By Christopher Tidmore, ctidmore@louisianaweekly.com

    "All things being equal, Cajuns vote for Cajuns," John Treen once observed about the nature of Louisiana state elections.

    In every statewide race where a candidate faced someone "who was either Cajun or represented Acadiana in Congress", he or she lost, regardless of which political party in which he or she was registered..

     The only two historic exceptions to that rule, the one-time political strategist and brother of Gov. Dave Treen noted, were the first Roemer/Edwards Gubernatorial race, where extenuating factors of court cases and corruption sealed the incumbent's fate and the 2004 Senate race where Democratic divisions did essentially the same thing.

      U.S. Senator David Vitter likely hopes that extenuating circumstances will also protect his incumbency against his newest Cajun challenger, Congressman Charlie Melancon, though they are less likely than in the past.

     The Napoleonville "Blue Dog" Democrat reversed course this last week and reportedly has begun preparations for a senatorial bid in 2010. As recently as early May, Melancon explained to a meeting of the Editorial Board of The Louisiana Weekly that he was happy in the U.S. House of Representatives and had no plans to leave, despite repeated urgings to the contrary.

     Melancon has ascended in seniority at a remarkable rate, earning key committee assignments in the sophomore term and standing as one of the leaders of the centrist "Blue Dog" caucus--which had been critical of both parties on spending.

     In the course of six weeks, three factors changed his mind.

     In the discussions with this newspaper's editors, Melancon had previously expressed confidence that the contours of his district, a Congressional seat that represents Coastal Cajun Louisiana and the River Parishes, would remain whole in some fashion. He acknowledged that population loss would mean that the state would lose a congressional seat after next year triennial census, but the Third District Congressman believed that with his seniority and committee assignments, the Jindal Administration and the legislature might think twice before rewriting a House district's borders that effectively represented sugarcane farmers, fisherman, and other coastal interests.

      In other words, a swing district a conservative Democrat like Melancon could win.

      They didn't.

      Attempting to know the machinations of congressional redistricters in Baton Rouge was once compared to a Roman augur attempting to read entrails--and about as accurate. However, one indication has become crystal clear in recent weeks. The Jindal Administration had looked likely to insist that Melancon's Napoleonville home was drawn into the Sixth Congressional District, and the African-American neighborhoods that made that Baton Rouge area seat a swing district would be drawn out.

      Regardless of the final shape of the seat, aides to Jindal and leaders in the House like Jim Tucker have been privately focused on shaping Black precincts up and down down the river into a new African-American majority seat that would pass Justice Department muster as a minority seat required under the Voting Rights Act. In 2012, therefore, Melancon would end up drawn into a lily-white refashioned Baton Rouge seat, lacking enough of his core Cajun constituencies and African-American voters to beat the then-three term incumbent already present in that office--GOP Congressman Bill Cassidy.

       Second, in the short term, running for re-election in the current Third District in 2010 meant facing tougher Republican opponents that the scandal plagued David Vitter. State Rep. Nicky Monica, a former Parish President, had been flirting with a run for weeks, as has Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser. Both would be well-funded challengers enjoying unified Republican support--something Melancon has not had to face in his three previous Congressional races.

       In 2004, Melancon won in large part because of antipathy between Billy Tauzin III, the previous incumbent's son, and his state Senator Craig Romero. Romero, a former New Iberia Parish President, deeply resented Tauzin III's frontrunner status and early endorsement by the State Republican Party, believing himself more worthy based on his years of service.

       Melancon, who barely beat Romero into the runoff, courted his voters, firing at Tauzin III's family ties and "Crown Prince" status. Romero likewise sent signals to his voters that he was staying home, and so should they. Melancon won by 569 votes.

       Two years later, the Tauzin political establishment returned the favor to Romero, actively resisting Romero's campaign. In 2008, the State Republican Party could not find a challenger to field against Melancon, leaving the Third District Congressman free to travel the country raising money for his fellow "Blue Dog" candidates.

       In 2010, things had begun to look less clear, and then, they got worse. On top of Monica and Nungesser, General Hunt Downer began to seriously consider a Congressional race.

       The former State Rep. and Louisiana House Speaker is something of an institution in the Terrebonne area, the core of the Third District. He remains extremely popular with not only Republicans, but the very Cajun swing voters upon which Melancon had always depended. Downer had passed on the 2004 race reluctantly, out of deference to Cong. Billy Tauzin, one of his political mentors.

       With a serving National Guard General, a popular and well-respected reform legislator, and an already wealthy Parish President as his possible opponents, 2010 looked to be Melancon's toughest race, for a seat that would not exist two years later.

       It was a point that Chuck Schumer, head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee began to hammer at Melancon, as he wooed him into the race. Most national Democrats wanted Melancon to run against Vitter in the wake of the prostitute scandals, but Schumer had been on a full campaign for over a year to change Melancon's mind.

       Reportedly, Schumer has promised extensive national support, and it is not an empty pledge. The New York Democratic Senator, himself a liberal in ideology, is more than anyone else the architect of the Democrats return to power. His strategy, at least on a Senatorial level, has been simple. Recruit moderates in states where more centrists positions are needed to win.

       Initially, Schumer took heavy criticism from his fellow progressives when he recruited the pro-life Attorney General of Pennsylvania, Bob Casey, Jr. to run for the Senate, as being too socially conservative for the caucus--concerns that evaporated with Casey's 12 point victory. Schumer repeated the formula across the country, most recently in his home state of New York where he supported Buffalo Congresswoman Kristen Gillibrand to succeed Hillary Clinton.  Gillibrand, with a 100% NRA rating did not go over well with many of Schumer's gun control allies, but her presence kept Rudy Guliani focused on running for Governor instead.

     Schumer repeated his promises of money and infrastructure support to Melancon, and in the wake of the redistricting news, for the first time, the Third District Congressman grew receptive, sending out press releases that he and his wife Peachy were considering a Senatorial bid.

     Then the news got better for the Napoleonville Democrat, and worse for Vitter. As details of the affair between South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford, one of the GOP's brightest lights, and a mistress in Argentina grew, comparisons with Vitter's trysts with prostitutes returned to the airwaves. The public was reminded of names like Wendy Cortez (Ellis) and Deborah Palfrey.

      Vitter's internal polling with Republican primary voters remains strong, over seventy percent, but only half of the general electorate strong approves of the job the incumbent U.S. Senator is doing, on the surface a strange result in an increasingly GOP state that went for McCain by twenty points.

      Schumer courted Melancon with the truism that John Treen and others have often noted. With Melancon's strong base in Acadiana, he could draw swing votes from Cajuns that might otherwise vote for Vitter. Match that with Democratic leaning New Orleans and the skepticism that still remains in North Louisiana about casting a ballot for a candidate from Metairie (despite Vitter's tireless attempts to reverse those attitudes in countless campaign sweeps), and Melancon may have a better chance than running for his own seat.

      Moreover, Vitter won his 2004 race after bitter divisions in the Democratic ranks minimized liberal turnout while Vitter as the only Republican candidate benefited from George W. Bush's coattails. And, his just over 51% victory came in large part because of motivated voters in his First Congressional district who turned out, not only for the Presidential race, but to put Bobby Jindal in (his brief sojurn in) Congress.

      And, likely the arguments were bolstered by the obvious fact that Mary Landrieu's 2008 re-election showed that electing a Democrat to the U.S. Senate remainded possible in increasing Republican-leaning Louisiana.

       Melancon, though, has a difficult task before him, regardless of Vitter's weaknesses. The incumbent Senator has amassed a multimillion dollar warchest that even Schumer's help and Melancon's popularity with powerful Louisiana constituencies like sugarcane farmers can do little to match. Next year's election, as a midterm, will likely be a referendum on Democrats in Congress, whose approval ratings have fallen to almost a tie with the GOP. Vitter can frame himself as a check on excessive spending and brand Melancon to the contrary thanks to his vote for the Obama stimulus plan.

      Still, Vitter cannot do what others like Woody Jenkins and Suzie Terrell attempted with Mary Landrieu, brand Melancon as socially out of sink with Louisiana voters. The Napoleonville Democrat is ardently pro-life and opposes same sex marriage.

      And, all things being equal, Cajuns DO vote for Cajuns.

Christopher Tidmore hosts The Political Roundtable on KKAY 1590 AM Donaldsonville/Baton Rouge from 4-5 PM weekdays or on the web at www.kkay1590.com. 

His past columns for this year can be found at 
http://host1.bondware.com/~Louisiana_Weekly/news.php?NewsSectionId=56

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