Is the recent Rasmussen Poll that has Sen. Mary Landrieu ahead of her opponent by sixteen points accurate?    

According to information on the Rasmussen web site in pertinent part, “Senator Mary Landrieu, once viewed as the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent this election year, has opened a significant lead over Republican challenger John Kennedy in her bid for re-election.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows the Louisiana Democrat attracts 53% of the vote while the Republican hopeful earns just 37% support. A month ago, Landrieu was leading Kennedy by only five percentage points, 49% to 44%.”

On Friday, I raised a question about the differential in the Rasmussen poll and a Zogby poll which the Kennedy camp had been touting a few weeks ago which showed that Kennedy was leading by approximately six points.  That poll was an online opt in poll but it was the first poll that indicated that Kennedy was ahead.  Bayoubuzz questioned Zogby about the accuracy of that poll and ran their defense without comment.

Adding to the controversy, on Friday, I mistakenly said that the Rasmussen poll was commissioned by Landrieu.  That statement was based upon my recollection of what I had read or heard but the information did not come from the Landrieu camp.  After publishing the story, the Landrieu camp called me and said they had nothing to do with the Rasmussen poll and asked if I would correct my mistake.

Later during the day, the Kennedy campaign issued the following email:

“On the eve of Mary Landrieu’s speaking role at the Democratic Convention this Tuesday, a prominent pro-Landrieu Web site today reported her highly touted push poll from Rasmussen was “commissioned” by Landrieu herself! Louisiana’s own BayouBuzz this morning wrote the “poll commissioned by Mary Landrieu showed her with a sixteen point lead over John Kennedy.” 

Click here to read the post:

“Two polls for U.S. Senate in an approximate two week spread have shown an amazing change.  This is assuming one accepts the results of either the Zogby poll or the Rasmussen polls.  Zogby which was an opt-in online poll showed Kennedy with a lead for the first time within the margin of error, but still a lead.  A few weeks later, a poll commissioned by Mary Landrieu showed her with a sixteen point lead over John Kennedy.  That would mean an approximate twenty-two point differential within a matter of a few short weeks. “  (Itallics were placed on a column by Bayoubuzz on Friday for demarcation purposes)

I took issue with the Kennedy camp’s characterization that Bayoubuzz is a “pro-anybody website” as it relates to candidates for office.  I felt they were attempting to link my erroneous statement to bolster their own position in what appears to be an attempt to undermine the Rasmussen poll and even trying to give the undermining more credibility by saying that the information came from Bayoubuzz, and in their own words (not ours) “a pro-Landrieu site”.

However, I do thank the campaign for using the word “prominent”.  For more detailed information in defending Bayoubuzz’s objectivity and on this issue, click here.

On Friday, I also promised that I would be obtaining information from Rasmussen about payment for the poll. 

Today, I called Rasmussen and talked to Mike Boniello.  I asked him who paid for the poll.  He told me that nobody paid for the poll.  He said that they do the polls for their own content for their web site.  They accept advertising.  I specifically asked if any campaign, or the Landrieu campaign or anyone associated with the campaign paid for the poll and he said that all of their polls are done for content purposes and are not commissioned or paid by anyone.  I might note that Zogby site also receives advertising.

Bayoubuzz has no opinion on the accuracy of the Zogby or the Rasmussen polls.  We have raised the issue on the differential between the two polls and queried why there would be such a discrepancy over such a short period of time.  The Bayoubuzz readers are free to draw whatever conclusions they want about the polls.

In close, I believe we will see shifts in the polls as we get closer to the election.   For those who support Landrieu, they should be pleased with the Rasmussen poll.  For those who support Kennedy, I assume they will stick by the Zogby poll for now.

Again, polling is merely a snapshot in time.  Many factors can cause polls to shift and sometimes dramatically.  Candidates like to promote polls in their favor to show their strength and to help them raise money.  I assume we will see more polls as Election Day nears, but the ultimate determinative is the voting booth on Election Day.

Is Obama legally qualified to be President?

According one Democrat, who appears to be a Clinton supporter, Obama lacks the legal qualifications to be President and has filed a lawsuit questioning the citizenship of the Democratic nominee.  The plaintiff is asking for injunctive relief.  The lawsuit comes right before the Democratic convention.  According to one supporter of the legal action, it is better to get the information out in the open now before a Republican October surprise.  Out of confusion and some suspicion about the facts alleged, I have raised questions about why national media has not picked up the story.  However, I am also mindful of the Edwards media debacle a few weeks ago.

The supporter has said that the information is on a website www.obamacrimes.com       I also note that it has been reported that Clinton is releasing her delegates pledged to her.  A conservative publication which has followed the story has questioned the allegations.  

Still, I wonder why the national media has not run with the story.  I also look forward to the legal determinations resulting from the lawsuit.