By Christopher Tidmore, ctidmore@louisianaweekly.com

      House Speaker Nancy Pelosi trumpeted the Democratic victory last Tuesday, Nov. 3rd, in New York's Twenty-Third Congressional District as a sign that Health Care Reform and the current trend of Pres. Obama's agenda enjoyed wide centrist support.  Otherwise, she mused, why would swing moderates and Republican voters have crossed the aisle to vote for Democrat Bill Owens over Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman after the Republican, Dede Scozzafava, dropped out?

       Pelosi said that GOP victories in the New Jersey and Virginia Governor's races were based on "local issues" and had no bearing on her and the Administration full-throated effort to pass Health Care reform.   Every moderate Democrat needed to be on board, and Owens' victory was proof that they would suffer no voter negativity if they did so.

       The problem was that the centrists in the Congress were not buying it.   Louisiana Blue Dog Democrat Charlie Melancon announced that he would vote against the House leadership on any health care bill with a public option--and one of the only House Republicans open to the legislation, Joseph Cao of New Orleans said by Thursday that he would join Melancon in opposition.   

       Both men used the justification that the language that would ban federal funds from being used to pay for abortions was too vague to be effective, but supporters of each privately admitted that both men would pay a higher price politically voting for a public option than against it.  

      Melancon, running for the US Senate against Republican David Vitter, needed to quantify his centrist credentials, and running away from the Health Care proposal when according to the latest polls almost 60% of Louisianians oppose the measure, seemed like a good move.  And Cao, while representing a Democratic district, looked to pay little price for opposing the public option with the conservative Democrats and independent swing voters he needs for a second term.

       Consequently, both men, and many other moderates in the House, read the Tuesday election results quite differently than Pelosi.   The loss of the Governorship and legislative seats in New Jersey matched with the complete GOP victory at all levels in Virginia raised a few amongst Red State centrists.  Rep. Jim Cooper of Tennessee, a leader of the moderate-conservative "Blue Dogs," called the election result "a wake-up call for Congress. A tidal wave could be coming."

        Democratic pollster Peter Hart, in a memo to his clients, warned of the possible consequences of "the disappointment and disgust the American public feels toward Washington. It is as strongly negative as the period of 1979-80 and 1973-74." Both those cycles saw wholesale changes in Congress, the Democrats benefiting in the latter and the Republicans in the former.

        Many of the Blue Dogs and their supporters on Capitol Hill saw the last minute surprise victory of Democrat Bill Owens in NY-23 as the quintessential example of an election where local concerns-- and local constituencies--matter more than national trends.  And, more importantly, where the Democratic candidate won by specifically declaring that he would "vote against the public option" in all of its forms--and take a skeptical view of the Obama administration.

      Owens won as a "Blue Dog" who promised to be an automatic vote for the leadership of his party, and for Melancon--and even Mary Landrieu--he is the exception that proves the rule of their skepticism.   

      In New York's 23rd District, despite all of the attention on Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman’s social views versus Republican Dede Scozzafava’s moderatism, swing local voters cared more about widening of the St. Lawrence Seaway and the local Army base closing than the a Tea Party/Establishment Civil War in the GOP.

      Not that disaffected moderates lacked an impact in the race's outcome. Hoffman 4% margin loss to Owens was exceeded by the 5.5% or 7,000 votes that Scozzafava earned.  Her name remained on the ballot, even after she had dropped out of the race and endorsed the Democrat.  

      "The one you've got to credit with this win for Owens is [New York Democratic Party executive director] June O'Neill," said Watertown mayor and Hoffman supporter Jeff Graham. "She brokered the deal to get [Scozzafava] out and then made her into a victim--got all her endorsements and labor stuff. It probably made the difference in the end."

       At first glance, the county-by-county election returns seem to support Graham's take. John McCain won Jefferson county in 2008 despite losing the entire congressional district by 5 points, but Hoffman lost the county--represented by Scozzafava in the state assembly--49 percent to 46 percent. According to the Cook Political Report's David Wasserman, Hoffman's performance in this county and another represented by Scozzafava "demonstrated that Dede Scozzafava's base of supporters turned to Owens in sizeable numbers."

      Still, Hoffman might have won if he had boned up on local issues. Graham accused the local newspaper, the Watertown Daily Times of embarking “on a crusade against Hoffman late in the race."

     The truth is though that Hoffman went into his endorsement meeting with the editorial board meeting of the Daily Times ignorant of some of the most important local “bread and butter” issues in the area, from the environmental and economic impact on widening the St. Lawrence Seaway and the debate over closing Fort Drum, the local Army base--just to name a few.

       As the Watertown Daily Times explained it in their editorial, "When asked about the rooftop highway that could connect Watertown to Plattsburgh, Mr. Hoffman said he was 'open to reviewing and studying it'. When asked about winter navigation on the St. Lawrence Seaway, he took no position. When asked about widening and deeping the Seaway, he again said nothing. The atmosphere was tense, at times."

       "Mr. Hoffman said at one point that if we were going to question him, that he needed to know in advance what we were going to ask him about. That's not the way it works. Mr. Hoffman would likely find that out if he kept his commitment to the Clifton-Fine Development Corp.'s 'meet-the-candidates' night tonight in Wanakena, instead of ditching them for an appearance on Glenn Beck's television show."

       "Constituents ask questions about subjects that impact their lives, just as our publisher asked questions that he believes are in the best interests of our readers."

         "Dick Armey, the former House majority leader, watched as the back-and-forth unfolded. And then he offered an argument that we'll know is right or wrong on Nov. 3. The former Texas congressman said that Mr. Johnson had the right to base his endorsement on parochial issues, not national ones. But Mr. Armey said this race was going to be won or lost on national issues - taxes and the economy to name two - instead of issues of only local importance."

         "Hoffman seems to be opening himself to charges that he's not concerned about local issues or getting to know his district. And in a House race, that could be a problem."

        On November 3, 2009, it proved to be just that.  Even without Scozzafava’s machinations amongst her closest supporters, Hoffman should have still won a seat where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than 45,000.    All Hoffman needed was for the GOP electorate outside of Scozzafava's State House district to support his candidacy.  But enough of those Republicans backed Owens, that Hoffman lost what should have been his vote.

        Exit poll after exit poll revealed that voters on Election Day also said they were fed up with the efforts to read national implications into what they saw as a race about local issues and jobs--and that they viewed Owens as basically conservative.

        Self-described Republican Tom Bruno of Watertown said he voted for Bill Owens, the Democrat, because he thought he was better suited to protect Fort Drum, the nearby Army base.

       (It did not help that Hoffman's name was buried, far down the ballot. Watertown's Mayor Graham says that "coming off line D, it became increasingly difficult to get out of the 40s"--i.e. in the forty-percent range. "When you think about it, when you go from nothing--a guy on the street--to 46 on a minor party line is pretty good in a way, but making a statement doesn't really compare to winning."  David Wasserman noted that the factor "probably the most overlooked by Washington, was that scores of competitive local races drove turnout in town after town across the district. The voters who showed up to vote for town council, county sheriff, or highway supervisor weren't the energized base of Hoffman believers that pollsters saw." These voters were much more likely to vote for a major party candidate.)

　    However, the most critical factor for a lot of these Republican crossover voters was the fact Owens, himself, seems pretty middle of the road.    He campaigned as a Blue Dog Democrat, and in a barrage of advertisements pledge to oppose the public option--and fight the deficit spending in Washington.   

        He was acceptable to GOP voters specifically because he rejected the Speaker's contention.   He separated himself so significantly apart from the White House’s policies that many Republicans had no problem crossing party lines, just as normally Jefferson Parish GOP voters did with their support of Mary Landrieu in 2008--providing the Democratic Senator with much of her margin of victory.

          “That is not exactly a ringing endorsement of Obamacare by the voters up there.   Democrats might want to rethink how they view NY-23.” Erick Erickson of the conservate RedState Blog mused.

         Just as the nature of Owens' victory helped convince moderate House Democrats to remain skeptical of the Health Care bill, so it may be having the same effect in the upcoming vote in the Senate--especially with Mary Landrieu.

        Efforts to convince Louisiana's Democratic US Senator to join a filibuster against the current Health care measures have increased in recent weeks.   　

      At an event Wednesday in North Louisiana sponsored by the US Chamber's Campaign for Responsible Health Care Reform, David Huguenel noted the "number of African-Americans who signed the letter" which asked the Senator to vote against cloture.  The letter not only opposes the public option, but cuts to Medicare and the so-called "Cadillac Tax" in the Baucus bill.    

       "At least 50% of the people in Shreveport [the most recent campaign rally against the Health Care bill] were Black, and they opposed the bill.   At lot of the people who signed the letters voted for Landrieu--and Obama.  Many of them were seniors, though, and they worried about the Medicare cuts that would come from the Health Care bill.  A lot of them were on Medicare Advantage, and they did not want to lose that."

      Medicare Advantage uses public dollars to purchase private health care policies and is the fastest growing choice of new Medicare applicants according to the Department of Health and Human Services, having risen to 9% of the overall medicare population in less than a decade.  According to some studies, the number of policyholders in Louisiana is three times that amount.    

　   The US Chamber of Commerce is just one of the business groups pushing Landrieu to oppose her Democratic leadership--or else.   The Owens win which Pelosi and the pundits will point to as a rare victory for President Barack Obama on an otherwise dismal night, is proving to be anything but for the moderates they each attempt to woo on Health Care.    Instead of a “civil war” in the GOP, the moderates seems to be taking Pelosi's comment about NJ and VA, that “all politics is local" (to paraphrase Tip O’Neill) and applying it to their home states.   

Christopher Tidmore hosts Louisiana Roundtable on the radio on WSLA 1560 AM New Orleans & KKAY 1590 AM Baton Rouge from 3-4 PM weekdays, online at www.globalradiokkay.com.  Call in your comments about this article, (504) 482-6344, at that time.

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