Yesterday, Lt. Governor Mitch Landrieu, the frontrunner in the race for Mayor, announced that he will not be a candidate in next year’s election. This was obviously a difficult decision for Landrieu. Twice before, in 1994 and 2006, Landrieu has run for Mayor of New Orleans and lost. He loves the city and admitted that the “resurrection of New Orleans is in the forefront of my mind.”
However, he did not want to gamble his political career on an uncertain race for Mayor. If he ran again and lost it would irreparably damage his chances of achieving higher political office. If he entered the race for Mayor, there is no guarantee that Landrieu would have prevailed. In 2006, Landrieu lost to a politically damaged incumbent, Ray Nagin. In that election, African American turnout was depressed due to the Hurricane Katrina evacuation. Such will not be the case in the 2010 election as African American voter turnout will be much higher.
Landrieu also realizes that he will never be able to garner the support of a bloc of white conservative Republican voters, who primarily live in Lakeview, Uptown and the Garden District. It seems that many of these voters will not vote for a Landrieu, no matter who is the alternative candidate. Just look at what happened in 2006 when these conservative Republicans voted for Nagin even though they knew very well that the Mayor was a disaster. Nagin rode to victory on an unusual coalition of African Americans and conservative Republicans. The Mayor was endorsed by African American ministers, but he was also endorsed by GOP attorney Rob Couhig and groups such as the Greater New Orleans Republicans. At this point, it is quite possible that many of these conservative voters have buyer’s remorse, but it illustrates the trouble Landrieu would face in another election.
The recent poll by James Carville showed Landrieu with a high approval rating and in a good position to make a run-off if he ran. Other polls have showed Landrieu running first in a field of mayoral candidates. However, Landrieu realized that the mayor’s race would be a difficult campaign and his opponents would likely play political hardball. As voters witnessed in the last election, Landrieu is uncomfortable getting in the political mud with his opponents and would try to take the “high road.” Sadly, in politics, the “high road” is often the road to defeat.
At this point, Landrieu will likely set his sights on the Governor’s Mansion. He could be a candidate in 2011 and oppose Jindal if the Governor continues to stumble and is seen as politically vulnerable. In addition, there are rumors that Jindal may jump into the 2010 Senate race if the incumbent Republican U.S. Senator David Vitter is faltering in the polls. Jindal could help save the seat for the GOP if Vitter loses support. Landrieu also knows very well that Jindal has presidential aspirations and could decide to run for President in 2012. If he does not run for President, he may be selected as the vice presidential nominee on the Republican ticket. Obviously, if Jindal is elected Senator, Vice President or President, he will have to vacate his position and Landrieu will be come Governor.
The worst case scenario is for Landrieu to wait until Jindal finishes two terms and run for Governor in 2015. No matter what happens, it is almost guaranteed that at some point in the future, Mitch Landrieu will be a candidate for Governor of Louisiana.
His departure is great news for New Orleans Councilman-at-large Arnie Fielkow, who will now become the frontrunner in the race. Fielkow, who has been coy about his plans, will almost certainly run for the office at this point.
Other potential candidates include Independent businessman John Georges, Republican attorney Rob Couhig, State Representative Karen Carter (D-New Orleans), State Representative Austin Badon (D-New Orleans), State Senator Ed Murray (D-New Orleans), housing advocate James Perry and musician Irvin Mayfield.
Jeff Crouere is the Host of “Ringside Politics,” which airs at 7:30 p.m. Fri. and 10:00 p.m. Sun. on WLAE-TV 32, a PBS station, and 7 till 11 a.m. weekdays on WGSO 990 AM in New Orleans and the Northshore. He is the Political Analyst for WGNO-TV ABC26 and a Columnist for selected publications. For more information, visit his web site at RingsidePolitics.com. E-mail him at jeff@ringsidepolitics.com.
James Carville's poll also showed that the way to the Mayor's office was through the Black Churches...(that was not encouraging for Mitch.) Written by KjunLady
on 7/9/2009
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God helpthis city if Irvin Mayfield ran and won. He's as egocentric and Nagin and has even less experience at goverrnance than Nagin had. All he kows is how to insist on traveeling first class and staying in expensive suites. His one asset, (as some might think), is his self promotion and his color). He seems to be devastating the libraby system, removing all the experienced people, and doesn't care. With luck, he'll stick to his night club. Written by Noladude
on 7/9/2009
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Yesterday, Lt. Governor Mitch Landrieu, the frontrunner in the race for Mayor, announced that he will not be a candidate in next year’s election. This was obviously a difficult decision for Landrieu. Twice before, in 1994 and 2006, Landrieu has run for Mayor of New Orleans and lost. He loves the city and admitted that the “resurrection of 
