Unexpectedly, the First Congressional race could come down to the voters in Orleans Parish, and one time New Orleans Representative Steve Scalise is finding himself outflanked in parts of Uptown by Mandeville State Rep. Tim Burns.
As the Sunday Times-Picayune noted, Steve Scalise made the tactical decision two months ago to center most of his campaign efforts in Tangipahoa, opening a campaign headquarters in Hammond and spending considerable time in that parish.Neither of his St. Tammany-based rivals could boast of much of an organization in the other Northshore parish, and the Tangipahoa view that all the candidates were “foreigners”, as one commentator put it, allowed Scalise to compete on a proverbial level playing field with his Northshore rivals in an area in which the Senator was previously unknown.
In the GOP primary, the strategy seemed to work.Scalise carried four of the five parishes in the First Congressional District, including Tangipahoa, garnering more than 48% of the vote, and only losing St. Tammany.It seemed that the State Senator’s decision to place his Northshore headquarters in Hammond and focus his efforts there had paid off, and would in the Republican runoff.
Scalise’s apparent strategy has been to secure his Jefferson Parish base and carry Tangipahoa once more.A strong showing in his home parish matched with solid returns in Tangipahoa, his advisors reasoned, would overwhelm the numerical advantage in GOP registration in St. Tammany, that generally favored Burns in any case.
The State Senator’s staffers have taken it as a given that all of the other parishes would fall in Scalise’s favor, as they did in the GOP primary.
At first glance, it appeared as if State Representative Tim Burns predicated his run on the same theory; motivate St. Tammany voters to elect one of their own to Congress after decades of dominance by Southshore politicians.The numerical supremacy of Republicans on the Northshore, almost 60% of primary electorate, would outweigh Scalise’s strong support elsewhere.
In other words, in a low turnout election--and the Secretary of State’s office warns that next Saturday could rank as low as eighteen or nineteen percent of voters going to the polls—Burns’ strategy has appeared to be predicated on a St. Tammany Republican electorate unified behind their native son outnumbering the less numerous and less motivated Southshore GOP voters, many of whom a week out remain unaware that an election is even occurring on April 5th.
A wise, local commentator compared St. Tammany Republicans “to the Black vote when one of their own is in an election…They turn out in droves.” The enthusiasm of St. Tammany Republicans is so similar in their chance to elect a native son that it might prove a serious threat to overcome Scalise’s strength elsewhere.
The theory seemed to gain even more merit on Friday as Tim Burns one the critical endorsement of Slidell Mayor Ben Morris, the primary rival whom Scalise had actively courted.Despite the fact that the State Senator had earned the endorsements of most of the Slidell City Council, polling data revealed little bounce in Western St. Tammany for Scalise.
In a sense, Morris’ backing of Burns seemed in part a confirmation of the existing trend in St. Tammany, a growing, unified front for the native son, and a confirmation that the State Rep.’s geographic appeal posses a threat to Scalise’s chances for an easy victory on Saturday.
Still, for Burns to win under this scenario, he must see St. Tammany Republicans favoring his candidacy by better than sixty percent--and Scalise’s support from Southshore Republicans kept below sixty percent.
No polls put the Mandeville State Representative with that sixty percent support in St. Tammany, much less anywhere else.However, Burns does not need overwhelming turnout on the Northshore if he can pick a crucial constituency on the Southshore--the often overlooked Republican voters in Orleans Parish.And, that is precisely the group he has been courting in recent weeks.
According to sources within the Scalise campaign, the State Senator turned down two free, donated headquarters locations.One rested in central St. Tammany, between Mandeville and Covington, but Scalise believed that putting his people in Tangipahoa was more effective.
The other was in Uptown New Orleans.
The First District covers a considerable cross section of Orleans Parish.It includes Lakeview, parts of Mid-City, and most of Uptown & Carrolton.The latter area, at the very least, should be one of strength for Steve Scalise.
Most Jeffersonians do not realize it, but Scalise’s former State Representative District 82 enters Uptown just past Oak Street and wraps around the Riverbend area all the way to Lowerline, covering a large portion of Uptown.While Scalise is thought of as a Jefferson Parish politician, he represented four precincts of Orleans for over 12 years, only losing those constituents when he sought election to the District 9 Senate seat in October.
It is an area in which Scalise ought to be far stronger than a Northshore rival, yet the untold story of this 1st Congressional Contest is how Tim Burns has worked tirelessly to court these New Orleans voters.In a tight race, their few thousand votes could make all the difference, despite Scalise’s growing strength in areas like Tangipahoa.
Interestingly, both Scalise and Burns grew up in New Orleans, but it has been Burns who has repeatedly emphasized his Orleans Parish roots in this race.Burns has greeted groups like the Women’s Republican Club of New Orleans with stories of attending De La Salle and Tulane, opening his law practice in New Orleans, and fighting for Uptown issues early in his career.
Also unusual for a professed Northshore candidate, Burns has spent considerable time meeting with levee protection groups and speaking to Lakeview-specific issues.
As a result, Burns can boast of a myriad of signs and public displays of support in New Orleans--more, according to some accounts, than Scalise.
Signs, of course, do not vote, and many candidates have gone to defeat despite a strong presence of their names on major thoroughfares.However, it is interesting that Burns chose to spend time in Orleans after Scalise rejected even opening a headquarters in the Uptown area.
(One Scalise supporter confessed to offering the location.That person asked to remain anonymous, but is still supporting the Senator on Saturday.)
If Scalise were to win Tangipahoa, Jefferson, and River Parishes, but lose or tie in Orleans, statistically the Senator’s geographic advantage would not best Burns’ overall numerical coalition.
Said another way, 57% support in Jefferson, St. Charles, and Tangipahoa is in numbers of GOP voters less than Burns’ winning 51% of the Republican electorate of St. Tammany and Orleans combined.With a strong showing in New Orleans, Burns could have less of a majority in his home parish and still beat Scalise.
Nevertheless, the Senator remains the favorite on Saturday.His own polls, as well as those of his rivals, show him leading across the district and in New Orleans, yet, no one, least of all Scalise expected the race to be as close as it has become.Should he lose narrowly, the lesson may boil down to the simple saying, “It never hurts to remind people where you grew up.”
For Scalise who has spent his political career identifying himself with the Jefferson electorate, it would be an unexpected rebuke from his original home turf.
Scalise is the only candidate in this race. Burns is not "polished" enough to be in Washington, DC and speaking (clearly) on issues that matter to us. He is in this for all the wrong reasons. I just hope all of you are doing your homework in deciding who the best candidate is. Do not make a mistake on this one - it is too important to all of Louisiana. Written by LeJebs
on 4/1/2008
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If Scalise does win April 5th will northshore Republicans support him in the general election or wait for the fall to give Burns or Morris another chance to win? Written by David Quidd
on 3/31/2008
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