By Christopher Tidmore 

     In an exclusive, The Louisiana Weekly has learned that former New Orleans Councilman Troy Carter has claimed the lead position amongst a competitive field of Democratic candidates in Second Congressional District race.

     According to a new poll of 350 super chronic Democratic voters, in the field August 2^nd & 3^rd, Troy Carter ranks first with 16.4 percent of the vote. The sole White candidate, former WDSU reporter Helena Moreno is in a statistical tie for second place at 12.2 percent with current Orleans District C Councilman James Carter at 10.5 percent.
     Troubled incumbent Congressman William Jefferson ranks fourth at 8.4 percent, followed by State Rep. Cedric Richmond at 7.6 percent, Jefferson Councilman Byron Lee at 5.8 percent, and former Nagin Administration aide Kenya Smith at 2.1 percent.

      Moreno and Carter both fall within the survey’s margin of error, plus or minus 5%, quite a fall for the WDSU newscaster who led in the field in most previous polls. This survey, conducted for the Troy Carter campaign by the respected firm Southern Media and Opinion Research, used a sample that met the gender, racial and age profile of the 2nd Congressional District. 

        The findings contrast with another recent Southern Media poll where Moreno led the field with 14.9 percent of the vote to James Carter's 12.7%, Troy Carter's 12.4%, and Congressman Bill Jefferson's 12.4%.

     One political consultant close to both camps told The Louisiana Weekly privately, “When Helena announced she was in first place, and a lot of people were prepared to support her. But, she hasn’t connected with those groups.”

     Heads of women’s organizations and the leaders of the gay community expressed frustration to this newspaper that they had not had an opportunity to sit down with the candidate. Defenders of Moreno point out that one candidate hardly has the time to meet with every potential supporter in a one month span, but for a White candidate to win a closed party primary in a majority Black congressional district, he or she by definition must target as many predominantly White Democratic-leaning constituencies as humanly possible. Without nearly complete and unified support from the liberal Caucasian community, Moreno has no chance of making October’s Democratic runoff, much less emerge victorious in November.

       Moreover, this survey seemed to indicate that Moreno continues to enjoy little, if any, Black crossover support. Of course, most of the other candidates have miniscule Caucasian backing. Troy Carter, according to the results, is the only candidate with measurable support across racial lines; though, with an undecided vote amounting to 37% of the electorate, the race is far from over.

       Most of the former Councilman’s support came from older African-American voters, and according to the poll, Troy Carter ranks as the second choice of all other candidates’ voters, with a farther room to grow than many of his opponents.

       As an internal campaign memo from Carter’s political consultant Roy Fletcher put it to his candidate, “Currently, the pundits consider you a ‘dark horse’ in this election. However, the data indicates you are the ‘lead horse‘. For strategic purposes, it may be for the best that the punditry continues to see you in such a light.”
      “The key significance of the findings,” Fletcher continued, “is your second place vote. While no one breaks into double digits on this dimension, you are running at 20%, meaning you are very acceptable to all voter groups. Moreover, when coupled with the performance of your profile, the data strongly indicates that growth is likely and will be very significant. In other words, your profile converts second place votes into first place choice. This is primarily due to polled voters favorable impressions of your persistence as a candidate since 2006 and your background as a business leader and former elected official.”

     The most damning result of the survey revealed that not only is Congressman Bill Jefferson receiving support at much lower levels than in the last election, but that the Congressman’s support continues to decline. As one Troy Carter operative put it, “The Black community knows that Jeff[erson] has delivered in the past. But they also know that he has reached his pinnacle. He can’t do any more. And, his support is falling.”

      The survey also shows Troy Carter making inroads in Jefferson Parish at the expense of Jefferson Councilman Byron Lee, while still drawing support away from James Carter in Orleans. The results indicate that Lee had less traction with Jefferson Parish voters than one would expect as the only suburban candidate running, and that Orleans voters were discontented with James Carter for running for Congress so soon after winning a term as a new Councilman. Consequently, Troy Carter’s profile, according to the poll, appears to state that he enjoys further room to grow than his peers.

      The survey is yet another blow to Bill Jefferson. Just two weeks ago, the Congressman lost the support of the Orleans Democratic Executive Committee to James Carter, an organization that has supported Jefferson in every race he has made throughout the years. Labor and other party constituencies have been endorsing his opponents in recent weeks.

        Cedric Richmond has garnered considerable support amongst many traditional African-American political organizations in recent weeks, and James Carter has the compete support of arguably the most powerful Black political group remaining in the City of New Orleans, B.O.L.D.

      Outside of his family, Bill Jefferson has not had many political organizations strongly backing his re-election efforts. Still, the incumbent should not be counted out. Despite reports that he had only $45,000 in the bank, insiders tell the Weekly that his fundraising efforts had had some success, rendering him an expected $300,000--more than any of his opponents with the exception of Helena Morano.

     The September 6^th primary promises to be a low turnout election; however, meaning a sophisticated Get Out The Vote (GOTV) effort could determine who ends up in the October runoff.

     Helena Moreno did receive some good news this week, though. The State Supreme Court refused to reverse a District Court ruling that Orleans School Board member Jimmy Fahrenholtz should be barred from the race. As a result, Moreno should not face another White contender on Sept. 6^th.

     Still, the outspoken School Board member is not giving up. Fahrenholtz filed a motion in Federal Court on Wednesday seeking to have his name put back on the ballot.

      The School Board member has always stood as the greatest danger to Moreno's chances of a runoff slot. 

       Fahrenholtz was one of the leaders in expanding charter schools in Orleans Parish and has sought expanded autonomy for principals throughout his two terms on the School Board--issues very popular in the White community, even with Caucasian Democrats. He and Una Anderson led the fight in the months prior to Katrina against the firing of reform-Superintendent Anthony Amato and helped mastermind the subsequent school board election that saw the anti-Amato members defeated at the polls.

        In recent years, Fahrenholtz has been identified with his fiscal conservative reforms and his opposition to local teacher’s union “sacred cows“ like tenure. Ironically, though, he won the traditionally Republican school board seat almost eight years ago embracing more traditionally liberal interest groups. In a six week campaign from announcement to victory, Fahrenholtz defeated a better financed GOP opponent by embracing the groups to which he was accused of being connected.

        When his opponent highlighted a connection to teacher’s unions, Fahrenholtz, an attorney reminded the audience that he was a former union shop steward. When the Republican candidate said he had connections to the gay community, Fahrenholtz had a virtual press conference with several of the leaders of the Forum for Equality.

       “Everytime he accused us of being something, we said we were and more,” Fahrenholtz’s then campaign manager Sidney Arroyo explained, and the unorthodox strategy eight years ago explains part of the reason why the better financed Moreno campaign would have been concerned about the School Board member’s entrance into the Congressional contest.

      From a name recognition standpoint, Moreno and Fahrenholtz would rank a near tie, but while the former WDSU reporter has a core of support that sees her as a fresh, yet informed, voice on the political scene, Fahrenholtz would have enjoyed a core of support from the Gay Community, Yuppie Liberals, and the DINOs--Democrats in Name Only--often elderly people born before the GOP revolution that like the School Board member’s fiscal conservatism. It was a core of support that critically endangers a position for Morano in the Democratic Partisan Runoff.

       Of course, the major difference in the two campaigns came from Moreno’s intention to spend upwards of a million dollars on her campaign, much of it from family and friends; whereas, Fahrenholtz began his campaign with little or any money, a problem which has plagued the School Board member for years, and helped bring about his current difficulties.

       Put simply, Jimmy Fahrenholtz never particularly liked the money chase that constitutes modern politics. Fundraising had never been an interest or self-professed strength. Instead, the School Board member relied on a core support of private citizens who liked his outspoken stands, and the politically interested who attended his now legendary political parties at his home in the Esplanade area.

       This disinterest was the root of the School Board members’ problems. He missed a few campaign finance filings. Having raised little money in those periods, Fahrenholtz fell prey to a very common experience amongst new politicians--a lax attitude about campaign finance filings.

        For an elected official, without a staff or the financial wherewithal to hire CPAs to do the work, campaign finance filings can be a laborious process of page after page of chronicling contributions, most of them in small dollar amounts. When the filing periods come and few if any contributions were received, the temptation to relegate the paperwork to a priority of importance behind one’s work in a legislative body is attractive.

        Attractive, but politically dangerous. The Ethics Board compounds fines for missed filings, and was began as a few hundred dollars for Fahrenholtz mounted quickly. The School Board member claimed that an accurate calculation of his fines amounts to $15,000. The Ethics Board wants over $36,000. The fact that he had any motivated Civil District Court Judge Nadine Ramsey to disqualify him from the Democratic Primary.

       Filing documents for the race ask whether there are outstanding fines owed. Technically, as Fahrenholtz has argued, this question is directed at federal accounts. A candidate for Congress must maintain a separate campaign account for his federal election; cannot transfer any resources from his state account or use his state account to aide his race; and he answers to the Federal Election Commission, not the Louisiana State Board of Ethics. All campaign documents go to the FEC, for example.

       Houma attorney Conrad S.P Williams III alleged in his lawsuit that the state sets the qualifications for Congressional candidates. If state law requires fines to be paid, then Louisiana law can be used as a justification to jettison a congressional candidate from a contest.

      The State Court of Appeals split 5 to 5, and the Supreme Court opted not to hear Fahrenholtz's bid to return to the September Primary Ballot.

       Nevertheless, the clear victor of that lawsuit is Helena Moreno. The former TV reporter can adopt her outsider stance, without challenge from Fahrenholtz. Moreover, post-Katrina, some estimates rank the largest plurality of chronic Democratic primary voters as white.

         Many are professed liberals or members of interest groups that Moreno has long hoped would take a chance on a professed sensible progressive newcomer over more established African-American politicians of their acquaintance, recent poll results aside.  

       Perhaps in order to reach these voters better than she has since her announcement, Moreno made significant staffing changes in her campaign this week. According to sources close to the campaign, the former TV journalist has begun to bring in Democratic consultants with national connections to takeover the ground operations of her bid for Congress.

Bayoubuzz Note:  See a different interpretation by a columnist for Bayoubuzz.  This poll was paid for by Troy Carter.  The poll has a margin of error of approximately 5 percent.  Much depends upon the weight that a poll places on the second place choice and the margin of error.  Based upon that analysis, some might say that the race right now is a four person race if one uses this particular poll at this time.