Now that Louisiana Lt. Governor Mitch Landrieu shook the stuffing’s out of any New Orleans political certainty, and since qualifying starts today, let’s play “the primary election game”.

Get ready for Question Number One:  Which two New Orleans Mayoral candidates will be in that number on February 7, the day after the New Orleans primary election day and my gosh, Super Bowl Sunday?

The Answer:  The morning line says, it just depends.

Not a copout.  It’s true.

There’s more factors in this election than you can shake a bunch of gris-gris. 

Such as race, who runs, who drops out, the Saints, the turnout, the actual vote, the money spent, cross-over votes, and boy, we could go on. 

For those who want to play this game, here’s a possible hint:  The winner might be the candidate who turns out the most voters at a time the electorate could be quite distracted.

Entering the discussion is a well-recognized statistician, a numbers-cruncher.

According Greg Rigamer, (with whom I talked this morning) there were approximately 150,000 voters in last year’s presidential race.  Due to a possible confluence of variables including the Saints season and general interest (or lack of interest) in the upcoming primary election, Rigamer says there could be a low of 90,000 voters.  However, his best estimate is the number of voters will be within the 120,000 range.     

Rigamer feels that if the Saints are in the February 7 Super Bowl, it will obviously be more difficult to attract those considered to be “marginal” voters.  In fact, judging from my knowledge of Saints fans, should the black and gold be lucky to participate in that super-duper encounter, quite a number of fans won’t know the difference between “Who Dats” and “What’s Dats” on February 6--primary election day. 

Despite the possible mental diversions, Rigamer believes that due to some of the specific candidates in the race, there should be more money spent which would mean more advertising, more stories in the media and possibly more overall election interest.

Ca-Ching!

Which means that after qualifying ends this week, those television, radio, Internet, billboard ads will light up the information highways more than those Holiday Greetings commercials.    

The Landrieu Factor

After yesterday, it’s impossible to play the “who’s going to win the primary”

game without now considering the “Landrieu Factor”. 

When Mitch Landrieu entered the race on Tuesday, you could just feel the political paradigm shift.

The political candidates went into overtime rethinking their strategies and looking at the numbers and considering the casualties.  In fact, the rumor mill is strong that a major candidate or more will drop out of the race due to the phenomena called Landrieu.  

At the minimum, almost the entire New Orleans political world began to wonder which candidate would Landrieu’s entry impact the most.

Conventional wisdom says watch who screams the shrillest.  In this case, that distinction went to John Georges compared to the other candidates. 

The other candidates either remained silent about Landrieu’s announcement or hardly acknowledged his presence in the field.  By comparison, Georges said bluntly "New Orleans needs a leader who will face the tough decisions about our future head on and that is the kind of mayor I will be," Georges said. "What we don't need is a professional politician who has trouble making up his mind. Where other candidates see problems that urgently need to be solved, some apparently only see political opportunity for self-advancement. I am not seeking a title. I am applying for a job and I will be qualifying for the mayor's race bright and early tomorrow morning".

Despite his strong statements, whether Georges will be the candidate most victimized by Mitch Landrieu is really grist for discussion and that is all.  Georges has some real “strengths”.  He has good connections in both the white and black communities, has significant initial support and he won the New Orleans vote in the gubernatorial election against two democrats and a wildly popular Bobby Jindal.

However, I think Landrieu will definitely do damage to the white candidates more than one from the black community.

Unquestionably, Landrieu has significant popularity in the African American community.  But, don’t forget, he only received about  20 percent of that vote in the runoff against Ray Nagin four years ago when he lost by four percentage points while taking 25 percent of that vote in the general election.  Also, traditionally blacks and whites vote for members of their own races (while there is certainly cross over).   

Obviously, he will draw from members of the African American community also, but Georges, Jacobs and to a lesser extent, Republican Rob Couhig could absorb the Landrieu hit the most.

The Couhig Factor

With a candidate possibly needing 18 to 22 percent of the vote to be a winner of  the runoff marbles, perhaps one of the major point persons in the entire election could be Rob Couhig.  Of course, I am assuming he qualifies for the race, and that he gets the strong support of the Louisiana Republican party and the New Orleans Republicans.

You can bet your mama that Couhig, as a Republican, will attract that base, some independent voters and even conservative democrats.  But, your mama will tell you that “attracting”, “ain’t the same as “voting”.

Since he failed to finish in the primary in 2006, some of his base might not want to throw their vote away.  Some likely Couhig supporters have told me that they just might cast their ballot for one of the other candidates then waste their vote.  But, should Couhig run, don’t count him out.  If anything, he is a “gamer”.  If he is not a winner, he could certainly be a spoiler.  And, a darn good one, too.  Should Couhig retain that base and show he can possibly win (since his base is made up of more of the habitual voter population) those voters will most likely pull from the other major white candidates which will in turn raise the chances of the primary black candidates and possibly even Landrieu.  Then, there is the angry “white voter”.  Many of them and large blocks of loyal Couhig supporters would not vote for “a Landrieu” or Mitch Landrieu if they were paid.  Don’t forget, that group actually helped Nagin beat Landrieu in 2006.

Turnout Matters The Most

So, Landrieu’s presence in the election absolutely turned the political field topsy-turvy.  Yes, we have a couple of months to go before the first ballot.  And, yes, by that time, some candidates might not qualify, could pull out of the race or might become non-factors.  Unquestionably, we can draw some parallels from the 2006 election.  But, with Mitch putting political certainty into the ditch, with the Saints possibly playing the biggest role in the city since its birth over forty years ago, the future of Tiger Woods is probably more definite than the first week of February.  Still, I am willing to end this game of political speculation with this no-brainer:  Those people on February 6, 2010 who push those buttons in those voting booths will have the final say on primary day as to who runs in the final bout, the general elections.  Don’t expect much focus then either.  After all, the New Orleans elections Part II occurs slightly more than one week from the “greatest party on earth”—Mardi Gras.  Finding live voters sober enough to cast their lot  could be the real campaign challenge. 

Qualified so far: Jerry Jacobs, Leslie Jacobs, Ed Murray,  Mitch Landrieu, Henry, John Georges, Nadine Ramsey, Rob Couhig --12:45 pm