Louisiana Sixth Congressional District Election: Late Moves

By Christopher Tidmore

State Representative Michael Jackson is on the verge of costing the Democrats a Congressional seat they have nearly won—and perhaps giving himself a leg up on capturing it himself in the fall.

In the past week, Jackson began running television ads telling supporters that he will again run for the Sixth Congressional District seat in November, taking public the private whisper campaign that the African-American legislator has conducted over the last few weeks. Few doubt that the timing is calculated to keep Black voters home on Saturday, an act that may cost Rep. Don Cazayoux the 6^th District U.S. House seat.

Turnout is expected to be as low—according to some estimates by the Secretary of State’s office—as 12% of the registered electorate. Low numbers usually favor Republicans, but up until this week, Cazayoux still seemed to have the advantage.

Independent Ashley Casey launched an ad campaign last week that appeared to be drawing disaffected moderate Republicans and Independents away from GOP nominee Woody Jenkins. The socially conservative North Baton Rouge former State Rep. and newspaper publisher had fought a divisive primary battle against the Chief of Staff for the current Congressional incumbent as well as a well known lobbyist from Ascension Parish, and more centrists Republicans still have not forgiven him.

Jenkins won handily in the party runoff, but his victory was tarred by allegations of associations with former KKK Leader David Duke, many largely untrue, as well as implications that the former State Rep. and U.S. Senate candidate was out of step with the politics of the district, a charge he has not been able to shake.

The Sixth District is at best a swing seat for the Republicans. Current Congressman Richard Baker only won re-election by less than 1500 votes against moderate Democrat Marjorie McKeithen several years ago. Baker coined the phrase at the time that there were only two ways to run for the Baton Rouge area dominated seat, “unopposed or running scared”.

Add to the moderate temper of the district the fact that Jenkins was never as popular in East Baton Rouge parish as he was hailed in the rural parts of the district. Since Don Cazayoux lives in New Roads and already won the support of rural voters in his legislative races, it had seemed that the perfect storm of political factors might deny Jenkins the Congressional seat he had desired for so long. The non-partisan Cook Political Report went so far as to reclassify the race from “swing” to “lean Democrat”.

Then, Jackson took his whisper campaign public.

The television commercials actively imply that his voters should wait to cast their ballots. Jackson has said privately for weeks that he would run this time as an Independent in November, putting himself on the ballot when Barack Obama is generating huge African-American turnout. He would prefer to face Jenkins, but did not care if a Democrat held the seat.

The one thing that Jackson said he would not do is endure a closed primary battle once more. As he put it to journalist John Maginnis, "Why endure the primary process when they (white candidates) have the advantage?" he said. "Why not make it one run?"

Many people encouraged Jackson to do that in this contest, noting that in “first past the post” nature of the general election meant that whomever would get the most votes won. No one needed a runoff. However at the time, Jackson worried that such a system would definitely elect a Republican.

The African-American State Rep. has implied in conversations that he believed the national Democratic Party would stay neutral until the general election. His hopes were dashed when the national party sources actively began to campaign for Don Cazayoux as soon as the first party primary ended.

Chastened, Jackson this week decided to return the favor with some of the remaining money in his campaign account.

The ad campaign hits Cazayoux at his weakest point. As a rural candidate who speaks with a slight twang, the New Roads State Rep. has never been overwhelmingly popular with the highly urbanized East Baton Rouge electorate. The fact that Cazayoux lives in an actual plantation has not exactly made the most positive public relations impact in the EBR African-American community, and moderates and Independents, who would otherwise be sympathetic to a Democrat this year, seemed hardly enthused about Cazayoux.

Only Jenkins’ unpopularity with both groups seemed to insure that Cazayoux had a reasonable chance. But, if a sizable number of Black Democrats stay home to wait until autumn and Casey pulls away even a small number of Independents who might have voted for the New Roads State Rep., Jenkins may secure victory on Saturday in spite of all of the factors.

After all, Jenkins, for all of his lack of popularity in his home parish, is from East Baton Rouge, and voters from the Capitol City tend to vote for native sons. Moreover, no one can argue that his core supporters on the right from homeschoolers to pro-life activists to social conservatives are not chronic voters. They will turnout on Saturday, and to them, Woody Jenkins has been a hero for years.

In a 12% percent election, with the other candidates constituencies distinctly demotivated, they could alone provide the proverbial lionshare of what Jenkins needs for emerge victorious.

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