In just a few months, voters across the state will be selecting the next Governor of Louisiana. Yet, at this late point, the Democratic Party is still uncertain if their incumbent governor will be running for re-election. According to sources, Blanco has a poll in the field right now and will make a decision in short order.
Blanco faces low approval ratings, sky high frustration with her “Road Home” plan and continuing questions about her leadership. Polls show her losing to Congressman Bobby Jindal (R-Kenner) in a llandslide.
Of course several months is an eternity in politics and plenty of developments can occur to improve Blanco’s standing, but she is running out of time. The Executive Director of the Louisiana Democratic Party Chris Whittington seems almost hopeful that former U.S. Senator John Breaux will decide to run for governor.
Like the best looking girl in the high school class, Breaux is being courted by all of the Democratic Party insiders, just like he was in 2003 and 2004. In those years, he decided not to run and enter the lucrative world of lobbying. Since that time, he has done very well and many question whether he will forgo that lifestyle to return to public service. There are also serious questions about Breaux’s residency. According to reports from Washington Mardi Gras, Breaux told friends that his attorney is checking into the question of his residency. Breaux has a house in Maryland, but if he has registered to vote in that state, his potential to run for Governor of Louisiana is seriously harmed.
Other potential Democratic candidates for Governor have political problems. Former Congressman Chris John lost his last statewide race for U.S. Senate and could not even force a run-off. Congressman Charlie Melancon (D-Napoleonville) has never won a statewide race and would have to build up his statewide name recognition.
Then there is the potential candidacy of Lt. Governor Mitch Landrieu, who just transferred $433,000 from his mayoral campaign account to a “future election” account. Landrieu would have to overcome questions about his family’s political influence and the tough defeat he suffered in the New Orleans Mayor’s race. However, his poll numbers are still very good and he has enjoyed a rather successful and scandal free tenure in the state’s second position, which is a nice contrast to many other Louisiana politicians who are viewed as incompetent or facing investigation and scandal.
Of course all of this speculation is for naught if Blanco runs for re-election. None of these other candidates, with the exception of Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell (D-Bossier City), will challenge an incumbent Democratic Governor.
Unfortunately for the Democrats Blanco is their weakest candidate and any other prominent Democrat would match up better than the Governor against Republican frontrunner Congressman Bobby Jindal (R-Kenner).
So, the party is in a quandary. Everything is on hold until Blanco makes her decision, but the stakes are very high. In Louisiana, the governor is extremely powerful, controlling a vast number of appointments and a huge state budget. It is a very coveted prize.
The Democratic National Committee is not surrendering the position. There are reports that the party will be spending $3 million in Louisiana over the next nine months to target Jindal and bring down his sky high poll numbers. Some Democratic Party insiders boast that there is plenty of damaging material to publicize to voters in Jindal’s voting record, his resume and even his campaign finance reports.
Despite such brave talk, there is concern in the Louisiana Democratic Party. Not only is control of the Governor’s mansion at stake, but so is the legislature, which the GOP has targeted for the first time in history. A weak Democratic candidate for Governor could possibly lead to the party relinquishing control of the Louisiana Legislature, which has not occurred since Reconstruction.
Democratic Party insiders know the situation and are anxiously awaiting Blanco’s decision. The incumbent is in trouble, just like Governor Dave Treen in 1983. In that year he decided to run for re-election even though polls showed his losing big time. He would up getting defeated 63-37%. Polls show Blanco losing in a similar landslide. Will she make the same decision or hope for a miraculous political turnaround? We should know the answer soon.
Jeff Crouere is a native of New Orleans, LA and he is the host of a Louisiana based program, “Ringside Politics,” which airs at 8:30 p.m. Fri. and 10:00 p.m. Sun. on WLAE-TV 32, a PBS station, and Noon till 2 p.m. weekdays on several Louisiana radio stations. For more information, visit his web site at
www.ringsidepolitics.com. E-mail him at
jeff@ringsidepolitics.com.
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