New Moon Over New Orleans 

Powered by a strong absentee vote and a backlash against the Nagin Administration that transcends race, Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu will win the office that unsuccessfully pursued in 1994 and 2006.   

Business consultant Troy Henry, as the consensus black candidate, will run second followed by John Georges, whose inroads with the black community could not compensate the loss of white support stemming from his harsh comments about popular US Attorney Jim Letten.  Rob Couhig, the lone Republican in the race, will finish fourth, fair housing activist James Perry fifth and former judge Nadine Ramsey placing sixth. 

Projected percentages:  

Mitch Landrieu         50%

Troy Henry                24%

John Georges                       13%

Rob Couhig              7%

James Perry              3%

Nadine Ramsey       2%

Others                                    1% 

Fielkow, Clarkson Re-elected 

At-Large Council members Arnie Fielkow and Jacquelyn Clarkson will be returned to office in the primary due to the election only featuring three major candidates.  Because all the candidates run on one ballot and the electorate can cast two votes, Fielkow and Clarkson will benefit from the second vote distributed by black voters to the two incumbents whose first choice was Cynthia Willard-Lewis, while Willard-Lewis is expected to receive little crossover support from white voters.  Lewis would have benefited from a second black candidate of stature on the ballot and stronger Republican candidates splitting the white vote.  Four years ago, Clarkson failed to lock up her initial bid for councilman-at-large in the primary because of a split white vote involving two Republican candidates and a two other significant white Democrats. 

Batt, Guidry Go to the Second Round 

Former Republican Councilmember Jay Batt will face Democrat Susan Guidry in a runoff.  Batt has had to contend with opposition from not just the other candidates in the race but also the Anybody But Batt group that spoiled his bid for re-election in 2006 and the Democratic incumbent council member who beat him last time, Shelley Midura.  Helping Batt this time around is a repopulated Lakeview area.   

Other Council Races 

Council member Stacy Head, who in my not so humble opinion OUGHT to be mayor, will be re-elected in District B. 

Kristin Palmer, after narrowly losing a bid for District C four years before, will be elected the council over Republican assessor Tom Arnold.  Though Arnold has been a long enduring figure in Algiers, he has sustained too much bad publicity from articles in the Times Picayune and his campaign has struggled to gain momentum.

District D voters will return Cynthia Hedge-Morrell.  This will be a third term for Morrell, who was elected to post pre-Hurricane Katrina after then-incumbent council member Marlin Gusman was elected criminal sheriff.   

District E voters have six candidates to choose from.  The district, hit hardest by Hurricane Katrina, includes New Orleans East and the lower Nine.  Conventional wisdom says that state representative Austin Badon and former Senator Jon Johnson will be in a runoff, assuming one of the two doesn’t win the spot outright despite the crowded field.   

Upset Special:  Mauberret Misses Runoff 

The Times Picayune, who has made punishing assessors that opposed the office’s consolidation newspaper editorial and beat writing policy, will claim another skin on Saturday assessor Claude Mauberret finishes in third place behind Erroll Williams and Janis Lemle.   

It should be noted that Williams was recently endorsed by US Senator Mary Landrieu, a peculiar move considering the obscurity of the office Williams is seeking, Landrieu’s own high office and of course the fact that her brother is on the same ballot for mayor.  The Times Picayune article that heralded the endorsement made reference to the possibility that Louisiana’s senior senator might have been fulfilling a political deal, as her brother is on the LIFE ticket, which is closely affiliated with Williams and former mayor Marc Morial.   

Lemle has the backing of the Times Picayune and the “I Quit” political group that targeted assessors for defeat in the previous election in a bid to jump-start consolidation of the offices.   

You Best Your ASSessor There’s Media Bias

While the “high-and-mightys” at Howard Avenue have endorsed many candidates in the city elections, the trifecta the Times Picayune is pushing the hardest are Landrieu, Lemle and Palmer. 

Endorsements- 

Jay Batt for District A  Councilmen have to make tough decisions.  Jay’s made them and paid for them, rightly or wrongly.  One of the things that has amazed me about the district, particularly in the Carrollton area, has been the number of “no-this” and “no-that” signs.  New Orleans has been justly accused as a city allergic to change, progress and development.  Neighborhood and parochial matters aside, there is ONE thing that stands out about Batt- it was because of his efforts the city’s self-destructive residency rules on first-responders was finally scrapped.  It’s not good enough for District A to select a “good vote”; they need to have a leader in that spot.  What few reform measures that have advanced in the city generally originated from District A council members, including term-limits (thank you Peggy Wilson).   

That Batt has lost twice for this seat and threw his hat in the ring again knowing he’d be targeted again by unmovable critics speaks of his humility and dedication to the city and the area.  I fully encourage District A voters to support his bid to return to the council.   

Stacy Head for District B  If the full authority of supreme elector of Orleans Parish was vested in my hands, Ms. Head would be mayor.  The Crescent City’s reigning frozen-food internet critic has courage, integrity and resilience.   

Cynthia Hedge-Morrell  for District D  She fought for Holy Cross High School and she was the swing vote on ending the residency rule on first-responders.  Her errors in other areas are largely insignificant in the big picture. 

Austin Badon for District E  Consistently supported reform legislation in the House of Representatives.   

At-Large  No endorsement from me personally but I will mention the Greater New Orleans Republicans endorsed the incumbents, Jackie Clarkson and Arnie Fielkow.  I would also like to add that Congressman Steve Scalise has endorsed Clarkson.  I’d love to see the Louisiana GOP condemn the state’s most conservative congressman for that “sin”.   

Mayor  Once again, I'll plead no endorsement in the primary but I will point out some harsh realities.   

Republican mayoral candidate Rob Couhig has expressed support for the reappointment of Jim Letten as US Attorney.  So has Mitch Landrieu.   

That said, Paul Prudhomme couldn’t cook the poll numbers enough to come up with a scenario where Couhig makes a runoff.  Furthermore, there is ZERO doubt that Landrieu will not only be in a runoff (if there is a runoff) but will also lead the field, doing no worse than falling just short of winning mayor outright. 

And John Georges has no chance of making a runoff so long as Couhig’s name is on the ballot as the white anti-Landrieu vote (however big THAT segment is in Orleans Parish)  is hopelessly split.  

Finally, Georges’s “stand-up routine” before the DPEC did two things: boosted Couhig and Landrieu’s white numbers and killed his chances of being elected mayor.   

This might not be pleasant for Republicans who'd sooner stick their finger in a light socket than on a button for anyone named Landrieu, but that is the way it is 

I’d also lik e to mention that a runoff between Landrieu and Henry will be the ugliest and most racially charged campaign since the Morial-Mintz runoff in 1994 and perhaps even worse.  Henry has not been shy about playing the race card and it’s going to require a whole lot of demagoguery by Henry and the usual suspects of “the men of God crowd” flanking him to pull this one out in the second round. 

The voters in Orleans Parish have an opportunity to skip a whole lot of unpleasantness and settle the mayor’s race in the primary.  So once again, I offer no endorsement but I strongly encourage the electorate to choose wisely.   

Assessor  no endorsement Not a peep out of me in this one either but if you really wanted to peeve off the Times Picayune, the same rocket scientists that endorsed Barack Obama for the presidency, then a vote for Claude Mauberret would do the trick. 

Judge Civil Court, Division J  The Greater New Orleans Republicans endorsed Paula Brown, an African-American candidate who enjoyed support from the National Rifle Association (!) in her previous bid for the bench.  I think highly of Ms. Brown and believe she will do an admirable job.  However, I’ve known Stephen Chestnut for a long time and can personally vouch for his integrity.  I would vote for Stephen Chestnut.   

State Senator, 5^th District  Question: what do Irma Muse Dixon and Karen Carter Peterson have in common?  They’ve both lost congressional races to “Dollar” Bill Jefferson.  Gosh it’s nice that I don’t have to preface Jefferson’s name with the title “U.S. Representative”.  I’ve known Karen for a long time and she’s not the radical Jefferson has made her out to be in the 2006 congressional campaign.  And while she has been a pest to the Jindal Administration, Carter-Peterson would be the most effective for the district in the upper chamber.  Granted I’m not making an endorsement, just sayin’. 

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The Return of The Early Call....Maybe

Barring rapture to south Florida for reasons that are DAT obvious, I will be making projections on Saturday evening based upon the early returns from strategically selected precincts.  Check out mikebayham.blogspot.com.  The Early Call has only botched one election since 2006: Jim Webb's upset in Virginia. 

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Mike Bayham is a political consultant in southeast Louisiana.  He posts regular columns on the New Orleans Saints and politics at mikebayham.blogspot.com.