One year from today, Louisiana will be voting for the next US Senator.  At this point, the main candidates are Republican David Vitter and Democrat Charlie Melancon.  Currently, according to most polls, Vitter enjoys a low double digit lead.  Most national publications assert that Vitter is the most vulnerable current US Senator.  Based upon most polls,  Congressman Melancon has relatively low name recognition and has the most to gain with voters.  The main question is whether the Democrat who is getting such a late start in the race can compete with Vitter who has substantially more money than his opponent.

Vitter has been able to capture certain issues that appeal to the conservative voters in Louisiana.  He has also been able to obtain tremendous amount of free media exposure including that of the national media.  Some of that exposure is negative, but, he has tapped into the emotions of many voters within Louisiana and from outside the state.  Since Louisiana is a very conservative state, it is only natural that Senator Vitter will be able to continue to tap appeal to the emotions of many of those voters.  So far, Melancon has not made any headway into the national marketplace of ideas.  He is not obtaining the local or the national media attention as is Senator Vitter.  For instance, Senator Vitter’s recent crusade which is his amendment to prevent the census from counting illegal aliens in this next census is attracting the pens of many writers from publicans across the nation.  The fact that both Vitter and Melancon (especially Senator Vitter) are advertising in web publications across the nation is an indication that both are trying to obtain the support (and certainly the financial backing) of those web readers even if they are living in Tim-“Bucks”Tu.

What matters the most are not the current polls, but the turnout on election day.  With President Obama on the ballot last year, a number of voters went to vote--both in support and in opposition to Obama.  Also, at that time, there was a US Senate race, between Mary Landrieu and Treasurer, John Kennedy.

November 2, 2010 will also be the Congressional elections day.   Based upon prior voting and Congressional seats, it appears that the main seats that might be in play will be the 2nd   and the 3rd, the 4th and the 6th  Congressional Districts.  Democrats have done well in the 3rd although that seat would be more contentious since Melancon would be running for US Senate.  Republican Joseph Cao might have a difficult time against a Democrat in a highly-Democrat populated 2nd Congressional District without the political distractions of a frail William Jefferson on the ticket.    It is uncertain how well a Democrat can do again in the 6th Congressional District against Bill Cassidy who beat a Democratic Congressman for that seat in 2008.  Also, Congressman Fleming in the 4th might see a strong challenger.  Fleming is new to Congress and has not built up an institution as of yet, but as a medical doctor, he is an attractive Congressman who can appeal to those individuals who are opposed to Obama’s and the Democrat’s medical care packages. 

Governor Jindal has proven that he lacks the necessary coattails so he might be of limited assistance during election season.  The main person on the ballot will actually not be officially running—Barack Obama.  Unless the economy dramatically turns around and the health care debate is out of the way, the swing vote will likely go Republican as it appears to be going in many races in the US.  Right now, if Governor Jindal is of little assistance to candidates, Obama would certainly be of less help.  Indeed, a lot can occur in a year, but, for now, Obama is the Republican party’s running mate here in Louisiana since his current Louisiana poll numbers reflect likely voters’ dissatisfaction with his presidency and his policies. 

   Senator Vitter And the Rape Issue 

The democrats have been confronting Senator Vitter and other republicans who voted against an amendment by Senator Al Franken involving rape and contractors to the military.  That issue hit home at a David Vitter appearance and today has been making its way on the Internet via a very emotional Youtube video. 

iThe story began with Dawn Leamon, an employee of military contractor KBR who was working for that contractor in Iraq when she was said to have been raped by fellow employees.  Her contract with KBR compelled her to take her case against the company to arbitration, not the courts.  In 2005, Jamie Leigh Jones of KBR also claimed rape.  When Leamon attempted to go public, her contract also forced her to go through arbitration.  Democrat Franken of Minnesota filed an amendment to a defense appropriations bill that would stop the federal government from contracting with companies such as KBR who block access to the courts.  Opponents of the Amendment claim it was a political ploy. 

The Defense Department and the Obama Administration agreed with the Republicans on the Amendment claiming they would not know if the contractors had that provision in the contracts.  However, Defense and the White House would approve outlawing employment contracts that would prohibit such arbitration provisions.  The Senate 68-30 in favor of the Franken Amendment, with all 30 votes coming from Republicans including Senator Vitter.  

This weekend, Senator Vitter was confronted by a women who said she was a rape victim.  She described her situation and Senator Vitter respectfully attempted to answer her comments.   He also said asked the women if she was aware that Obama and the military were against the amendment.  Emotions began to rise and Senator Vitter perhaps made a mistake for which he has been criticized.  He walked away from issue in this case a possible rape victim which then spawned the woman screaming at the US Senator as he started to go out of the door. 

Vitter was correct in his statement concerning Obama’s and the military’s vote but if the Amendment was drafted differently, their respective objections to the amendment might not exist.  Then, we are not sure how the Republicans and Senator Vitter would vote if the amendment were to make the arbitration contracts unlawful   

For various reasons including the “Madam issues”, some pundits feel that Senator Vitter is currently not doing as well with women as with men although the SMOR poll’s results where he led by low double digits were based upon 54 percent of those respondents being women.

Below is a video of the encounter with David Vitter which initially appeared on the Huffington Post in a story written by a Washington correspondent, Sam Stein .  This video is on Youtube.  It shows a patient but then a seemingly perturbed Senator who left the complaining woman during the discussion as it started to become emotional.  Vitter, before he left the woman asked if he thought President Obama would be in favor or rape.  The woman said she was not asking President Obama but was asking SenatorVvitter. At this time, during this election year, it is fair to say it is uncertain if the woman on the video is truly a rape victim.  More information is needed to ascertain her identity.  Still, the video does represent a number of important issues.  As Senator Vitter knows and does execute in his campaign, so well, Internet videos are viral and emotional.   Also, sometimes taking a question at a political outing can backfire.  President Obama found this out at his New Orleans event when one questioner asked Obama an explosive about FEMA under his administration.  Also, women’s issues for many reasons could be a volatile topic as this campaign continues.   Vitter will likely get the Louisiana "angry" and perhaps "not so angry" "white men" vote.  Whether he will continue to resonate with many women remains to be seen as we start the one-year countdown until elections.  Based upon the tenure of news releases from the Democrats, it appears they hope to have found a “soft spot” in his political underbelly. 

New Orleans Mayor’s Election

Right now, the “buzz” appears to be that John Georges appears the man to beat in the New Orleans mayor’s election.  Not only did he carry New Orleans in the last Governor’s election but he is building up an impressive team   He has hired James Hartman & Associates for his communication (which includes Helena Moreno) but Liz Reyes, formerly of ABC26 will be his spokesperson.  Probably most impressive is his fundraiser not to ignore his personal deep pocket.  According to Georges, a recent single fundraiser has exceeded five hundred thousand dollars and the full count for that fundraiser is not in.  According to Georges in an email reply to a Bayoubuzz request, that fundraiser does not include any money from “myself” or “my companies”.   

This is important since it shows that Georges can piggy-back on his name recognition from the Governor’s race and can raise money from the outside during a very bad economy and despite the fact that he has his own personal wealth.  Georges will announce his candidacy on Wednesday.  Qualifying is approximately one month from today.

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