Almost one week to go and we all will know.

Yes, only one more week until the New Orleans elections officially begin.

Next Friday afternoon, qualifying for those competitive political positions in New Orleans will end.    The qualification curtains will have been drawn and the campaigns will begin to sketch strategies given the new political terrain.

Obviously, the first tier focus is on the next New Orleans Mayor.

Right now, most people with whom I have discussed the upcoming campaigns are saying there will be a runoff between a white and a black candidate.     

Months ago, many of politicos were wondering if a white candidate would even emerge given that both Arnie Fielkow and Mitch Landrieu decided not to jump into the race that some are saying is much about “race”

So, if we must use “white and “black” to identify candidates, voters and the political probabilities, now, John Georges and Leslie Jacobs appear to be the leading “white” candidates by virtue of the fact that they can have the best chances to capture a wide swath of the voters and given that they have the biggest wallets or “purses” ( watching my political correctness).  Rob Couhig and Eddie Sapir (should the latter run) will get their share of votes since both are popular and have good name recognition.  Still, most politicos are putting Georges and Jacobs as the most likely candidates to win a runoff spot although much will depend upon the future debates and campaigning. 

On the black side of the ledger, the name that keeps popping up as the top vote getter is Edwin Murray.

Obviously, we will know if any other candidates get the big ‘MO at the last swing as did Ray Nagin eight years ago, but for now, it appears that the election will be between Murray, Georges and Jacobs.

The mayor’s race is being pitted by many in the community as the city’s “last hope”. 

In many respects for some, the current New Orleans state-of-affairs is like the Saints during the “bag” years.

While there is no doubt that the city has made a recovery given the incredible devastation of the community, the horrible political wrangling between the major power players, the horrid economy and the emerging political corruption stories, many citizens feel that we are one storm away from disaster and one bad mayor away from total emigration.

There are cries within certain parts of the community that “we must get it right, this time”.  Even some are looking for that political Big Ben Play for the city given the probabilities that neither the state nor the federal governments will be able to help much due to the lack of funds.  

“Our Last Chance” appeared to be the mantra as Forward New Orleans unveiled itself yesterday.  The new organization is a mega watch-dog group composed of 30 major organizations, mainly business groups but also community organizations, who have bandied together to score the candidates on their answers and to watch over their offices once the winners get sworn into City Hall.

In all of my years in campaign watching, this is potentially the most powerful and broadest coalition group that I have seen that will not be endorsing candidates but scoring and watching them.

One of the leaders of the organization told me that a candidate must take note of the mere gravity of the coalition and if those now candidates go astray once they take office, those elected officials would have to answer to a much larger audience speaking with one voice.

On paper, it makes sense.

However, there are some who are not persuaded by the new-found force of Forward New Orleans.  Already, I have heard comments such as “Do you really think the average Joe is going to care what this groups think” to “all we need is another do-good organization telling us what to do”.  One friend even felt the group’s existence was illegal since it according to that person,  Forward New Orleans is essentially a number of not-for-profits engaging in politics.  Then, that has never stopped other groups from getting on the political soap box, so what gives?

Then, last night, another new group met for the first time to help push a candidate.  This one is called “Women For Georges”.  Approximately one hundred women filled a Julia Street art studio as the candidate and his wife were able to meet and greet the ladies.    Dathel Georges is heading up this group which was the brain-child of her husband and which purpose is to energize the “weaker sex” to be involved in politics and especially in the Georges campaign.

The group is appropriate since another woman, Leslie Jacobs appears to be his strongest competition.   While Jacobs might not have the grass roots organization set up yet as does Georges who is establishing offices in many sections across the City, there is little doubt that there will be a money slugfest between two candidates who have been achievers in the business communities and within the public sectors

Whatever the momentum that is generated by groups such as “Forward New Orleans” or “Women For Georges” depends upon the distractions such as Christmas, New Year, the BCS bowl, the possible Saints Super Bowl run, and of course, Mardi Gras. 

Still, with so many people saying that the election really matters for the future of New Orleans, there is a possibility that politics will have difficulty penetrating through the rollicking.  Given the alternative temptations, many voters might ask “Who’s Dat”, when they sluggishly find their ways to the voting booth.   The goals of some of the existing and emerging organizations will help be a little reminder that there is a reason to pull the switch.  After all, hail Mary, this might be our last chance!

US Senate Race

Some might think that US Senator David Vitter has taken some interesting and maybe inconsistent stances lately.  While condemning the health care, the stimulus and the TARP legislation as excessive government spending, he criticized President Obama for not immediately moving into Afghanistan with troops after Obama received the report from the top military officer.  Some who wanted the President to consider the political and/or financial implications have either been opposed to sending troops to Afghanistan altogether or have been concerned about the financial costs of the endeavor versus the outcomes.  This week, after three month consultations, Obama revealed his Afghanistan policy which has concerned various groups and elected officials regarding the financial costs.   

Then, today, Senator Vitter was one of only a very few Republican votes who supported legislation within the health care bill saying "yes" vote for a Democratic amendment that would provide free mammograms as a "preventive" services coverable by health insurance plans.

The Mikulski Amendment passed by a 61-to-39 vote.  According to Politico, pro-life groups have been against the Amendment for they see it as putting abortion rights in existing health insurance plans.  The national right to life committee had considered the Amendment “Condition Red”.

Vitter has been heavily criticized recently by the Democrats for being insensitive to women because of a variety of votes including a film that surfaced about his encounter with a rape victim in Baton Rouge.  According to Politico, Sen. David Vitter (R-La.) -- perhaps conscious of his potential weakness among women voters ahead of next year's midterms -- cast a surprising "yes" vote.to the Mikulski Amendment.   Then, with election season approaching, we might see a number of surprising votes from numerous candidates.

Today, Vitter sent out an email asking for campaign funds.  Currently, reports indicate that he has approximately 4 million dollars in the bank.  Also, Charlie Melancon sent out an email stating that he was launching a new web site at CharlieMelancon.com.

Becomes Friends With Publisher Stephen Sabludowsky and make friends with a great list of Facebook friends.