There were plenty of dropped-jaws on the streets of New Orleans late Friday afternoon.    

In the last hour of the New Orleans elections qualifying period came the big surprise. 

The New Orleans elections already had that big “stunner” last Tuesday, pre-qualifying.   

Mitch Landrieu’s entered into the Mayor’s race to succeed Ray Nagin, who had beaten him in 2006.  Closing out the qualifying on Friday, however, was Eddie Sapir’s entry into the Councilman- At-Large election right after Arnie Fielkow decided late Thursday to run for re-election. 

There is an interesting side note to this contest.  Uptown is certainly represented well with candidates. 

Both Sapir and Fielkow live uptown within walking distance of one another.  Both are Jewish and will be looking to that metropolitan base for money, support and votes. 

There are other candidates in that race who also certainly can attract from the uptown area. 

Republican, "Lance" W. von Uhde III, hails from that area on Vendome Street.   

Darren Mire, the assessor lives on St. Charles Avenue, five blocks West of Jackson Square going from Canal Street. 

Gregory “Chef” Sonnier also lives blocks away from Sapir and Fielkow.  

Voters get to pick two councilpersons-at-large. 

If one divides the race into the traditional black and white communities, Cynthia Willard-Lewis, who is vacating her District “E “ seat due to term limits and who  has representing East New Orleans will be fighting against assessor Darren Mire and the young Nolan Marshall.  

In the White community, the main competition comes from Sonnier, Sapir, Fielkow, Jackie Clarkson and perhaps von Uhde. 

Clarkson has some advantage since she is the only candidate from the West Bank.  She is also a well-known name in the political community. 

The key to the election will be each candidate grabbing his or her own base and pulling in “cross-over votes” from other neighborhoods and from the other respective race.  Without doubt, whites will attract black voters and African American voters will vote for whites.  However, as is the case in most communities in America, expect both (blacks and whites) to primarily support candidates within their own races.   

While Arnie Fielkow made his decision to run at the very last minute, he did so with some strength in the polls.  Of course, pre-qualifying polls are minimized once the real election begins, debates occur and candidates pull together their respective teams.  And, of course, it certainly does not help to have a candidate or candidates in the election that draw from the same demographic base. 

Then, Fielkow, has strong support from many who have viewed him as a reform candidate.  However, competitors such as Nolan Marshall, who was beaten by Cynthia Willard in 2006, is young, has big money support behind him and has credentials as a leader in the young community which makes up a sizeable voting block. 

Then, that is what makes New Orleans as predictable as the flow of its streets.  There’s always a pothole or a missing sign that makes driving so miserable, yet a real challenge. 

Focus on Lt. Governor’s Race

With Mitch Landrieu’s entrance into the New Orleans Mayor’s race, one of the big items of discussion has been the Lt. Governor’s race.  Since Landrieu is currently the favorite to be in the primary and since he is not fighting an incumbent, some politicos believe his chances of prevailing in the general election are better than they were four years ago.

As a result, a few people have already told me that should Mitch win the mayor’s race, they would be running for the Lt. Governor seat.   

Governor Jindal could be the main player should Landrieu pull off a New Orleans victory.  He would appoint a replacement and then call a special election.  In recent years, the only two Democrats who have won statewide have been Landrieu and Attorney General, Buddy Caldwell.  Those who have indicated to me their interest in running are Republicans and conservatives.  They would not be able to run for a Landrieu-vacated seat unless the current Lt. Governor were to win in the Big Easy. 

Which could make for an interesting turn of events. 

Four years ago, one of the major factors helping Ray Nagin were conservatives

and Republicans not wanting Mitch Landrieu to be elected.   However, for those conservatives and republican to help make the Lt. Governor seat available, that same block might need to pull together and this time support Landrieu for Mayor.   

Obviously, voting by default is not a good enough reason to vote for any candidate.  Still, it will be interesting to see exactly how Jindal and local republican and conservative groups handle this Landrieu-Lt. Governor—New Orleans Mayor decision.  Certainly, Landrieu is not going to win because voters or politicians want him out of the Lt. Governor’s position.  But, if the race is close as it was last year, we would have to factor in this particular gambit by a percentage point here or there. 

Stranger things have occurred in New Orleans and Louisiana elections.  The Mayor’s election vote carrot might be longer than for some who don’t want Mitch Landrieu sticking around as Lt. Governor in a seat that is not term-limited. 

We shall see.