Over 70% of those individuals polls were over 50 years of age.
Lt. Governor Mitch Landrieu gets the best marks for any statewide elected official polled followed closely by Bobby Jindal.
Louisiana is a remarkably conservative state.We feel the stimulus is not working, and do not want health care reform or other controversial legislation proposed by the democrats.
Both Charlie Melancon and the Louisiana Republican Party have plenty of room to grow in the state.While David Vitter’s positives are almost 20 points better than Charlie Melancon’s, a whopping 41.5 percent of the voters do not know who Melancon is or will not give their opinion.
However, this number does not guarantee that Melancon will move up in the polls.The gap between Vitter and Melancon is still in low double digits.The state is keenly conservative (although officially more democratic than republican).President Obama’s legislation is a real “albatross” for Melancon.Obama’s positives are not necessarily so low for such as conservative and that did not vote for him, but his negatives are substantial.
While David Vitter has the low double-digit lead in a head to head combat, Melancon’s positives are not as high as Vitter, but his negatives are much lower.Then, Melancon is not well known.So the “framing” of Melancon at this time is critical. David Vitter is clearly attempting to pit Melancon as Obama’s “running mate”.Congressman Melancon meanwhile is attempting to define himself as a blue-dog democrat who can get things done in Louisiana.However, the Louisiana voters appear to be so opposed to much of Obama’s legislation, that any major voting blunder by Melancon in the future could spell “disaster” for the democratic Congressman.
The fact that those polled by SMOR are more democratic but respond to the poll more like Republicans (and would vote more republican) is a gold mine for the Louisiana GOP.
However, the fact that Mitch Landrieu is clearly the most popular statewide candidate shows that a Melancon-Landrieu could be a positive for Melancon but might also be a negative for Landrieu--depending upon what President Obama has done already and how he will preside in the future and how Melancon responds in the future.
There is one very telling number that could impact upon legislation passed and upon any future statewide election:While a substantial number of Louisiana voters do not favor the stimulus, they feel that Louisiana has not spent its dollars well, they prefer state fiscal responsibility, yet, they are very concerned about the impact upon cuts in education and medical care.
Obviously, with the upcoming budget deficit being approximately equal to the stimulus money being plugged to fill the gap, the Obama administration and the democrats are doing a poor job in relating the stimulus to the Louisiana budget, healthcare and education and selling the stimulus to the Louisiana citizens.
If there is one certainty about the SMOR poll, it is what Bernie Pinsonat said to me yesterday.The poll only shows what the likely voters polled now.It does not guarantee victory or results in the future.
However, it is a good barometer for now.Senator Vitter can use the poll and argue that his “ sin past” is behind him although we are not certain what will happen with any Louisiana State Bar ethics claim or with the possible Pickering to Barbour to Vitter fundraising scrutiny that has been filed by the Louisiana Democratic Party.Also, for an incumbent US Senator to have high negatives and to be below fifty percent is somewhat troublesome for the Republican Senator and does not guarantee victory in the fall of 2010.
Melancon can use the poll to show that he has great room for growth.However, his leg room is predicated that he is much more “blue dog” than “yellow dog” and the ghost of Barack Obama is not dogging him.
The Louisiana Republican Party can till the farm and attract many more members to their fold then those who are card-carrying “Reds”.This can only help future Republican candidates such as Vitter and Jindal and both can help the Republican Party.
Governor Jindal is left somewhat in somewhat of a quandary.His positives are back to where they were after the spring legislation session of 2008, the voters want cuts, they don’t want big government, but they are keenly concerned about the impact upon education and healthcare.
While Pinsonat is correct that the poll does not guarantee any vote right now, there is nothing remarkable about the poll compared to others.The most telling numbers are that Mitch Landrieu polls so well statewide, and that voters are very concerned about the impact upon education and medical care yet they want cuts.
So, where does this poll leave Melancon and Senator Vitter who are candidates for the most powerful seat in the state next year?Vitter can say that there is evidence that his past is behind him although we are not certain the impact of the two possible ongoing legal inquiries.Melancon can hug Mitch Landrieu but he must vote and talk more like Bobby Jindal than Nancy Pelosi.
Can Melancon pull off this stunning transformation?Yes, if you look at John Kennedy’s very high poll numbers.Kennedy is one of the leading advocates of budget cuts yet five years ago he ran as a liberal democrat.Which shows that in Louisiana, “anything goes”, but five years is much longer than one year.Melancon will have a more difficult time erasing Obama and Pelosi from the minds of the voters as they view the Congressman as a US Senate candidate.
Overll, the SMOR poll shows that if you steer to far to the left, you are likely to stray in the swamps.Yet, don’t expect Thibodeaux or Boudreaux to lend a helping hand as they direct their pirogues right past you.
The Bardwell Affair and the Louisiana Democrats
Yesterday, I received a phone call from the Louisiana Democratic Party. They said they had made a statement on the Bardwell -Justice of the Peace affair and asked me if I had received their email on Monday. I had written about the Bardwell affair on Monday and then again on Tuesday criticizing various individuals and entities for not speaking out against Justice of the Peace Bardwell. Their "Bardwell" statement was released on Monday afternoon, however, I had not received their email which they sent. (The frailities of email).
So, here is their statement that was released Monday:
Whittington Statement on Bardwell’s Refusal to Resign
Louisiana Dems exploring all legal options to have Bardwell removed, Chair says
(Baton Rouge) – Today, Louisiana Democratic Party Chair Chris Whittington released the following statement on Tangipahoa Justice of the Peace Keith Bardwell's refusal to resign after admitting that he denied a marriage license to a couple because they were of different races.
"There is no room in today’s Louisiana for Keith Bardwell. As a public official, Bardwell has sworn to uphold the laws of Louisiana and the Constitution of the United States and his actions likely violate both. He needs to go.
"It is unfortunate that Keith Bardwell has said he will not resign. The Louisiana Democratic Party is exploring all legal options to have Mr. Bardwell removed from office. We will not sit idly by while this injustice continues.”
Bayoubuzz Note: Bayoubuzz has not received any communication about this issue from either David Vitter, Charlie Melancon or the Louisiana Republican Party. It is my opinion that some issues transcend politics.
Louisiana is far from being a conservative state, rather it appears to be a state of selfish people who think they are conservators. Written by
on 10/22/2009
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LOL... "You three" need to bundle up those few straws you're grasping onto-- and light 'em, and toke 'em. Written by KJ
on 10/22/2009
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Good Job on reporting that vote KPF. Note that Mary Landrieu (D-LA) was not one of those who voted to stop this assault on the taxpayers. She voted with her party. So much for her being fiscally conservative. Now we know that the Health Care Bill starts at over 1 Trillion Dollars. There are years of taxes and fees before there is one dollar of so called benefits. This bill deserves the bright light of day but is being written behind "locked" doors by a small group of people who could care less about the real people and those who will not only have to live with it but will have to pay for it (at least our grandchildren will). This is looking less and less like the America I grew up in. Written by Sharon
on 10/22/2009
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That is good news kpf. But I may have even better news. I was wondering where the October report on September's unemployment rates by state was, since I could not find it on the Bureau of Labor Statistics web site. But it turns out that the Wall Street Journal has the statistics for unemployment rates by state up in an interactive map -- it's a Flash app -- on their website. To find it, Google [minus the quotes] "wsj.com signs of recovery don't extend to jobs" to get to the "parent" page. Then look to the left and you will see two interactive maps, the "Beige Book" and underneath it "State Unemployment Rates." Click on the "View Interactive Map" offering under the "State Unemployment Rates" map and the interactive map will load. If you then click on the checkbox for "Louisiana" in the "Select Up to 5 States ..." form you will see the trend for our state highlighted through September and compared against the national trend. And what does it say? Well, though the national unemployment rate increased from August to September from 9.7% to 9.8%, here in Louisiana we dropped from 7.8% to 7.4%. WOOOO HOOOO!!! This is in part the result of Jindal's policies and his decision to go against the national trend of trying to spend our state out of the recession. The rest of the country now faces rising unemployment while we have turned the corner -- the trend line for our state shows steadily rising unemployment here since January, so it's good to see it heading in the other direction. I also notice that several states with unemployment rates currently lower than ours have their trend lines continuing to escalate; such as (alphabetically) Montana, New Hamphsire, New Mexico, Virginia, Utah, and Wyoming. I think we should count ourselves very fortunate indeed. Written by Jacob Sulzbach, Lafayette, La.
on 10/21/2009
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GOOD NEWS!!! We have bi-partisanship in congress! 13 (THIRTEEN!!!) Democratic Senators joined Republicans in defeating attempts to spend $245,000,000,000 that does not exist (a.k.a. "deficit spending") today, defeating an initiative by the Democratic Party leadership. Senate leader Harry Reid said: ... ah ... who cares what he said. A fine day for America!!! Bipartisanship, Democrats and Republicans united to oppose foolish, ... no ... the "ignorant" deficit spending by the Obama administration. Glad to see we can all work together to defeat the forces of economic ignorance (they're like ... so "divisive" and "dangerous" and "ignorant"). Written by kpf
on 10/21/2009
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Sharon, thank you for pointing out what is in the Fordham University report on Rasmussen. I want to add one more comment that will demonstrate what I referred to in my last post about the "sample" Rasmussen uses. Here is the source. Google [minus the quotes] "realclearpolitics president obama job approval" and look at the list of presidential job approval polls up at RealClearPolitics.com. Pay attention to the column marked "Sample" to see what I mean. In their abbreviation scheme "A" = "All Respondents," "RV" = "Registered Voters who Responded," and "LV = "Likely Voters who Responded." Then compare the numbers on Obama's job approval. Among the 4 polls who list results from "All Respondents" Obama is up by an average of +14.75 percentage points (Approve - Disapprove). Among the two who list results from "Registered Voters who Responded" Obama is up by an average of +8 percentage points. And in the one, Rasmussen, who lists results from "Likely Voters who Responded" Obama is down by -6 percentage points. That is what defines the difference, the sample. It's not about the pollster, it's about the pollster's methodology. Written by Jacob Sulzbach, Lafayette, La.
on 10/21/2009
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David Quidd, read Nolaboy on the future of the economy. Written by Jacob Sulzbach, Lafayette, La.
on 10/21/2009
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Rasmussen called the 2008 election better than anyone else. His polls were consistently closest to the results. So it is difficult for me to believe that anyone who follows these things consider him conservative. KJ it remains to be seen if Melancon is "in Obama's way". He has not had to make a tough vote and Pelosi has allowed him and a few others to vote against her because their vote was not needed. 8 Republicans bailed him out on one vote. In the Senate it is a bit different. If a few Democrats vote against they lack the 60 votes needed for some tough legislation. Look today when there was a vote to take 250 Billion in funding for doctors out of the Health Care Legislation because if it is put in the bill would go over the 1 Trillion Dollar mark. 13 Democrats voted with a unanimous Republican vote against. Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) voted For the measure. My guess would be that Melancon would have joined her. Hardly voting against the Ultra left wing of the Democrat Party. Written by Sharon
on 10/21/2009
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It's going to be funny watching Melancon and other Democrats in Congress who want to get re-elected next year run as far away from Obama as they can get. Obama has done nothing to create jobs in the private sector. All he has done, and continues to do, is take more and more money out of the private sector which means fewer and fewer jobs. Written by Nolaboy
on 10/21/2009
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Obama's poll numbers are likely to improve along with the economy and once a health care reform bill is signed into law. Being the anti-Obama party is a longterm mistake for the GOP. Written by David Quidd
on 10/21/2009
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KJ, Rasmussen is an independent pollster. You probably think that because he is under attack from people like Keith Olbermann and that guy at CNN -- I forget his name, Sadler or Salter or something -- that this suggests his political views reflect his results. They do not. The liberal magazine/online news site Slate has commended Rasmussen for his accuracy. What is driving so much of the anger at Rasmussen is his insistence upon using numbers from samples that reflect the opinion of "Likely Voters" on topics. Democrats and Liberals do best whenever the sample is "All" regardless of whether they are even to registered to vote or not; if the sample is confined to "Registered Voters," without any consideration given to whether they actually vote, Democrats and Liberals will do slightly less well than they do with an "All" sample; and finally if the sample is restricted to "Likely Voters," which is the most restricted sample in scope, Democrats and Liberals do the poorest. This is the source of anger among Democrats and Liberals with Rasmussen. He will not play ball with the rest and disguise the real-world political impact of his poll results. He always reveals what the electoral impact of his poll results suggest when dealing with political topics. That is why Rasmussen is so hated among the left, not because of his political leanings, but because of his polling method of using numbers of Likely Voters. And again, Rasmussen's record of predicting political results at the ballot box is the most accurate of all the pollsters, and why not? He deals with what motivates voters 365 days a year, not just in the 2 to 3 weeks leading up to an election. It's the results that matter and Rasmussen has them. Written by Jacob Sulzbach, Lafayette, La.
on 10/21/2009
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"CNSNwhat.com"...........the Christian Network what?... the Conservative National?... Uh, no, Sharon-- I think I missed that headline. Written by KJ
on 10/21/2009
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Jacob-- Rasmussen is a Conservative Pollster. Quoting them is like quoting DailyKos, a Liberal Pollster-- Guess who their participants are? .............And, Sharon, I do not see Melancon siding with Obama-- Quite the contrary-- he's actually standing in Obama's way- and he's not supporting a Public Option. Written by KJ
on 10/21/2009
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So you think that Melancon will jump back into the race for his congressional seat? Wow again. That never crossed my mind but possibly. I know he has the total backing of the state and national democrat parties in this Senate race. IMHO Melancon is not suited for the Senate. I wonder why they did not run Landrieu. Wouldn't they be the first brother and sister to serve? That might have made an interesting story anyway.
I get your point on internet neutrality and if it were any other Administration, I might tend to go along but I do believe that there is more to this concept than is being presented. This group only allows us to see the tip of the iceberg. We never get a glimpse of what in under the surface. From the few conversations I have had from those I know, they are very suspicious because if we have found out in several ways. This Administration and this Congress does not believe in free enterprise and their idea of neutrality is not the same as ours.
You are much more informed on this matter so I will defer to your explanation and hope that if it does occur, your insight will prove correct. Written by Sharon
on 10/21/2009
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Sharon, if Melancon does not pull out of the race he will lose his congressional seat and finish his political career as an elected official with a most ignominious defeat. I cannot imagine that Melancon can do any better than 45.5% of the vote under the rosiest of scenarios. Now with respect to the internet issues, let me say as an internet applications developer that I definitely favor Net Neutrality. What we are seeing as a consequence of the misplaced arguments in favor of "Open Source" software for internet applications is that it was never so democratic as its promoters promised, nor as robust as needed. What is driving the push for open source internet applications is the advertising income that Google garners from web traffic, not the utility nor the capabilities of the software itself, which should be the real issue. The productivity of American business enterprise has been greatly enhanced by the information revolution, but that increase in efficiency came from the "diffusion" (spread) of software development within business enterprise, which brought new ideas custom-crafted to each individual business that adopted information management for its own use. These ideas are capital, which falls under the heading of "Intellectual Property," and if a non-neutral internet develops that chooses some applications over others, the collective value of the total investment that has been made into the development of this intellectual property over the past three decades will be significantly diminished and instead be concentrated in the hands of a few online application servers who will reap the benefits for themselves. That concentration will weaken competition and with it continuing investment in the development of custom-crafted solutions within individual business enterprise. I am all for Net Neutrality since it will help to assure the diffusion (that's the key concept) in continued investment in productivity. Written by Jacob Sulzbach, Lafayette, La.
on 10/21/2009
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Wow. Jacob, do you really think that Melancon will pull out of the race? I don't think he should have ever entered. I do know him well and have my reasons. This headline has turned up today.
CNSNews.com
Congressional Black Caucus, Blue Dogs Join Conservatives to Oppose Internet Regulations
KJ perhaps you know where Melancon stands on this attempt by the Congress and this Administration to take over the internet. Written by Sharon
on 10/21/2009
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KjunLady, with respect to Rasmussen, I encourage you not to believe what I present, but rather to go and read the results yourself. Google [everything within the parentheses including the quotes] ("Poll Accuracy in the 2008 Presidential Election" fordham) and read the Fordham University analysis which ranks the major pollsters. Rasmussen is first, Pew Research is second. It's there, just go and read it. Written by Jacob Sulzbach, Lafayette, La.
on 10/21/2009
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“initial attempt to raise David Vitter's negatives has not been nearly so successful…” Jacob, do you really think Vitter can keep his “twitch” under control for another 14 months?.... You also got my attention with this one,
“Rasmussen, once again the most accurate of the national pollsters,”….Haaa!... Jake the Jaded- “You funny guy- we shoot you last.” (L.B.)
Written by KjunLady
on 10/21/2009
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Steve, with respect to your comments on Melancon's "great room for growth" and that "the 'framing' of [him] at this time is critical" and that Melancon's "leg room is predicated [upon convincing Louisiana voters] that he is much more 'blue dog' than 'yellow dog' and the ghost of Barack Obama is not dogging him" seem to suggest that you believe he now has the option of now making a positive statement about himself to Louisiana voters so as to close the gap with Vitter and make the race competitive. He certainly can try, but the poll makes very clear that his initial attempt to raise David Vitter's negatives has not been nearly so successful as Vitter's attempt to prevent Melancon from gaining traction by associating him with Obama. Melancon has not even received the customary 40% support that is usually given to a Democratic Party candidate for state office. One could sum up the result of Vitter and Melancon's respective strategies to date with the statement that "while Melancon has made only minimal headway in making Vitter more unpopular, Vitter has had much more success in preventing Melancon from getting an attentive ear from Louisiana voters." This is made clear by two sets of numbers in the poll I posted last night: 1) Melancon's "Approval" rating from Louisiana voters ("Excellent" + "Good") is less than Vitter's "Disapproval" rating ("Not so good" + "Poor"), which is an awful statistic for Melancon since it says that the 16.6% undecided, the overwhelming majority of whom are non African-American voters, are obviously not listening to him; and 2) Melancon's "Approval" rating and his support in the 1-to-1 matchup with Vitter are identical at 35.8%, which throws the idea of "leg room for Melancon to grow" out the window, since he must first gain the approval of Louisiana voters before he can get their political support at the polls. I repeat the prediction I made last night; Melancon is going to withdraw from the race by March 1 of next year. And I am emboldened to make this forecast based upon what I see in Obama's recent poll numbers. Today CNN is running a story "Obama Loses Support on Issues" which you can view from the video link at the home page at RealClearPolitics.com and which reflects results from the USA Today/Gallup poll. Additionally Rasmussen, once again the most accurate of the national pollsters, has Obama's approval rating among likely voters at -6 as of today. These numbers set a wall in front of Melancon that he will not be able to overcome with undecided non African-American voters in Louisiana who already are not listening to him and who are not likely to become more attentive as Obama's popularity continues falling.
Written by Jacob Sulzbach, Lafayette, La.
on 10/21/2009
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Isn't it amazing that Gov. Jindal is benefiting from the stimulus and pretends that it does not exist? Just think where he would be if the stimulus money was not feeding the budget. If so many people are very concerned about the budget cuts, wait until his re-election year when there is no recovery money and no stimulus money. Then, should Louisiana get hit with a horrible storm similar to what happend to Governor Blanco, don't expect the federal government to bail him out at all, no matter who is President or who control Congress. He is just one lucky sucker. BTW, the Vitter numbers look OK although he is not at 50 percent. He might be re-elected but we love to be the laughing stock of the nation. It must be in our water and in our blood and in our food. Louisiana is the racist capital of the world and the sexual deviant capital of the world. That is great for economic development. Written by Alice Does Not Live Here Anymore
on 10/21/2009
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What does 
