicized indictments and controversy, beating Jefferson will not be a cakewalk. He has served in this seat for 18 years and won this particular election nine times. Clearly, he still has a base of loyal supporters.

This time, however, it seems that the majority of voters have tired of the scandal and criminal behavior that surrounds Jefferson. He has a court date in December and several of his family members are facing charges. For this election, it looks like voters are looking for a congressman that can be focused on the recovery of the region and dealing with the pressing issues of a very poor district and not someone distracted by legal troubles and the prospect of being sent to federal prison.  

Jeff Crouere is a native of New Orleans, LA and he is the host of a Louisiana based program, “Ringside Politics,” which airs at 7:30 p.m. Fri. and 10:00 p.m. Sun. on WLAE-TV 32, a PBS station, and 7 till 11 a.m. weekdays on WGSO 990 AM in New Orleans and the Northshore. For more information, visit his web site at www.ringsidepolitics.com. E-mail him at jeff@ringsidepolitics.com

Bayoubuzz Note:  Here are the poll numbers.  The poll was paid by Troy Carter.  See a different interpretation of the numbers by contributor to Bayoubuzz.  In the opinion of Bayoubuzz, based upon the margin of error of the poll, factoring in the second choice question, both observations can be viewed as being accurate.  Also, a poll is only a snapshot in time.  

SMOR 2936

Louisiana 2nd Congressional District

Democratic Primary Election

8.1.08

14.       If the election for Democratic candidate for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote? (READ NAMES IF NECESSARY)

                                    1ST      2ND

                                    CHOICE         CHOICE

JAMES CARTER      12.7     8.2

TROY C. CARTER   12.4     19.6

WILLIAM JEFFERSON       12.4     4.3

BYRON LEE 7.0       4.6

HELENA MORENO 14.9     9.5

CEDRIC RICHMOND         7.3       7.9

KENYA SMITH        2.3       2.0

(UNDECIDED/DNK/WS)  (SKIP TO Q16) 31.1     12.9

(NO 1ST CHOICE)    31.1

Bayoubuzz Note:  See a different interpretation by a contributor to Bayoubuzz.  This poll was paid for by Troy Carter.  The poll has a margin of error of approximately 5 percent.  Much depends upon the weight that a poll places on the second place choice and the margin of error.  Based upon that analysis, some might say that the race right now is a four person race if one uses this particular poll at this time.