The Mary Landrieu campaign has just sent information to Bayoubuzz claiming a new Zogby poll suggesting that John Kennedy for Senate campaign is ahead in the Louisiana US Senate race is based upon the Zogby poll is data based upon a "bogus" poll. Here is the comments from the Friends of Mary Landrieu and below are the information just received by the John Kennedy campaign:
Here is the "alert" forwarded by the Friends of Mary Landrieu campaign concerning the new poll:
Some of you may have heard about a new "interactive" online Zogby "poll" that shows John Kennedy ahead of Sen. Landrieu.There are serious issues with the "poll," and it should not be taken at face value. The American Association for Public Opinion Research advises against publicizing or promotion of "self-selected" interactive "polling." Please see below for statements discrediting the use of this poll:
Zogby Is Not Independent, Company Has Been Paid Nearly $7,000 By Kennedy For Senate Campaign Polling: The Kennedy campaign paid $6,900 for polling conducted by Zogby in late 2007. (Kennedy FEC Report, 4th Quarter 2007 Kennedy Campaign Statement, November 2007)
Kennedy's Original Poll Conducted By Zogby Called "Ridiculous" By Stuart Rothenberg: In May 2008, Stuart Rothenberg, the editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, labeled Kennedy's original Zogby poll as "ridiculous." Rothenberg stated that two polls showing Landrieu leading Kennedy in the Senate race "undoubtedly are closer to the truth" than Kennedy's poll. (Roll Call, 5/27/08)
Zogby Poll Was Not Done By Random Sample, Was Conducted Over The Internet: The poll conducted by Zogby International was done over the internet by users who signed up to take Zogby polls. It is not a random sample of Louisiana voters. In 2006, Texas Monthly reporter Paul Burka said of Zogby web-based surveys, "It is not a random sample; the polling organization solicits responses by e-mail." (Zogby Poll Release, 7/31/08; Columbia Journalism Review, 9/18/06)
American Association For Public Opinion Research Condemns "Self-Selected" Surveys: The American Association For Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) believes that any publicizing or promotion of self-selected "polls" which report only the people who call in or write-in, "not only damages legitimate market and survey research, but can be very misleading when used to influence public policy or simply to disseminate information about the general public." The organization lists the practice under "Survey Practices the AAOPR Condemns" on its website. (AAOPR, "Survey Practices that AAOPR Condemns," Accessed 7/31/08)
AAPOR - Self-Selected Opinion Polls Often Produce Flawed Results: The American Association For Public Opinion Research states that self-selected opinion polls, or SLOP surveys, are not selected randomly. Instead, individuals choose whether to participate. The margin of sampling error cannot be estimated for a SLOP poll, no matter how large. The AAOPR stated, "Researchers have learned, often to their great embarrassment, that these types of samples often produce flawed results. Respondents who volunteer to participate in such surveys tend to be more extreme or otherwise very different in their views than those who do not. In no way can they be said to be representative of the population, so the survey results cannot be used to say anything useful about a target population." The AAPOR also states, "The Internet is awash with SLOP polls that invite people to answer a question and then view the results. In addition to attracting only those with an ax to grind on a particular issue, even the best Internet-derived convenience samples currently tend to include too few older people, minorities and less affluent, less well educated. In short, they tend to miss people who don't have access to a computer or an Internet connection. These surveys also invite manipulation, as a number of news organizations have learned to their dismay." (AAPOR, "Bad Samples," Accessed 7/31/08)
National Council On Public Polls - Online Surveys Should Not Be Described As Polls: The National Council on Public Polls (NCPP) said in a statement about web-based surveys, "...there is a consensus that many web-based surveys are completely unreliable. Indeed, to describe them as 'polls' is to misuse that term." (NCPP Statement, Accessed, 7/31/08)
NCPP - The Only Polls That Should Be Reported By Journalists Are "Scientific" Polls; In An Unscientific Poll, Respondents "Volunteer" Their Opinions, Self-Selecting Themselves: The NCPP stated that the "only polls that should be reported are 'scientific' polls." The NCPP also states, "In a scientific poll, the pollster identifies and seeks out the people to be interviewed. In an unscientific poll, the respondents usually 'volunteer' their opinions, selecting themselves for the poll." (NCPP, "20 Questions A Journalist Should Ask About Poll Results," Accessed 7/31/08)
Slate Magazine - "Online Polls Aren't Even Polls": In January 2000, Chris Sullentrop, a columnist for the New York Times, wrote an article for Slate Magazine that stated, "Online polls aren't even polls." The article continued, "...the results of an online 'poll' in which thousands or even millions of users participate cannot be extrapolated to anything, because those results tell you only about the opinions of those who participated." Sullentrop noted that online polls were not an accurate measure of public opinion because: 1) respondents are not randomly selected; 2) online polls have a socioeconomic bias; and 3) questions and answers are always given in the same order. (Slate Magazine, 1/12/00)
Zogby Internet Polls Have Questionable Track Record, Overestimated Competitiveness In Statewide Races In 2006: According to Charles Franklin, the co-developer of Pollster.com and a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, said Zogby Internet polling had a questionable track record in statewide races for Senate and Governor in 2006, where they often far over-estimated the competitiveness of races compared to conventional phone polls taken at the same time. (Pollster.com, Charles Franklin posting, 11/27/07)
Polling Expert Said Journalists Should Be Wary Of Any Zogby Interactive Poll: In 2006, Cliff Zukin, a political science professor and polling expert at Rutgers University, suggested that journalists should generally be wary of any Zogby interactive poll. Zuskin said, "The Zogby stuff, on scientific grounds, is quite questionable...Online, Internet, opt-in polling, where people volunteer to be respondents, doesn't really have a basis in scientific validity. There are two kinds of samples in the world. There are probability samples, and there are non-probability samples." (Columbia Journalism Review, 9/18/06)
New York Times Will Not Publish Self-Selected Surveys: According to the New York Times' standards for poll results, "Self-selected or 'opt-in' samples - including Internet, e-mail, fax, call-in, street intercept, and non-probability mail-in samples - do not meet The Times's standards regardless of the number of people who participate...In order to be worthy of publication in The Times, a survey must be representative, that is, based on a random sample of respondents." (New York Times, 8/29/06)
July 31, 2008 (225) 246-2791
NEW ZOGBY POLL: KENNEDY LEADS LANDRIEU 47% - 41%
-Zogby: “Landrieu Faces A Strong Conservative Challenger In John Kennedy” -
Zogby Poll: 3 Senate Seats Now Held By GOP At Big Risk Of Being Taken By Dems
“Louisiana: Republican John Kennedy is among the GOP’s best hopes to oust a Democratic incumbent. He leads Democrat Sen. Mary Landrieu, 47%-41%.”
…
Pollster John Zogby: “…In Louisiana, Sen. Mary Landrieu faces a strong conservative challenger in John Kennedy. The state was profoundly shaken by Hurricane Katrina, and Landrieu faces a different situation than she did six years ago
Congratulations, Steve, on how even-handed you were on this "story." There must have been some more material from the Landrieu campaign that you could have published about the Zogby poll that would have "balanced" the few sentences you used from Kennedy. Why don't you have the integrity to come out of the closet and admit that you you are a dedicated Democrat supporter, rather than continue the fiction that you are independent. Your stands on Jindal or any other political issue are so predictable. They have no credibility with me. I check your site to see what the Democrat party line is. Written by Hermann
on 8/1/2008
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Since when did the New York Times start using standards? Written by wantabefree
on 8/1/2008
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Oh well D.Q....... It IS the new millenium, and EVERYTHING is computerized!!!!! I am glad we are turning our reasoning processes over to machines instead of being burdened with having a conscience, or a soul....................... Written by
on 8/1/2008
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SurveySpot, another internet polling firm is conducting an online political survey of Louisiana voters. When I indicated strong support for Landrieu, I was screened out of the rest of the survey. It may well have been another poll paid for by Kennedy or the Louisiana GOP. Written by David Quidd
on 7/31/2008
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Gabriel went to the Lord and said, "I have to talk to you. We have some Texans up here who are causing problems... They're swinging on the Pearly Gates, my horn is missing, and they are wearing T-shirts instead of their robes; there's barbecue sauce and Picante sauce all over everything, especially their T-shirts; their dogs are riding in the chariots and chasing the sheep; they are wearing baseball caps and cowboy hats instead of their halos. They refuse to keep the stairway to Heaven clean, and their boots are marking and scuffing up the halls of Wisdom. There are watermelon seeds and tortilla chip crumbs all over the place. Some of them are walking around with just one wing; and they insist on bringing their horses with them." ..... The Lord said, "Texans are Texans, Gabriel. Heaven is home to all of my children. If you want to know about real problems, call the Devil." ..... So Gabriel calls the Devil who answers the phone and says, "Hello---hold on a minute." .. When he returns to the phone the Devil says, "O.K., I'm back. What can I do for you? "... Gabriel replied, "I just want to know what kind of problems you are having down there with the Texans." ... The Devil said, "Hold on again. I need to check on something." ..... After about 5 minutes the Devil returned to the phone and said. "I'm back. Now what was the question?" ..... Gabriel said, "What kind of problems are you having down there with the Texans?".... The Devil said, "Man, I don't believe this...hold on." .... This time the Devil was gone 15 minutes and when he returns he says, "I'm sorry Gabriel, I can't talk right now. Those Texans have put out the fire and are trying to install air conditioning... Written by
on 7/31/2008
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But you simply can't overlook the basic honesty in this; The only relation, especially inbreeding wise, is in the long line of blue-bloods from which Dick/Bush/Nobama hail. Vote for "change", vote in the their (blue-)blood brutha. Welcome to the New World Order, you heard his speech just the other day, no? He's a big proponent of the UN. Take a look at Agenda 21, man... they put it in writing - 500 million is the optimum population, and they don't/won't wait for it. You think the food crisis is an accident? ... Nobama or McWorse - A Nation divided will fall. Shape up or we're getting shipped out. Shipped out to the FEMA camps. Will you take your microchip or lose your head? ... Wake up and spread the word before it's too late. A vote for these guys is a vote to kill the United States. It is time to pick sides on the only issue that matters. Are you for the Republic or against it? Those opposed please meet the tar and feather brigade outside... Written by Some Texan out West
on 7/31/2008
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good point... I certainly could care less if they both dropped off the face of the planet. Written by there's one for "Doesn't Care"
on 7/31/2008
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Who REALLY cares besides Landrieu and Kennedy? Now THERE'S a poll to be conducted!! Written by
on 7/31/2008
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Many polls intend to sway public opinion, not gauge it. I am a big fan of polls mein own self. Written by Joseph Goebbels
on 7/31/2008
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Frankly, dears, every poll should be taken with a grain of salt. People are prone to lie when they are so rudely interrupted by telephone calls or by going online to create a false record of their feelings. Mrs. Snelling may be right in this respect but we find Mrs. Snellings to be somewhat of a bogus oursleves. Written by RhettsWIfe
on 7/31/2008
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Kennedy's pollster says he is ahead and Jindal's pollster says he has a 69% approval rating. Both results should be taken with a grain of salt Written by David Quidd
on 7/31/2008
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