The state Democratic Party's hopes this fall of winning two congressional seats long held by Republicans could be dashed by a potential crippling revolt within its base.
If Barack Obama wins the presidential nomination, Democratic candidates in Louisiana and other states could be swept into office by a massive African-American turnout. Yet some black legislators here have their own ideas about who should ride Sen. Obama's wave.
Sen. Lydia Jackson of Shreveport, in the 4th District, and Rep. Michael Jackson of Baton Rouge, in the 6th District, say they are considering running for Congress in the fall as independents. As such, they would go directly onto the November ballot without having to survive one or two Democratic primaries against better-funded white candidates.
Democrats in the 7th Congressional District haven't found a challenger to Congressman Charles Boustany, R-Lafayette, and might not if Sen. Don Cravins Jr., D-Opelousas, also goes the independent route. "We're just thinking about it," he said. "but it kind of makes sense."
African-American voters comprise 31 percent of the 4th District, 30 percent of the 6th and 24 percent of the 7th.
The damaging effects on Democrats might be felt as early as in this Saturday's special election in the 6th District.
Michael Jackson, who lost in the Democratic runoff, is running television commercials not to endorse his party's nominee Don Cazayoux but to declare to supporters that he is running again in the fall. He told me he intends to seek the full term whether or not Cazayoux wins the special election, which is less likely without a strong black vote that Jackson is doing nothing to encourage.
Jackson sees little point in running again as a Democrat, since local and Washington contributors overwhelmingly favored Cazayoux in the primary and the runoff.
"Why endure the primary process when they (white candidates) have the advatnage?" he said. "Why not make it one run?"
Cravins, who saw his father fail to get established Democratic support in a 2004 congressional race, sees little point in trying to do the same. If he can't get the financial and organizational support of Washington Democrats, said Cravins, "Then I don't need their political baggage, because I'm pro-life and pro-gun."
What so threatens the historic alliance within the state Democratic Party is a law passed last year that was supposed to strengthen both major parties. The return to party primaries for federal elections only was designed to make it easier for Democrats and Republicans to settle on consensus candidates before facing each other in the general election. But the new law also offered a short cut for independents to qualify directly for the general election.
Combined with the independent candidate strategy, Obama's candidacy offers an historic opportunity for higher office that black politicians realistically have not had before and might not get again for awhile.
They are not alone in seeing the possibilities. Republicans are pinching themselves at the prospect of a Democratic split handing victory to them, even with less than 50 percent of the vote. There will be no runoff after the general election in November, even if no one wins a majority.
The legislators acknowledge that their candidacies could cause the Democrats to lose elections that could otherwise be won. They see that as no less fair than their ambitions being limited by their skin color.
Democratic leaders would point to Obama's success as proof that qualified African-Americans can succeed in party primaries. But, lately, he has struggled to win over blue-collar and rural white voters from Sen. Hillary Clinton. Exit polling in the Pennsylvania primary showed that voting along racial lines is not confined to the South.
And Louisiana's black independent movement might not be confined to the House. If Democrats in the 4th and 6th fail to win seats long held by Republicans, nothing is lost. But in the upcoming U.S. Senate race, it would be far more serious for Sen. Mary Landrieu should former state Sen. Cleo Fields or some other well-known African-American chooses to qualify as an independent.
The potential Democratic nightmare could be an unintended consequence of the return to party primaries. Or maybe not. After all, Cleo wrote the law.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>The issue of this article is not Bobby Jindal.<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Well Ralphie me lad,,,,,,,, it is about Piyush ‘a.k.a. Bobby’ Jindal,,, and it is about a whole lot more…… You say - - - >>>>>>>>>>>>>> It is that the democratic coalition of blacks, union members, liberals and special interests is splintering.<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<????????? Splintering?????? Nah, hemorrhaging perhaps, but certainly not splintering….. To say splintering would imply that perhaps there is the formation of another group occurring, and that is not the case, because no matter where those ‘splinters’ go, there they are………….>>>>>>>>>>>>> The abandonment of the party by power-hungry blacks is unstoppable.<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Power-hungry ‘blacks”???????? Unstoppable?????????? Really now………. And perhaps thirdly “The abandonment of the party”” ??????????? I would say that those folks are very well aware of what the ‘party’ is supposed to be, and they are getting no satisfaction…. And I do not see any abandonment going on, perhaps reevaluation, but certainly no abandonment….. The ‘splinters’ you speak of are perceiving double talk, double standards, and insincerity behind the empty promises and statements being made….. Black folks aren’t quite as stupid as you would like to think they are….. In fact, black folks, much like white folks etc., etc., etc. can disagree on something at the drop of a hat in relation to their level of understanding or experience on the subject…… and yes, it would appear black folks have enough of an understanding and experience on the subjects being presented to them that they are throwing their hands up in the air in perplexion and frustration because there is no action or actions that seem evident in the lofty words tossed about by both the Oblah-blah and Hilly-Squinten crews…… Especially when it comes to the desire for some kind of ‘Change’. Perhaps they are tired of the canned ‘Grapefruit juice’ they are presented and would rather some ‘Orange Juice’ instead. Because it all comes down to an understanding of what is good for people, as well as ‘TASTE’, ‘ENJOYMENT’, ‘VALUE’, and ‘SMOOTHNESS’, “SATISFACTION”, “THE QUENCHING OF THIRST IN A HEALTHY MANNER”. Race isn’t the question, gender isn’t the root of the subject, it is a combination of various understandings on THE issues that are put in their glass for them to drink….. So, is the glass half empty, or is it half full? It is neither, it simply has the wrong contents in it…………………………. Weak Kool-Aid best…….. Piyush? Well, he was only one of two viable candidates presented for a vote……. And he, just like Oblah-blah is a prop that has been presented instead of realistic consternation on what is really the most good for the whole….. He is a special interest poster child……… What do Americans really want? Well, jobs, a home they can afford, crime and violence free neighborhoods, drugs run out of the country, AND THE ABILITY TO RETIRE IN GOOD SHAPE….. What is good shape? I would say with money in the bank, and years left on the calendar of their upcoming events. In other words, if it can be done, 45 -50 years old…… Iraq seems to be an issue, it isn’t THE issue, we are getting ready for the smack down in Iran…… Myself I am surprised it took so long, estimates made 38 years ago said Iran would have nuclear capabilities 15 years ago….. This has been a tough struggle for us here in the States to endure. And we are playing around with China on a disproportionate basis. The United States today is a mirror image of ancient Rome, only a little more technologically advanced (We can fly around now, and our chariots aren’t powered by hay, although that day may soon be coming). Much in the same way Rome threw sacks of gold over the cities walls to placate the Vandal hordes, so to is the United States doing the same……….. The poorest of the poor see it, and disadvantaged people see it, and our ‘Puppets’ elect that enjoy pontification so much are missing the real issues at large, and the dynamics involved………. All hail Caesar, All Hail Piyush, All Hail Hillary, All Hail Barrack……………………….. Written by ...And on and on and on and on and on it goes.....
on 5/1/2008
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It's the perfect storm for republican victories. Obama as the presidential candidate with his increasing negatives among white voters, even democrats, then the coattails of a surging McCain, along with independent black candidates. That could mean big Republican gains.
But I really don't expect Michael Jackson or others to go third party. They're just playing chicken with the democratic party. Written by ralphie
on 4/30/2008
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While I agree the State Democratic Party has not done enough to support African-American Democrats for office, it would be most ironic if these individuals would bolt the Democratic Party just as it nominates an African-American for President. It won't help Barack Obama govern if he is faced with more conservative Republicans in Congress. These Republicans would vote against the interests of the African-American community. Written by David Quidd
on 4/30/2008
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I just don't see the religious right being as disenchanted or as easily organized as the black democrats. This republican primary contest indicated that Huckabee's faction could only put up token, temporary opposition to McCain and the rest. But look at the death match between Clinton and Obama. Each of them represents one major coalition in the democratic party, and that tug-of-war is still not over. The same fate may eventually befall the Republican party, but it's not there yet. The Pat Robertson/Huckabee type third party candidate would not devastate the Republican party like an independent Obama (or another polished black candidate) would the democrats. And a large portion of the Republican right is willing to line up behind the Republican candidate for pragmatic reasons. That willingness to fall in line is shrinking every day with black democrats. They can handle the inevitable defeats that the defection would initially cause. They are used to being motivated by victimhood and that sentiment will only motivate them further to go independent. Written by ralphie
on 4/30/2008
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ralphie, you may be right about rifts within the Democratic Party (although I think I'd word it a lot differently than you did), but if you're in the GOP, you best imagine that there are rifts forming there, too. I don't know how much longer the religious right are going to allow themselves to be the doormat of the party - when it's election time, everyone panders to them, but in the end they rarely get what they want, and they are generally ignored by the Party Brass after the election's over. Several months ago, we all heard rumors about the contempt in which they are held by senior members of the Bush administration. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad the "Country Club" Republicans are keeping the "Talibaptists" at bay, but I wonder how much longer the religious right will take it? Maybe we're moving toward a multi-party system? Like the other commentator, I'm not sure that'd be a bad thing. A fellow can hope. TW Written by Tee Dub
on 4/30/2008
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The issue of this article is not Bobby Jindal. It is that the democratic coalition of blacks, union members, liberals and special interests is splintering. The abandonment of the party by power-hungry blacks is unstoppable. It is extending all the way up to the presidential race. Blacks will not abandon Hillary this time, but within a few more cycles, they will demand more and more power in the party. As this occurs, white democratic party bosses will resist, and many white democratic voters will resist. The result will be more independent runs by blacks, and a collapse of the democratic party's power in regions and races dependent on black voters. Both major parties are made up of coalitions of voters. But only in the democratic party is a major member of the coalition planning to pull out. When that happens, we'll have a virtual three party system, white democrats, blacks, and republicans. And the republican majority will dominate that reality in overwhelming numbers. Written by ralphie
on 4/30/2008
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I do believe a strong emergence of INDEPENDENT runners, and INDEPENDENT thinkers are of vital importance and necessity not only to Louisiana, but to the rest of the States that make up the Union as well.... That way a more realistic representation of the true majority is made possible. To elect someone based on marketing approaches that exponentially based upon a persons skin color or sex or ‘professed party affiliation’ thereby causing opinion rather than judgment and prudence to become advent is one of the faulty pillars that are now holding the beams of freedom, truth, liberty, and justice in place. There should be a law passed that ALL political campaigns, contributions, donated assets of value (including time spent by the media reporting on those varying candidates and the platforms they stand on) should be put in one chest, and then disbursed equally in incremental steps to all persons participating in the candidate processes as they evolve along the way…. Take Ralph Nader as an example, not advocating him, nor am I discounting him, he is merely being mentioned for discussion sake, however, aside from C-SPAN, and perhaps a brief mention on statistics once every couple of months, there is no exposure, and the voters may very well indeed want to know what his capabilities and potentials are, and he IS on the INDEPENDENT TICKET………………………….. I am sick and tired of seeing and hearing the OBAMA/CLINTON barrage every night, every day, seemingly every minute on every station and every newspaper…. And then there is the Piyush bovine scatology of V.P. potential being circulated…… A rock star? Not hardly….. But that fairy tale is being crammed down our throats, and the repercussions could be that we are going to have a governor that couldn’t even win a Mayor’s election in New Orleans… For one thing, a law should be passed, once elected, no running for another office while holding an office of authority. Schwarzenegger gave up movies while he was Gov of California, isn’t it possible that Piyush could give up his campaigning long enough to do the job in office he originally campaigned for and was appointed to? That Bobby Jindal, what an interesting little enigma……. Written by I agree with Tdub's observations on this one also
on 4/30/2008
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If Bill Jefferson had resigned from Congress when he ran for Governor, he might not be facing prison time right now. But I find it difficult to use "Bill Jefferson" and "honorable" in the same sentence. Written by gooses and ganders
on 4/30/2008
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Michael Jackson is just fulfilling the inevitable result of democratic party pandering to the black vote. The democrats have used blacks for years for the benefit of democratic party power. They have taken their votes for granted and voting breakdowns by race prove that it's worked for them. White democratic power brokers have conceded local and majority black district races to black candidates. But when the bigger races come up, history proves that the dem party supports whites and the blacks fall in line to put them in office. Well, now Jackson and others have gotten greedy. They want to control the party, not just provide the votes. So they are willing to sabotage democratic party elections in the short run to force the party power brokers to support them in the long run. Classic democratic thinking. It cannot be stopped, the party created the monster, and now they can't control it. This phase in the evolution of the democratic party will serve to further it's extremism, and ultimately it's decline. Written by ralphie
on 4/30/2008
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Michael Jackson is an A-One Turkey who's looking out for himself and his own political aspirations rather than his constituents' best interests. If Woody Jenkins wins, then we all lose - not just in the Sixth District, but throughout the state. Of course, none of this would be happening now if Jindal had done the honorable thing and left his congressional seat to run for governor, but then, since when does Jindal EVER do the honorable thing? TW Written by Tee Dub
on 4/30/2008
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The state Democratic Party's hopes this fall of winning two congressional seats long held by Republicans could be dashed by a potential crippling revolt within its base.
