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Article Written on: Monday-August-13-2007 BuzzBoards Calendar Contact Advertise About
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Poll: Louisiana Bobby Jindal With Substantial Lead In Governor Race

Written by: BayouBuzz Staff

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According to the most recent statewide poll, performed by SMOR and Bernie Pinsonat or Southern Media Research, Bobby Jindal has a substantial lead in the Louisiana Governor’s race.  The poll does include Ray Nagin as a possible candidate which reduces Jindal’s numbers to 60 percent.  Walter Boasso is the next leading candidate with 14.3 without Nagin as a candidate.  Based upon the poll, if the election were held at the time of the polling, Bobby Jindal, a Republican, would win in the first primary.

 

 

 

Governor’s Race Analysis August 2007

 

Congressman Bobby Jindal continues to maintain a commanding lead over his three major opponents.

Bobby Jindal........... 63.0%

Walter Boasso......... 14.3%

Foster Campbell........ 4.4%

John Georges............ 1.3%

Undecided/WS........ 17.0%

 

Bobby Jindal is getting 75.1% of the total white vote – more than enough to win in the primary and avoid a runoff.

 

Voter’s impressions of candidates – favorable or unfavorable

73.2% of all voters in Louisiana have a favorable impression of Bobby Jindal. He receives an amazing 67% very favorable impression from all white voters. His somewhat favorable impression by white voters is 18.9% - giving him a total favorable impression by white voters of 85.7%.

State Senator Walter Boasso has spent millions on television attacking Bobby Jindal. Unfortunately for Walter Boasso, he is now viewed unfavorably by 42.1% of all white voters and his target Bobby Jindal is still 85.7% favorable with the same white voters.   - Boasso’s televisions ads have not hurt Bobby Jindal.

62% of Louisiana voters are less likely to vote for any candidate for governor who owns companies selling video poker machines.

Candidate John Georges is receiving only 1.3% and he owns businesses involved the video poker industry

Mayor Ray Nagin as a candidate for Governor

Adding Mayor Ray Nagin as a candidate produced the following results:

Bobby Jindal........... 60.3%

Ray Nagin............... 10.5%

Walter Boasso......... 10.0%

Foster Campbell........ 3.3%

John Georges............ 1.5%

Undecided/WS........ 14.4%

 

Mayor Ray Nagin moves into second place and is likely to receive 80% plus percent of all black voters. If there is a runoff it is likely Mayor Ray Nagin would face Jindal in the runoff.  70% of all black voters have a favorable impression of Nagin. 80% of all white voters have an unfavorable impression.

Louisiana Voters Rate US Senator David Vitter’s Job Performance

Strongly approve..... 28.7%

Somewhat approve.. 38.0%

Somewhat disapprove 11.4%

Strongly Disapprove 11.1%

Undecided/WS........ 10.7%

Voters apparently like David Vitter’s performance as their U.S. Senator – 66.7% is a strong rating.  Vitter’s image of not being one of the good old boys of Louisiana politics is more important to voters than recent revelations and speculation concerning his admitted “serious sin”.

    

 

 

 

Prepared by:

 

Southern Media & Opinion Research, Inc.

727 Spain Street

Baton Rouge,  Louisiana  70802

Tel:    (225) 383-4509

Fax:   (225) 343-3745 

 

August 2007 

 

Public Opinion Survey

LOUISIANA VOTERS


ABOUT THE POLL

 

 

 

   This statewide poll was developed and conducted by Southern Media & Opinion Research, Incorporated.

 

   Interviews for this statewide poll were completed by telephone with 600 likely Louisiana voters from Friday, August 3, 2007, through Thursday, August 9, 2007.

 

   The overall margin of error for the statewide statistics obtained from the survey data is not greater than plus or minus 4.0 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.  In other words, there is a 95% certainty that the statistics presented from the results obtained on this survey of 600 likely voters statewide will not be more than 4.0 percentage above or below the figure that would be obtained if all of the likely voters in the state would have been interviewed.

 

The sample error may be larger for subgroup responses based on attitudinal and demographic variables such as respondents' by area, age, etc.  There are other sources of potential error which cannot be calculated including question wording and order of question presentation.

 

   An interval sample design was used to select telephone numbers from a sample frame of telephone numbers for likely voter households.

 

   Respondents were assigned to one of four geographic areas based on their parish of residence.  The four geographic areas along with the parishes comprising those areas are:

 

New Orleans metropolitan area,  (includes Jefferson, Orleans, Plaquemines, St. Bernard, St. Charles, St. John the Baptist, St. Tammany and Washington parishes);  Florida-River Parishes, (includes Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Pointe Coupee, St. Helena, St. James, Tangipahoa, West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana parishes);  Acadiana-southwest, (includes Acadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Evangeline, Iberia, Jefferson Davis, Lafayette, Lafourche, St. Landry, St. Martin, St. Mary, Terrebonne and Vermilion parishes); North Louisiana, (includes Bienville, Bossier, Caddo, Caldwell, Catahoula, Claiborne, Concordia, DeSoto, East Carroll, Franklin, Grant, Jackson, LaSalle, Lincoln, Madison, Morehouse, Natchitoches, Ouachita, Rapides, Red River, Richland, Sabine, Tensas, Union, Vernon, Webster, West Carroll and Winn parishes).

 

   A quota ensuring representative voter participation by sex in the study was imposed.  A statistical weighting procedure was employed to normalize the sample to the voter population based on voter sex and race.


Governor’s Race Analysis August 2007

 

Congressman Bobby Jindal continues to maintain a commanding lead over his three major opponents.

 

Bobby Jindal............................... 63.0%

Walter Boasso............................ 14.3%

Foster Campbell........................... 4.4%

John Georges............................... 1.3%

Undecided/WS........................... 17.0%

 

Bobby Jindal is getting 75.1% of the total white vote – more than enough to win in the primary and avoid a runoff.

 

Voter’s impressions of candidates – favorable or unfavorable

 

73.2% of all voters in Louisiana have a favorable impression of Bobby Jindal. He receives an amazing 67% very favorable impression from all white voters. His somewhat favorable impression by white voters is 18.9% - giving him a total favorable impression by white voters of 85.7%.

 

State Senator Walter Boasso has spent millions on television attacking Bobby Jindal. Unfortunately for Walter Boasso, he is now viewed unfavorably by 42.1% of all white voters and his target Bobby Jindal is still 85.7% favorable with the same white voters. - Boasso’s television ads have not hurt Bobby Jindal.

 

62% of Louisiana voters are less likely to vote for any candidate for governor who owns companies selling video poker machines.

Candidate John Georges is receiving only 1.3% and he owns businesses involved in the video poker industry.

 

Mayor Ray Nagin as a candidate for Governor

 

Adding Mayor Ray Nagin as a candidate produced the following results:

 

Bobby Jindal............................... 60.3%

Ray Nagin.................................. 10.5%

Walter Boasso............................ 10.0%

Foster Campbell........................... 3.3%

John Georges............................... 1.5%

Undecided/WS........................... 14.4%

 

Mayor Ray Nagin moves into second place and is likely to receive 80% plus percent of all black voters. If there is a runoff it is likely Mayor Ray Nagin would face Jindal in the runoff.  70% of all black voters have a favorable impression of Nagin. 80% of all white voters have an unfavorable impression.

 

Louisiana Voters Rate US Senator David Vitter’s Job Performance

 

Strongly approve......................... 28.7%

Somewhat approve..................... 38.0%

Somewhat disapprove................. 11.4%

Strongly Disapprove.................... 11.1%

Undecided/WS........................... 10.7%

 

Voters apparently like David Vitter’s performance as their U.S. Senator – 66.7% is a strong rating.  Vitter’s image of not being one of the good old boys of Louisiana politics is more important to voters than recent revelations and speculation concerning his admitted “serious sin”.


 

 

 

 

 

FREQUENCY RESPONSES—WEIGHTED BY SEX AND RACE

SAMPLE SIZE (n=600)

 

 

·               Elections for statewide elected officials and state legislators will be held this fall. As I mention the names of some people who may run for Governor, please tell me if your impression of that person is favorable or unfavorable (very or somewhat):

                                                 VERY    SOME    SOME    VERY  (DNK

                                                 FAVOR   FAVOR   UNFAV   UNFAV  /WS)

  • Congressman Bobby Jindal, a Republican.... 54.3... 18.9.... 6.8... 15.6.. 4.4
  • Public Service Commissioner

      Foster Campbell, a Democrat................ 7.3... 25.9... 13.7... 15.5. 37.6

  • State Senator Walter Boasso, a Democrat.... 9.4... 27.6... 17.2... 17.4. 28.3
  • New Orleans businessman John Georges,

      a Republican............................... 3.8... 18.4... 13.6... 15.0. 49.3

  • New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin,

      a Democrat................................ 12.4... 17.5... 15.5... 49.2.. 5.3

 

 

·               If the election for Governor were held today      WALTER BOASSO.......... 14.3

     between Walter Boasso, Foster Campbell,           FOSTER CAMPBELL......... 4.4

     John Georges and Bobby Jindal, for whom           JOHN GEORGES............ 1.3

     would you vote?                                   BOBBY JINDAL........... 63.0

                                                      (UNDEC/DNK/WS)......... 17.0

 

 

·               If Ray Nagin were a candidate for Governor,       WALTER BOASSO.......... 10.0

     would you vote for Walter Boasso, Foster          FOSTER CAMPBELL......... 3.3

     Campbell, John Georges, Bobby Jindal,             JOHN GEORGES............ 1.5

     or Ray Nagin?                                     BOBBY JINDAL........... 60.3

                                                      RAY NAGIN.............. 10.5

                                                      (UNDEC/DNK/WS)......... 14.4

 

 

·               Would you be more likely or less likely to        MORE LIKELY............. 7.9

     vote for a candidate for Governor who was         LESS LIKELY............ 62.5

     involved in businesses that sold video            (DNK/WS)............... 29.6

     poker machines?

 

 

·               Do you approve or disapprove of the job           STRONGLY APPROVE....... 28.7

     David Vitter is doing as U.S. Senator?            SOMEWHAT APPROVE....... 38.0

     (strongly or somewhat)                                                                                        SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE.... 11.4

                                                      STRONGLY DISAPPROVE.... 11.1

                                                      (DNK/WS)............... 10.7

 

 

 

 

Note: Statistics may not total 100.0 due to rounding.

 



 

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comments

Why hasn't Boasso done something to straighten the state out while serving these past 12 years?No plan that I have heard, just those dumb commercials with the cutout of an opponent.

Written by North Louisiana Voter on 8/21/2007

Merci becoup mon Ami!

 Written by Ole Jarhead on 8/15/2007

Mais, cher, that may be true for English, mais en français, the decking by the train is a quay. I get myself in trouble après mélanger les deux langues, si tu connais quoi je suis après dire.

 Written by Tee Dub on 8/15/2007

Ohh I guess this will be one of those things that we agree to disagree on! OHH and if he "Missed the Train" he would be standing in the station or on the platform, if he missed the boat he would be on the Quay.... Silly Liberal!

 Written by Ole Jarhead on 8/15/2007

Hey Ole Jarhead, I wrote you a note awhile back on another thread, but you must have missed it. The trip was good and productive, and I ate way too much good food, but it was a long time to be away from my family, and it's great to be back in my home country, the country I love! Now with regard to the issue at hand, let me reiterate that I think we could all name politicians from any political party you could name who have never had a private-sector job. My main problem with Jindal in this area is his short attention span. He apparently gets bored with jobs very quickly - the longest time he's held any job is his current one in Congress, and he's only been there since 2004 (and he's already ready to bail on it). He has national aspirations, I'm sure, but his redneck conservatism isn't going to play well in the country at large. I hate to be the bearer of "bad news" to you conservatives, but our country is slowly lurching in a more liberal direction, especially (but not exclusively) with regard to social issues. Bobby's done missed that train, baby; he's left standing on the quay.

 Written by Tee Dub on 8/15/2007

Mr. Pinsonat's response did not answer the question -- who, or what, paid for the poll?

 Written by Inquiring Mind on 8/15/2007

TW!! how was your trip! good I hope! Now you can't have it both ways! IF you want to point out that Jindal has little outside experience, and you want to use that as an issue against Jindal, don't get mad when I point out how little outside experience people like the Kennedy's the Edward's or the Landrieu's have, (Not to mention Brother Bill.)YES! Ray Ray has been awful as mayor but look who his examples are, he really is no worse than "Katrina" Mary Landrieu or "Crazy" Kathleen Blanco! He made LOTS of mistakes and in MY OPINION (only mine folks) he is culpable for every death in N.O.! Look at C.Ray, His posturing got the citizens of N.O. NOTHING! Gov Blanco sat by rung her hands! Sen Landrieu, wanted a blank check, and when she didn't get it what did she do? Threatens to punch the President in the nose! (Yeah real Grown ups) His examples are not shinning stars in my opinion. I know you don't like him TW and thats cool, we will just have to agree to disagree. ohhh and WELCOME HOME!!!

 Written by Ole Jarhead on 8/14/2007

Now Ole Jarhead, let's not get into a p*ssing contest about politicians not having private sector experience - after all, Nagin had plenty of business experience, and well, you know how that worked out. HOWEVER, with regard to the issue at hand, i.e., Bobby Jindal, if his résumé were to come across my desk, I'd be hesitant to hire him. He has not worked outside of government, nor does he keep any one job for any significant length of time. He doesn't seem to have the attention span for it, which is just one of the multiple reasons I think he would make a terrible governor.

 Written by Tee Dub on 8/14/2007

Now you dems screaming ohh Bobby never had a real job! lets see had any of the Landrieu's? the Edwards?... mmm Breaux? had jobs that weren't connected to the public dole? Nationally I can think of some that never worked outside the public venue. (Kennedy, Teddy and his two boys one still in congress, ohh Clinton Bill not Hill, to name a few) you should stop before you embarass yourselves!

 Written by Ole Jarhead on 8/14/2007

OK, "Professor" - here's what I was talking about with regard to healthcare - in order to "balance" the DHH budget, Jindal, in part, shuttered health clinics across the state - the end result? As I posted elsewhere on this site (http://www.bayoubuzz.com/News/Louisiana/Politics/Governor_race/Louisiana_Elections_Buzz__Democratic_Party_Fact_Or_Smear__4401.asp and be sure to read Dan's comments there, too): Louisiana went from 9th in the nation in percentage of children immunized in 1995 to 31st in the nation in percentage of immunized children in 1999 (and it kept on falling after that). Jindal presided over the very cuts that led to this drop; he was head of DHH from 1996-1998 (that's actually a fairly long time for him to stick with one job, btw). Immunizing kids is the right thing to do from a moral perspective, and it's also the right thing to do from an economic perspective, since sick kids ultimately end up costing the state more in the end. And that's just the tip of Jindal's healthcare iceberg. Jindal's huge PR machine is always plugged in and always chugging away, and it has many people across the state thinking that he saved healthcare, but don't forget that wheelchair-bound Republican doctor in Blanco's ads - the truth is that Jindal's changes at DHH were terrible, and by the time people realized it, he was long gone, having moved on to public sector job no. 16, or whatever number it is on his résumé.

Written by Tee Dub on 8/14/2007

Isn't he one of the ones that voted to decrease the funding to LACHIP? If you're going to tout his supposedly good things be prepared to learn about the bad. I have a list of votes that were against Louisianans. I'm about one ting, the truth, it will be a hard task for people to trust their politicans again. The Ethics Bill on the floor last session would have put Louisiana #1 in the nation. Unfortuantely we walked away with nothing. I will not stand here and lump all State Reps and State Senators as corrupt or fiscally irresponsible, I will submit to you that I look forward to working with them to pass a Bill in Ethics that can be continously improved on for the betterment of our political system and our state.

Written by Tony G on 8/14/2007

You want plans? Check out Bobby's 31 Point Ethics Plan. Look for his Healthcare Plan, which will steer this state in the right direction. BTW, you say "he wrecked our healthcare"? Pray tell what you base this upon? He was not the one who agreed to rebuild a 500 bed Charity hospital in a city that already has more beds per citizen than any other Medicaid district in the state. He was not the one who opposed mandating health insurance for all people. He was not one of the ones who supports and upholds healthcare initiatives that ensure the State pays for the healthcare for millions of people. He is not the one who is right now proposing to cut $22 billion from our nation's hospital reimbursement (which equates to rougly $300 million over the next 5 years that Louisiana hospitals will lose). You want to talk about healthcare - we can talk about healthcare. I've done my homework. Healthcare accounts for a larger portion of the state's payroll than any other single industry ($7.8 billion, as opposed to the next highest of $4.4 billion for Retail Trade). Bobby will ensure that this state's priorities are correctly aligned - instead of lining his friends' pockets!

 Written by Professor on 8/14/2007

Independents need to know there are two candidates out there running not as a Republican or Democrat.

 Written by Tony G on 8/14/2007

The results do not indicate what percentage of the black vote Jindal is getting which historically has inflated GOP candidates numbers unrealistically. Also Boasso's negatives are coming from republicans unhappy with Boasso's switch to the democrats and his attacks on Jindal. i would be curious to know the partisan makeup of the sample- what percentage of democrats,Republicans and independents.

 Written by Dave Quidd on 8/14/2007

Bernie, I respect the work you. All I ask is the same consideration. There are eight announced candidates, each spending money and time in their effort. Obviously some more than others. I believe that the citizens of Louisiana should have an accurate view of the field. If I poll <1% all I can say is that the poll was accurate and fair. I have more work to do. I have had three supporters that got called wanting to know why my name wasn't mentioned. If my opinion of calling it a bogus poll was insulting, all I can say is we both feel the same way.

 Written by Tony G on 8/14/2007

Ill just wait to see the polling data after more commercials and other information is released about Jindal. Let the people see how they have been fooled by Jindal and his misleading campaign machine.

Written by Dan on 8/14/2007

Want some facts: SMOR has been conducting surveys since 1984 on Governor races - we do not work for any candidate - never have - name one poll we published that was not accurate in its prediction with in margin of error or what poll done by Renwick for WWL TV that did not mirror SMOR's results. The last survey of the 03 governor's race by SMOR showed Blanco winning by two - she won by 4. That fact was published in the fax weekly by John Maginnes. So let me see- SMOR who has been polling for about 26 years and has built a sold very good reputation by runing bogus polls - get a life!

Written by pinsonat on 8/14/2007

COME ON, STEVE, BE A REPORTER.....WHO PAID FOR THE POLL????

 Written by mno on 8/14/2007

Looks like the people of Louisiana wantt some of the same thing they got when Katrina hit. Mr. Bush gave them the shaft and they vote Republican again. You get what you ask for!

 Written by Darlene Zelechowski on 8/14/2007

He may just win the office by sitting back, not saying anything to rile any constituencies, all the while letting his huge PR machine play the state media like a pipe organ. My Dad (a registered Republican) was pressured by my uncle (a former officer in the state Republican Party) to have Bobby Jindal come speak to his civic organization. All they got from Jindal was 20 minutes of canned, rehearsed platitudes and no time for questions. The guy is all smoke and mirrors - unfortunately, the "Professor" is probably correct about one thing, that he will be our next governor, but he will be a disaster, and he'll wreck the Ship of State just like he wrecked healthcare. I wish people in Louisiana would wake up and see what a phony, self-righteous, and completely self-interested hack this guy is, but it may already be too late.

 Written by Tee Dub on 8/14/2007

What a bogus poll. I mean, they even used statistics and stuff! And, what's this with not including Bozo the Clown - he's a viable candidate! Oh wait, they did include him - Nagin. Despite every single poll showing Jindal winning in the primary, those who want the state to remain stagnate still say that "someone else can win." I got $10 that says that there's going to be some kind of a recount push when Jindal wins by 60% in the primary. --> People, it's time to get used to it. Most of us are sick of the same old, same old here. We want someone new, with better ideas and some inkling of how to impliment them. We want someone who is not saying just "we need to get out of last place" or "we need to raise ourselves to the average" - we want someone who is saying "we want to be first". You know Jindal is going to win - it's time to figure out how you can help him move the state beyond what it has ever been.

 Written by Professor on 8/14/2007

I cant believe that the undecided is only 17%. Not what I am hearing on the street. H. Boudreaux

 Written by henri boudreaux on 8/14/2007

Bogus poll, it lacks all the candidates.

Written by Tony G on 8/13/2007

It is easer to call Jindal Governor, than to hold your nose and change Vitter.

 Written by Diaperman on 8/13/2007

Pinsonet gives new meaning to "madam". Vitter had the Washington and New Orleans madam and Jindal has Pinsonet as his political prostitute. Pinsonet should be ashamed of this set of lies. But, I think it is time for the mainstream media and Bayou Buzz to do a real poll and stop giving any credence to this man who is nothing but a mouthpiece for Jindal and the republican attack machine. Pinsonet's credibility is now in the toilet.

Written by cajunland on 8/13/2007

Who paid for this poll? I'm certain that this was not done because someone at the pollster's office was overly-bored and looking for something to do.

 Written by Inquiring Mind on 8/13/2007

Well, this race is still too early to call, however, Jindal does have the upper hand and looking at this poll, the Dems may have to start getting used to saying:"Governor Jindal". I say if the numbers are like this at the end of next month, or haven't moved much, then we should go ahead and call this one for Jindal.

 Written by Louis La Guardia on 8/13/2007

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