Thirty-three votes separated Woody Jenkins from a primary victory and what promises to be a potentially hard fought Republican runoff in the Sixth Congressional District.
Lobbyist Laurinda L. Calongne sent shock waves across the local political world by narrowly besting former Baker Chief of Staff Paul Sawyer for a runoff slot.Having run a low key campaign, she benefited from an intraparty war between former Baker Chief of Staff Paul Sawyer and Jenkins over the purchase of a mailing list during Jenkins’ 1996 US Senate race.
Sawyer contended that Jenkins knew that the list came from former KKK leader David Duke.Jenkins has maintained that he had no knowledge until 1998 that Duke profited from the purchase.Regardless of the reality, polling data seems to suggest that they ricocheted on Sawyer, drawing attacks from party chairman Roger Villere and causing him to drop in the polls by election-day behind Calongne.
By all appearances, though, the charges also affected Jenkins, who was polling in the mid 50s prior to the controversy two weeks ago.
Calongne concentrated on a direct mail campaign with some advertisements that positioned her as the outsider in what was perceived rightly or wrongly as a battle between the moderate and conservative factions of the Baton Rouge Republican Party.
Despite Jenkins’ near victory, his campaign had some of the same weaknesses that he endured in the US Senate race.The Baton Rouge native won his hometown by only 2,000 votes over New Orleanian Mary Landrieu in 1996, while the Democrat carried her home city by over 100,000 votes over Jenkins.Other Baton Rouge Republicans, such as Bobby Jindal four years ago, carried the CapitolCity by larger margins against strong Democratic challengers.
In the GOP only contest on Saturday, Jenkins clearly won East Baton Rouge Parish 10,045 votes to Calongne’s 5,028 and Sawyer’s 5,281, but the sum of his opponent’s vote exceeded the totals Jenkins won in the city he represented in the legislature for over 20 years. (As a contrast, State Rep.-turned-Senator Steve Scalise won Jefferson Parish by a factor of two to one.In fairness, both of Jenkins’ principal GOP opponents live in EBR; though, unlike Morris and Burns, Jenkins’ rivals had not run for office previously, nor had the local name recognition of Tim Burns or Ben Morris.)
Only in Iberville and West Feliciana did the sum of Sawyer’s and Calongne’s vote exceed Jenkins’ and only by a few dozen votes.Elsewhere, the former State Rep. and U.S. Senate candidate dominated, which seems to indicate that Jenkins will easy pick up the 33 votes that he needs.
In a general election, though, Jenkins’ weakness in his CapitolCity base could prove his weakness against a moderate enough Democrat.Unlike the 1st District, the Sixth District could easy swing to the opposition party.Retiring incumbent Congressman Richard Baker nearly lost the seat to Democrat Marjorie McKeithen, winning by only 1500 votes.Baker said there were only two ways to run for the seat, “unopposed or running scared”.
Jenkins has the added challenge that he has long faced opposition within the Baton Rouge business and political communities.His more populist and socially conservative politics did not often gel with the Baton Rouge Republican leadership.In 1996, most of the local leadership backed Republican State Rep. Chuck McMains and in the Elections Commissioner race Suzie Terrell.
However, the favored moderate white Democrat from Baton Rouge, former LRA Chief and Blanco Chief of Staff Andy Kopplin did not make his runoff, and State Rep. "Don" Cazayoux of New Roads results in the Capitol city were weak despite his first place, 35% finish.
In the 314 precincts of East Baton Rouge, Cazayoux lost to second place rival, African-American Democratic State Rep. Michael Jackson, 8,018 to 9,833, with Kopplin winning 6,309 votes, newcomer Jason DeCuir earning 7,086, and last place finisher Joe Delatte at 584.
Conversely, Cazayoux led in rural parishes like Livingston by a factor of three over the next closest candidate, Kopplin.In Point Coupee, the margin was even more
stark.Cazayoux led 1,640 votes to DeCuir’s 54.Kopplin ranked third at a mere 47 votes.In the ex-burbs of Ascension, Cazayoux’s 725 votes far out shown Kopplin’s 230, DeCuir’s 143, or Jackson’s 129.
Still, the majority of registered Democratic voters in the Sixth Congressional District are Black, and Jackson earned 27% support to Cazayoux’s 35%.There is sufficient room in a runoff for the Black candidate to win the party nomination, due to demography and geography.Jackson is from East Baton Rouge Parish, a region that has already elected an African-American Mayor named Kip Holden.
As one BR based political consultant put it to Bayoubuzz.com confidentially, “If Cazayoux were from Baton Rouge, I would say that it is a done deal.He would win [the primary].But he‘s from New Roads…Cazayoux can’t pull Black support [in EBR]; he isn’t from Baton Rouge.On the other hand, Jackson could pull some liberal white support.”Caucasian Democrats in the Capitol had little problem backing Holden and could do so again.
On the surface, a Jackson-Jenkins runoff clearly favors Jenkins.Internal polling shows that Independents break for Jenkins in such a matchup, provided no third party candidate changes the dynamics, as former John Georges Advisor Ashley Casey has hoped to do, running as an Independent in May’s General Election.
Thanks for reminding us about Mary's 100,000 vote margin in New Orleans. I love reminiscing about the bad old days. But I hope she's allocating at least the same amount of her campaign budget for vote-buying next time. There are a lot less votes to buy, but the price per vote has probably gone up substantially. Written by
on 3/10/2008
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