Based upon an Ed Renwick poll for WWL-TV and other CBS affiliates, I believe Bobby Jindal absolutely could win the Gubernatorial election on October 20.However, much depends upon getting-out-the-vote and any last-week controversies that might knock out his full-speed-ahead mission.
The poll was conducted between October 2 and October 8. During that period, various endorsements were made in favor of different candidates.
According to the Renwick poll as reported by the Times Picayune, John Georges and Sen. Walter Boasso are polling at 9 percent, respectively, and Foster Campbell is polling at 7 percent.The combined opponent polling is 25 percent.Jindal received 47 percent which is very close to the top this late in the game.The margin of error is 4.5 percent.In many respects, the proximity of Jindal to the victory mark is very consistent to the Southeastern poll revealed yesterday.
Not that Jindal is an absolute “shoe-in” to victory but he does have his toe, if not half of his foot into the winner’s door.Yes, there are some uncertainties.Four years ago, it appeared that Jindal was heading to a Gubernatorial win against Kathleen Blanco until a last minute television buy cast doubt in minds of the voters.Also, obviously, it did not help him that some in North Louisiana could not lose their racial biases and decided to vote for the woman and not the dark-skinned young man.
The undecided or won’t say number is still very high—25% of the vote.
Also, forty percent of the African American vote (which according to Renwick makes up 30 percent of the Louisiana electorate) are undecided.That undecided African American number appears to equal approximately 12% of the polling population, assuming they are very likely voters to make any difference.
There is also a city-wide election for Council-person-at-large in New Orleans that could energize some of the electorate, but there would need to be a massive vote against Jindal to bring down his African American numbers and a corresponding massive anybody-but-Jindal movement to hurt the front-runner.
And, polls are only a snapshot in time but these by two polls by respectable organizations show that either Bobby Jindal would need to make a major flub (which he is not prone to do), or, his opposition would need to lob a nuclear political bomb in his direction to explode his invincibility.Otherwise, on October 20, he will be making his victory rounds, for sure.
Logic tells you that he has run a stunning campaign, whether one agrees with him as a person, as a politician or with the type of campaign he has run by not debating the issues.
Still, it is amazing that a Republican candidate has been able to turn around the prejudices of some in North Louisiana and has been able to poll so high in the African American community (21%) which has been traditionally Democratic.
Possibly most impressive of all of the information presented by the recent poll is that Renwick said the Jindal voters "appear to be on a crusade."
Jindal is favored by 64 percent of voters who are described as "extremely interested" in the election and 53 percent who describe themselves as "very interested."
There are many other factors that bode in his favor that suggest we are looking at Governor-elect Jindal on election day.
The Republican party and many conservative newsletters and blogs have daily been beating the Jindal drums and will continue to do so.The Louisiana Democratic party and the Democratic-related blogs have been anemic at best in matching its counterparts.
While the poll indicates that while there are still a high number of uncertainties, right now, it appears there’s not enough to slow the Jindal movement.
Also, the Jindal campaign is well-financed to get-out-the-vote during the last week of the campaign.By contrast, the undecided voters and those opposing his campaign have not consolidated their forces to launch a serious anti-Jindal charge.In short, they have been anything but “crusaders”.
The bottom line is there appears to be no facts or movement that would sufficiently demonize Jindal to really drive down his numbers.Plus, while John Georges has made an impressive bid this last month, the articles in the Times Picayune and the Advocate this week revealed inconsistencies related to his gambling interests.Those articles have probably slowed down his momentum and it could be difficult to recover that forward movement to help bring down Bobby Jindal’s numbers.Correspondingly, neither major newspaper has done any investigatory pieces on Bobby Jindal to tarnish his inevitability factor while they did so with John Georges.
Both Jindal and Georges are claiming that the state should embrace for negative campaigns coming at the last minute.In the case of the Jindal opponents, it will have to be a super-duper nuclear blast to derail the Jindal train as it passes through the tunnel of uncertainty into the sunlight of political redemption, four years in the traveling.
Professor, I'm terribly sorry about your loss. My daughter miscarried not that many months after Katrina and it has been devastating for all of us. Written by Harvestmoon
on 10/16/2007
Professor, that's the oddity with the private insurers. They will cover the costs of miscarriages, but will not cover the cost of birth if maternity isn't in the policy (and only Blue Cross offers maternity on 2 plans). Group insurers will cover maternity if the owner of the company chooses to cover maternity. That is the option of the company owner, whether to include birth control and maternity. I'm an insurance agent and am well aware of the facts. Also, with group insurance, if a new employee has an 8 month pregnant wife and the group offers maternity, the insurer has to accept the risk within the eligibiity period of the new employee. As they also have to accept the risk of an employee with cancer. With private insurance, the insurer does not have to accept the risk of anything they choose not to. Private insurance isn't as easily bought as folks think. If a man has had prostate cancer, and it's been taken care of, and he has a clean bill of health...a private insurer will not take him on as a new client for 5 years. It used to be 10 years, but they've brought it down to 5. Written by Harvestmoon
on 10/16/2007
Professor, I am sorry for your loss. My dear wife (departed now 10 years) lost a child, I know how it tore her up. I pray that your family be blessed with children soon! Written by Ole Jarhead
on 10/16/2007
Please let me explain the problem with healthcare today. And, I think you'll find that I do it in a relatively non-partisan way. The first problem is a problem of fiction versus reality. I completely agree that everyone "should" buy their own health insurance. For those who cannot absolutely afford it, the government can help. That would, theoretically, ensure that everyone in America has insurance. But, this is not reality. Many Americans do not, and will not, buy insurance. Why? Because they don't have to. Thanks to EMTALA (Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act), a hospital MUST see any person that walks in to their ER with a problem. People know this. Therefore, they ask themselves, "Why should I pay a few thousand bucks a year for insurance, when I can go to the hospital for free?" This is not just a "poor" phenomenon. Here in Louisiana, the fastest growing population of uninsured people are ages 25-40, employed and making between $25,000 and $75,000 per year! - - - Therefore, the problem boils down to "Who pays for healthcare?" Right now, 2 people pay - those with insurance and hospitals. The government pays some, but they do not even reimburse hospitals for the cost of care in many cases! On those cases, the hospital loses money. Plain and simple. When a person on Medicaid walks into an ER with the flu, the hospital immediately knows that it is going to lose a few thousand dollars. Bingo - a wad of hundred dollar bills, some lighter fluid and a match - poof! But, obviously, hospitals cannot subsidize all of these people on their own. So, where do they get their extra money? - - - This brings us to insurance patients. When an insurance patient comes into a hospital with the flu, the hospital has to charge that person's insurance company (who then passes the charges back to the patient) a few thousand dollars MORE than it costs to treat the flu. That few thousand dollars goes to pay for the Medicaid person in the bed next to them. - - - And therein lies the crux of the situation. It's not fair that responsible people with insurance have to pay for people who choose not to have insurace, right? Of course not. But, are we going to turn that person away at the door? Are we going to say, "Hey, sorry you got in a car wreck. But, you chose not to have insurance for you family. Therefore, you're going to have to let your baby bleed to death in the parking lot. And please don't drip blood on the concrete!" Of course not. - - - The solutions to this are myriad. One interesting solution is to mandate insurance for everyone. Basically, if you do not buy insurance, money is witheld from your taxes/paycheck and you are put onto a government-run program (which will be more expensive for those who can otherwise afford insurance). For those people who can't afford insurance, they will still be eligible for Medicaid/Medicare. On the whole, this should make average costs go down. Because those with insurance are just paying for themselves, insurance rates should decrease. Of course, that's just one solution. - - - You can always try the "socialized medicine" approach, too. But, realize that you're still going to pay for it in taxes. The thing I don't like about that approach is that there is no incentive to be healthy. If you pay for your own care, you realize that your care will be cheaper if you exercize, eat healthy, don't smoke, etc. But, in socialized medicine, there's no financial incentive to doing these things that keep you healthy. In other words, your tax dollars will still go towards treating that crack-addict in the bed next to you! Written by Professor
on 10/16/2007
Harvestmoon - I think you need to recheck your facts. My wife does not have Blue Cross; she was recently pregnant (miscarriage, though); every single charge was covered. I've got yet another health insurer through my work. She would have been covered through mine, also. Plus, I changed policies right in the middle of her pregnancy. But, I completely agree with your ending assessment of reforming healthcare insurance in Louisiana and America. I'll explain a bit more in another post. Written by Professor
on 10/16/2007
Sorry that I got a little bit nasty there, Ladies I do appologize. TW! I am sooo Glad to hear that you got your money FINALLY! I guess they stapled it to the mail snail who died 5 times trying to get to your house! I was fortunate not to have any damage to my home (no its not on wheels for those of you thinking it is.) You and I will Agree to Disagree on the Euro-socialism. I saw it in action and I think its really not that great. Even France is now trying to roll back some of the Socialist laws past in the last 50+ years. I ask, why move left and to something that didn't work? (As we see the Former Euro-Socialist countries doing by moving towards what we have in the U.S.)So we move left, WE decide "well it doesn't work" and we go back to what we had? That would be an Exercise in STUPIDITY my friend. Written by Ole Jarhead
on 10/15/2007
All right, y'all, using someone else's screen name is not Kosher, at all. And you really have to try to type in "Ole Jarhead" - it's not like you could do it by accident - so that's inexcusable. I have written here before that I think the US could use a healthy dose of Western European socialism. If that makes me a socialist, then I'll wear the label with pride. You do realize, of course, that calling something "socialist" does not an argument make? You can't just say "Oh, that's socialism" and assume that you've covered your bases. Surely there are some things that socialism is better at than capitalism, just like there are things that the market handles better than government. The trick is to find that happy medium. The former communist countries are moving to the right to find it, and I'm just maintaining that we should be moving to the left a bit. C'est tout. And Ole Jarhead, we finally got our Road Home money about 6 days ago - 14 days AFTER we had moved into our house. It's a good thing we had the financial means to do the work without it - I truly feel for those who don't make as much money as my wife and I do. TW Written by Tee Dub
on 10/15/2007
OK I DON'T KNOW WHICH OF YOU PECKERHEADS USED MY USER NAME, BUT DON'T DO IT AGAIN! T.W., While I think you are a bit of a socialist, you are entitled to your opinion. I make less than $35,000 a year, I have health, life, and home insurance. I eat and I play within my means. If that means I don't do something some month because I don't have the cash I don't do it. (BTW I have zero credit card debt too.) I really think we as Americans have forgotten how to do that. Written by Ole Jarhead
on 10/15/2007
TW, Glad you finally admit to everyone here that you are a SOCIALIST! Now that you have, it will be alot easier to dismiss the SOCIALIST PROPAGANDA you spout! Written by Ole Jarhead
on 10/14/2007
Let’s talk about health insurance. Here’s a few facts. No private insurer in Louisiana covers the costs of birth control. UNLESS it is prescribed for a reason other than birth control. Yet, the private insurers do cover VIAGRA. So they will make sure a man can get it up and possibly get a woman pregnant, but they won’t pay for birth control and paying for maternity is a whole other story. Here’s the story, last time I checked Blue Cross is the only private insurer that covers maternity. But only if you chose maternity coverage when first buying insurance (as a considerable added monthly cost) and one can only add maternity on the anniversary date of your policy. Here’s another clincher for y’all. Blue Cross will not insure a man buying new coverage, if his wife is pregnant…even if he is not interested in buying coverage for his wife.
The average cost of private health insurance for a family of 4 with a $500 deductible is about $1000 a month, not including maternity. The other few insurers in Louisiana is a bit more than that. That’s $12000. a year. Add that onto the costs of having kids in school. And I’m not even talking about kids in college Who can afford this? But then who can afford not to have insurance. One major illness can wipe a family out financially if they don’t have insurance. People assume that group insurance is so much cheaper. That’s not always the case as it depends on the demographics of the group and the medical history as well. Many small businesses are now finding it too expensive to keep a group policy for their employees.
The insurance industry nationwide needs reform, but Louisiana in particular... since we live, here needs drastic reform.
Written by Harvestmoon
on 10/14/2007
Have you all seen the cost of medical care? Our "Private" system is a complete and abject failure! We spend more per capita on healthcare than ANY OTHER WESTERN DEMOCRATIC NATION and we have MILLIONS of working people who can't afford insurance. Just be intellectually honest - the Republican Party's main goal is to keep the wealth concentrated in the hands of the few who control it all now. And yes, dammit, there needs to be distribution of wealth to those who help create it. The Republicans stand for re-distributing wealth to the top 1% and this is NOT the way a stable society is created. So yes, I do want government to help people, not just kill brown-skinned folks in foreign lands that most rightards didn't know existed until Cheney and the other neo-cons told them they were a threat. Private business is not in the business of helping people, and they DO NOT always run everything more efficiently than government. That's a tired right-wing mantra that the rest of the country is FINALLY catching on to - but we in LA are behind the times and are going to elect that pissant Bobby Jindal who never met a corporate donor he didn't like and never met a government program to help people that he didn't gut. So to hell with Bobby Jindal and to hell with his retarded supporters (I note that you are not among their number, Ole Jarhead - THANKS). Sorry but I have HAD IT with right-wing hacks and their unthinking shyte. The Taft thing was a joke, for Chrissakes. Fils de putain! Written by Tee Dub
on 10/14/2007
TW! While I agree that familes that make $80,000 could be considered "working familes they are CERTAINLY NOT working POOR! why raise the income level sooo high? Why give coverage to ADULTS up to age 25? are 25 yr old not adults? IF they are ADULTS why are they on the SCHIP? At 25 they need to be taking care of themselves! I'll tell you why the Republicans voted against this and why the President VETO'ed it... ITS A BAD BILL!!! This is just one example of YOUR PARTY trying to get EVERYONE on the Government Gravy train!! This has nothing to do with kids it has EVERYTHING to do with getting MORE people DEPENDENT on the U.S. Government! YOUR PARTY LOVES to have people depend on the government even when they DON"T NEED TO! Written by Ole Jarhead
on 10/14/2007
Tee Dub - Beth???? whatever... hate to say this but there is no better sign that a poster's political thinking goes no deeper than press releases when they use the term "working families" - a thoroughly meaningless term developed from focus groups. you're a great example of the national Democratic party's inability to understand long-term historical trends - something the party had under FDR. And since you brought up Taft - he wasn't in power long enough to have any long-term effect. And if you can't grasp the lasting impact Huey had on Louisiana then go back to schoool. Written by Closet
on 10/14/2007
Closet - you give US a break - Beth Courtney is a big-time Republican hack who's married to Bob Courtney, another Republican hack. And what, exactly, have the Republicans done of late? I mean, aside from vetoing a bill to get health insurance for kids from working families, and starting wars under false pretenses, and running up deficits as far as the eye can see, all to give the RICHEST M*&THER F*&I*&S on the planet tax breaks? What planet do you inhabit? Huey Long? HUEY LONG? Should I bring up Taft while we're at it? For God's sakes Man, it's 2007! Everytime I end up responding to conservatives I am reminded of just how f(*king stupid you all are - you can't think your way out of a frickin' sack. Jesus, it's no wonder the country's going down the toilet. We need immigrants just so we can have some thinking people come into this country, 'cause the lot we got now aren't up to snuff. Bunch of idiot rightards everywhere. Cripes. And yes, I'm pissed off. Sorry. Just wasted several hours watching LSU lose. Written by Tee Dub
on 10/13/2007
Sullivan - oh please, give me a freakin break. Starting with Huey Long, the Democratic party in Louisiana has laid waste to this great State through a brutally ruthless totalitarian government that has basically chased almost every business away to Texas and Georgia. Between arrogant, conniving journalists (john hill, carl redmon, beth courtney, ...), trial lawyers (the list is endless), union thugs (victor bussie, bob odom,etc.) and of course the race pimps and their New Orleans patrons (aka the Landrieus), Huey's moronic socialism and thuggish party apparatus has culminated into the Katrina mess that has left us with a failed State. Can we be demoted back to a Federal Territory?? It wouldn't surprise me if the U.S. government is starting to think the Louisiana Purchase was actually a bad deal...... Written by Closet
on 10/13/2007
Btw I am proud to say I voted for Tony G. and not one of the same old crooks we always have. Written by Diaperman
on 10/13/2007
Sounds like Jindal is changing Louisiana for the worst, and he is not even elected governor as of now. Written by Diaperman
on 10/13/2007
Jindal accepted $50,000 from a Colorado based company. A Colorado-based company is making a new push to open a landfill near Alsen, and the group donated heavily to U.S. Rep. Bobby Jindal’s campaign for governor.
Jindal received a total of $50,000 from supporters in Littleton, Colo. — all on Monday.
Littleton-based Louisiana Land Systems is currently applying for an industrial waste landfill permit. The contributors are from allied businesses, their executives, and family members of the executives, according to campaign records.
Written by Tony G
on 10/13/2007
Did you mean "shoo-in", or was your foot in your mouth? Written by unclecj
on 10/13/2007
I'm on a list, The Ballot CLutter, ask John McGinnis. Real classy dude. Written by Tony G
on 10/12/2007
Mais, Rhett'sWife, that was just my point - the fact that the LA Republican Party put up that website shows that they're afraid of Georges. I bet they have poll numbers that show Jindal is losing a fair amount of support to him among the "Country Club Republican" set. And Robert DMS, I agree with you - I find it hard to believe that ANYONE would support the GOP given their record over the last 6 years, but I guess the Bollingers and other über-rich folks just can't accumulate enough money to make them happy. It'd be laughable if it weren't so g.d. tragic. C'est tout. Written by Tee Dub
on 10/12/2007
It saddens me more than anything else to think that Louisiana will choose to give the Republicans so much power, after all the Republicans have done to harm America and the state. Beginning with the theft of the elections by disqualifying voters with illegal techniques on through the lies that brought America into war and into debt to the deprivation of habeas corpus, privacy, and freedom from torture, Republicans have led us into their promised land, which is going to be hell for the rest of us. Senator Vitter, Wendy Vitter, Phyllis Taylor, Joe Cannizzaro, Boysie Bollinger, and other Louisiana Republicans have pooled their considerable wealth with that of Bob Perry, the Houston billionaire who funded the totally false Swift Boat attacks on John Kerry. Now this Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority is attacking Democratic candidates throughout the state, beginning with Mr. Georges recently, planning on negative and vicious campaigns to assure victory for their party. They don't care about the state or about clean government or about justice, they only care about power. Senator Vitter's condemnations of Bill Clinton and Bob Livingston for doing what he was himself doing should have shown Louisianians what Republcans today are doing. But nobody really is looking, so I am very sad. Written by Robert Desmarais Sullivan
on 10/12/2007
Written by
on 10/12/2007
Poor old booby is getting desperate. Written by Diaperman
on 10/12/2007
Well, dears, have you actually looked at who is sponsoring that Georges Gone Wild site.
Paid for by the Republican Party of Louisiana
Not authorized by any Candidate or Candidate's Committee
Now that was copied directly from the Georges Gone WIld Site. Is Bobby afraid of Georges all of a sudden. What is going on dears? Aren't things really getting smarmy. Well, dears, if Mr. Georges advertises himself on that site at My Space
http://www.myspace.com/teamgeorges he is simply taking advantage of showing he is a common man and frankly speaks some truth. You do not see anything outrageous. Frankly, dears, we find some things really humorous. RW might just have to go to My Space herself. LOL. Apparently the Republican Party of Louisiana is searching My Space or Googling. Well ta, ta for now dears. We wonder if Bobby, Pi, Mr. Jindal is on My Space also. Written by RhettsWife
on 10/12/2007
Thanks to Ginny for posting the "Georges Gone Wild" link - while I admit it's a bit hilarious that he had(?) has(?) these "beefcake" photos of himself on his webpage, I'm with Rhett'sWife that there must be some new data that have the Republican Party running scared of him. And it just occurred to me that there IS a way the Republican Party of Louisiana could get me to contribute money to Bobby Jindal - just threaten to e-mail me "beefcake" photos of Bobby if I don't contribute to his campaign, and baby, I'll have whipped that checkbook out so fast you'd have sworn you were watching Bruce Lee in action. TW Written by Tee Dub
on 10/12/2007
While, I agree it is unfair to sterotype North Louisiana, is that what this person did? He said "some", not all, not many, not most. Plus, it is well documented by various experts that North Louisiana did not go for Bobby Jindal because of his ethnicity or skin color. So, where is the beef? Written by Righteous
on 10/12/2007
I really don't appreciate you perpetuating the false stereotype of North Louisianians as racist. Very irresponsible on your part. Blanco was (and still is in my opinion) the better candidate.
You probably will try and vote for George Bush again.
Thank god I don't live below Alexandria. Written by lewis kalmbach
on 10/12/2007
Why all of a sudden is there so much anti-Georges online? It appears that he was on someone's little list. Now on which candidate's list is he? My this race is getting so much more interesting. Written by RhettsWife
on 10/12/2007
Julie is a sore loser....
www.georgesgonewild.com Written by Ginny
on 10/12/2007
Take your marbles and go home ....hahhahhahahahhahahahah
Written by Bill
on 10/12/2007
Please unscribe my email:
julie.bylsma@navy.mil
Thanks! Written by Julie Bylsma
on 10/12/2007
After emailing the person in charge of the Southeastern poll, he was pretty clear when he said that in post-Katrina new orleans it is difficult to calculate who should be included in a poll and that ANY poll results in Louisiana should be taken with more than the usual scientific doubt! Perhaps this is why in the Southeastern poll, only 36 of the people polled are from Louisiana's 2nd district (most liberal) and 121 of those polled are from Louisiana's 1st district (most conservative). Now, do we have access to Renwicks polling data to see if his poll is skewed just like the Southeastern poll appears to be? Written by Dan
on 10/12/2007
Dears, the old saying is correct - THE FAT LADY HAS NOT SUNG YET!!!! My oh my, all of these polls. If the money spent on this campaign had been spent on rebuilding some infrastructure in the city instead, imagine what could be going on right now. Now who will we vote for? Where is that list? Oh now we have our little list. " And 'St--'st--'st--and What's-his-name, and also You-know-who--
The task of filling up the blanks I'd rather leave to you.
But it really doesn't matter whom you put upon the list,
For they'd none of 'em be missed--they'd none of 'em be
missed!" Written by RhettsWife
on 10/12/2007
Well for all those that are wondering Tony G will get my Vote. So to all of you that thought I was beating the "Jindal Drum" and planning to vote for Bobby.... NOPE you were WRONG! Written by Ole Jarhead
on 10/12/2007
Based upon an Ed Renwick poll for WWL-TV and other CBS affiliates, I believe Bobby Jindal absolutely could win the Gubernatorial election on October 20.
