In the pre-Gustav edition of Bayoubuzz.com, this website predicted that the Hurricane would likely delay the Saturday, September 6th, 2008 Democratic Primary in the Second Congressional District—a move that had serious implications to several of the candidates.
By Executive Order on Thursday, Gov. Bobby Jindal declared the September elections “hereby postponed indefinitely and shall be rescheduled as soon as practicable”.
According to the Secretary of State’s office, the Governor plans to set the election dates, at their request, for the Democratic and Republican Primaries, as well as the general, as follows: the 1st District race (Oct. 4th primary; November 4th general), the 2nd District race (Oct. 4th primary; Nov. 4th runoff; Dec. 6th or Nov. 4th general), the 4th District race (Oct. 4th primary; Dec. 6th or Nov. 4th general), and the 5th District race (Oct. 4th primary; Nov. 4th general).
The greatest implications, of course, come in the Second Congressional District contest, where candidate Helena Moreno would find herself in a far different runoff than she ever foresaw.Ironically, though, the possibility of such a scenario as printed in this newspaper last week brought harsh response from the Secretary of State’s office.
The implication on Friday, August 29th that the elections the elections might be delayed until the previously scheduled October runoff was declared “impossible” last Friday by representatives of the Louisiana Secretary of State’s office—despite observations by this website that the devastation wrought by a major storm would make it, from an electrical, logistical, and financial standpoint nearly impossible to mount an election any sooner.
A Deputy to Sec. State Jay Dardenne said definitively that any delay of the election would come before the October 4th runoff.
Now, thanks to Jindal’s Executive Order—at Secretary Dardenne’s request—he and his office have reversed that position, much to the potential determent of Democratic candidate Helena Moreno, and to the possible advantage of Cedric Richmond.
The former WDSU television personality hails from a successful oil family, and has managed through familial connections to effectively self-finance her race in the Democratic primary.On the surface, it would appear that a delay would favor her candidacy over her nearly financially exhausted opponents.However, it potentially does the opposite.
Running in a very low turnout primary in September, with a runoff in October, meant that the sole Caucasian candidate was a viable contender.Whites actually constitute the major of super chronic Democratic voters according to some estimates post-Katrina.Even if the actual Caucasian turnout was a mere plurality in a October runoff, total attendance at the polls would be low enough that just a few crossover middle class African-American voters could propel her to Congress.
Or at least to a token general election where Moreno’s only real competition would be a Vietnamese Republican in one of the most African-American Democratic districts in the nation.
Yet, if that November election is the Democratic Party Runoff where Moreno would face an African-American, even Bill Jefferson, the huge Black turnout for Barack Obama would doom any white candidate for office in Orleans Parish.It is a dilemma that faces white DA candidates like Cannizzaro and Ralph Capitelli.Jason Williams’ youth and lack of experience would pose less of a liability if nearly 100% of African-Americans turnout to vote for the potentially first Black president.
In an October runoff, Moreno is the favorite under many forecasts to emerge victorious.With a plurality of super chronic voters being Caucasian, a low turnout Democratic runoff favors her.A general election with a potential 95% Black turnout, certainly does not
A delay to October, though, is a likely proverbial Godsend for State Representative Cedric Richmond.In the hours before Gustav, Richmond earned the endorsements of The Louisiana Weekly, the state’s largest African-American newspaper, and Gambit Weekly, its largest Independent newspaper.
A week previous, Richmond, a sever underdog at the commencement of the contest, had won the backing of the state’s largest daily the Times-Picayune, thus doing what few if any candidates have ever accomplished.The State Representative won the trifecta of endorsements that unknown candidates (like Ray Nagin in his first race) have used to shoot past other contenders in a divided field and win.
The problem Richmond had was time and money.Like most of his African-American opponents, he was nearly out of the latter, and consequently, had little time to get out the message that the regions major publications favored his candidacy—a possible knockout punch in the closely divided Democratic field.
On the Saturday before the election, Richmond had planned a major street and grassroots outreach effort, with sign-wavers and door-knockers.As Gustav neared, though, the city emptied, as did his campaign workers.
Had the election been delayed a week, the impact of the endorsements might have been minor.Yet, with a month to trump them, and the time to show the editorials to contributors, Richmond may yet make himself into a frontrunner.
The new secretary of state Jay Dardene should consider resigning. Even if you could make a case for postponing New Orleans election, the election in Shreveport was also postponed. This is stupid. There was nothing but sunshine up there the whole time. The 4th and 5th congressional elections should have gone on. This is a plan by the republicans to avoid the Obama turnout on Nov 4th and hence force democrats into a low turnout December runoff. Although, the republican Dardene stated his inabilities by failing to do his job, it was only JINDAL who could sign the order. And he did. Dirty politics!!! Dirty, dirty, dirty!!! Dardene could not do in the sunshine what Al Ater did in a destroyed City of New Orleans when they held many elections and government continued. Dardene should resign! Today!
Written by Cajun Joe
on 9/6/2008
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