Representative Tim Burns released some good news about his campaign on Thursday.A survey conducted by the polling service American Viewpoint, Inc of Alexandria, VA revealed that Burns is in a statistical deadheat with State Senator Steve Scalise in the First Congressional District GOP runoff on Saturday April 5th.
Forty-one percent of respondents favored Burns to the forty-four percent who backed Scalise.The difference is well within the poll’s statistical margin of error.
Scalise, who led the primary with 48% of the vote, and was considered initially a shoe in to win the Republican primary now faces a 14% undecided vote two weeks prior to election day.
Not all of the news is good for Burns, though.The poll, which was commissioned by the State Representative’s campaign for Congress, shows that Scalise’s hard support remains slightly stronger than Burns’.Thirty-eight percent of respondents said they would “Definitely vote” for Scalise versus 32% for Burns.
However, the Mandeville State Rep. beat the Old Jefferson State Senator on those who say they will vote “Probably Burns” versus “Probably Scalise”, 8% to 5%.Those Leaning towards either candidate, but undecided, remain tied at 1% each.
Geography, according to the poll, still plays a major factor.Fifty-one percent of Northshore voters favor Burns to Scalise’s 33% support; whereas, 28% of the Southshore electorate chose Burns to Scalise’s 59%.
Sixty percent of Republican voters live on the Northshore, and Burns has actively courted the supporters of his fellow Northshore primary rivals, Slidell Mayor Ben Morris and Mandeville Businessman David Simpson.If Northshore voters vote geographically, the State Rep. can best Scalise despite the Senator’s strong primary showing.
Burns was dealt a blow last week when nearly the entire Slidell City Council endorsed Scalise.Morris has not as yet made an endorsement in the race.
In the GOP first primary, Scalise did perform quite badly on the Northshore.In particular, despite the endorsements of Covington State Representative Diane Winston and city’s Mayor and two of the ranking Councilmembers, Scalise had a weak showing in western St. Tammany and throughout most of that parish.Both Burns and Morris bested the State Senator, earning 5,989 and 5,412 votes respectively to his 4,356.Only Mandeville businessman David Simpson did worse with 619 votes.
In the 41 precincts of Washington Parish, Burns bested Scalise, 417 to 295 with Morris almost tied to the Metairie Republican at 234 votes.
Only in Tangipahoa did the Senator’s 1,531 votes exceed the combined sum for his Northshore opponents--837 votes for Burns, 460 for Morris, and 64 for Simpson.
As a contrast on the Southshore, Scalise won by margins that dwarfed his rivals, 9,322 to Burns’ 2,051 and Morris’ 1,110 in Jefferson, 1,033 to 257 and 101 in Orleans, 262 to 80 and 71 in the sliver of St. Charles Parish near Kenner.
Bayoubuzz Note: Bayoubuzz writer Christopher Tidmore has seen the Burns poll and Bayoubuzz will post the poll. Check out front page for poll information. Bayoubuzz has requested Steve Scalise's poll numbers but the Scalise campaign has refused to provide their poll. Burns has accused the Scalise poll as being a "push poll" which Scalise has denied.
