Technically, the electorate in the decidedly liberal, minority-majority congressional district could do that this Saturday in the primary, but that’s not going to happen.

            With so many candidates of standing and machine backing running combined with that the election is a Democratic primary, Jefferson, who still has committed segment of the electorate solidly behind him no matter what the FBI finds in his freezer, is virtually assuring him of making the runoff and headlines in Washington, New York and other parts of the country whose assistance we need in securing additional federal money for flood protection projects.

            Under the circumstances, one would think it would take a miracle (or the diabolical equivalent) for Jefferson to win again. 

            But despite all of the controversy surrounding the most investigated political family since the Long era, if you’re Bill Jefferson, you should believe in miracles.  He’s already benefited from two of them.

            The first was the Louisiana legislature’s foolish vote to return federal elections to the closed primary system.

            Why was it a bad idea?  Briefly: it created three elections instead of two; it injected a level of partisanship in Louisiana congressional elections that had not existed previously (now candidates steer their primary message to being “good” Republicans or Democrats and not potentially “good” congressmen); it has created confusion as we continue to have an open primary in other elections; voter registrations are still weighted heavily to the Democratic Party though it is in no way reflective of the party’s actual vote strength; etc., etc., etc.

            For the GOP, which where some of the most adamant support for the switch came, the closed primary has already cost the party a congressional seat in Baton Rouge and may yet lead to the loss of the Shreveport seat as well before the year is out. 

            For the Democrats, it means that Bill Jefferson could continue to be an albatross around their neck as the closed primary system is virtually tailor-made for him.  Actually it was built for then-State Senator Cleo Fields, a strong advocate of the closed primary for his own reasons, but as Jefferson is a reasonable political facsimile to Fields, the potential benefits are the same.    

            Now had this been an open primary, Jefferson would probably have survived the first round of a divided field but would have found the runoff less promising.  Though he handily beat Karen Carter in the 2006 runoff, those were due to circumstances that would not necessarily been in play this time.

            First there have been additional revelations delving deeper into the scope of the Jefferson political network that might turned off previous backers.  Second, Carter ran  the worst Orleans Parish campaign since Paulette Irons exploded into a thousand pieces during her 2002 bid for mayor.  Third, Jefferson Parish Harry Lee, who ingeniously sabotaged Carter’s effort by convincing his loyal west bank constituents to stay home, is no longer with us.  Fourth, Bobby Jindal’s election as governor and the uproar over the legislative pay raise has lit a fire under the citizenry to stand up to politicians not acting in the public’s best interest.     

Republican voters would be the least likely to support Jefferson unless some of a more Machiavellian demeanor take joy in perpetuating the other party’s disgrace by keeping congressman’s smiling face on the Louisiana Democratic Party’s website.  But unfortunately for Republicans in New Orleans and the westbank of Jefferson Parish, they won’t have a chance to do anything about it until the general election, so basically a large segment of the anti-Jefferson vote has been filtered out.

The second miracle was Hurricane Gustav.  The Democratic primary was supposed to be in September but due to trail of destruction the storm blazed across Louisiana, that election was pushed back to the first Saturday in October with the runoff rescheduled for the presidential election.

The political consequences of the shift in dates cannot be overstated.  More voters turn out for presidential elections than any other contest in the four year cycle and with Barack Obama on the ballot, black voter turnout WILL set a record, which bodes well for Jefferson.  The embattled incumbent still enjoys support amongst members of the Congressional Black Caucus.

If Jefferson survives November, there is one last hurdle he must get past: Republican attorney Anh Cao.  Cao, a native of Viet Nam who unsuccessfully sought a seat in the legislature last October, has experienced the inadequacies of the state’s flood control system having been flooded out by Hurricanes Katrina and Gustav. 

Though very little attention has been given thus far to Cao, who became the GOP nominee without opposition, if Jefferson emerges as the Democratic nominee Cao might find himself a cause célèbre as the last chance to take Jefferson out before the Feds eventually do what voters of the 2^nd District wouldn’t.

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