Regardless of the two added (and initially unexpected) votes of New Orleans' Joseph Cao and the newly elected Congressman from New York's Twenty-Third Congressional District, Bill Owens, the Democratic House Health Care bill would have passed on Saturday, November 7, 2009, but the support of both men provided Speaker Pelosi and President Obama with a legitimacy that would not have come from an otherwise razor thin, partisan majority of 218 votes.

         The fact that the bill would have garnered enough votes despite his "yea" was a point that senior Republicans, defending Cao, made to irate conservative activists screaming "betrayal" and that his vote "provided Obama with the cloak of bipartisanship".  Meanwhile, Democratic aspirants for the Louisiana's Second Congressional District in 2010 argued to left-wing voters in the Crescent City impressed by Cao's willingness to buck his own party leadership meant little since the New Orleans Republican only cast his "yea" after the House board hit 218--too late to make any difference.   

         Native New Orleanian-turned editor of the right-wing American Spectator Quin Hillyer told conservatives to "stop, take a breath", actually agreed with those Democrats, arguing that Cao would not have cast the deciding vote.   He would have joined his party in opposition if it came down to him.   

         Cao himself has offered no such defense to his fellow Republicans.  Quite the opposite.  In the days up to the vote, the Congressman repeatedly argued that his only major problem with the bill was vague language on the issue of funding abortion.  In an interview with The Louisiana Weekly and Bayoubuzz more than a month ago, he was blunt, "I cannot vote for any measure that does not clearly deal with abortion."    

         When asked about the public option, though, Cao merely replied that he was undecided and that he had no moral opposition to the concept.  That did not stop House Republican Minority Whip Eric Cantor of Ohio from declaring on the Capitol steps that "no Republican will vote for this bill".  Cao was standing next to him at the time, and said nothing.  

         Likewise, the Congress' only Vietnamese-American Representative refused to tip his hand to Cantor even as the votes were being cast the following Saturday night on the House floor.  Cantor repeatedly tried talking to Cao, gauging his intentions, but to no avail--at least until the counter hit 218, the Democrats cheered, and Cao cast his "yea".    

          Cao himself said he came to his final decision out of a desire to fulfill the wishes of his constituents--but only after incorporation of a highly controversial “pro-life” amendment from Bart Stupak, a Democrat from Michigan, designed to prevent subsidized plans purchased in the proposed new insurance exchange from covering abortions except in cases of rape, incest or a threat to the mother’s life. 

      Cao's "yea" was not the only vote that would have surprised political prognosticators only a week before.   House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had trumpeted the Democratic victory on Tuesday, Nov. 3rd, in Upstate New York as a sign that Health Care Reform and the current trend of Pres. Obama's agenda enjoyed wide centrist support.  Otherwise, she mused, why would swing moderates and Republican voters have crossed the aisle to vote for Democrat Bill Owens over Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman after the Republican, Dede Scozzafava, dropped out?

       Pelosi said that GOP victories in the New Jersey and Virginia Governor's races were based on "local issues" and had no bearing on her and the Administration full-throated effort to pass Health Care reform.   Every moderate Democrat needed to be on board, and Owens' victory was proof that they would suffer no voter negativity if they did so.

       The problem was that the centrist Democrats in the Congress were not buying it. Louisiana Third District Congressman Charlie Melancon joined 39 other "Blue Dog" Democrats in voting against the House leadership on any health care bill due to the public option.  Melancon, running for the US Senate against Republican David Vitter, needed to quantify his centrist credentials, and running away from the Health Care proposal when according to the latest polls almost 60% of Louisianians oppose the measure, seemed like a good move.  One additional justification, though, was the nature of Bill Owens' victory.  

       Melancon, and many other Democratic moderates in the House, read the November 3rd election results quite differently than Pelosi.   The loss of the Governorship and legislative seats in New Jersey matched with the complete GOP victory at all levels in Virginia raised a few amongst Red State centrists.  Rep. Jim Cooper of Tennessee, a leader of the moderate-conservative "Blue Dogs," called the election result "a wake-up call for Congress. A tidal wave could be coming."

        Democratic pollster Peter Hart, in a memo to his clients, warned of the possible consequences of "the disappointment and disgust the American public feels toward Washington. It is as strongly negative as the period of 1979-80 and 1973-74." Both those cycles saw wholesale changes in Congress, the Democrats benefiting in the latter and the Republicans in the former.

        Unlike Pelosi, many of the Blue Dogs and their supporters on Capitol Hill saw the last minute surprise victory of Owens in NY-23 as the quintessential example of an election where local concerns-- and local constituencies--matter more than national trends.  And, more importantly, where the Democratic candidate won by specifically declaring throughout most of the race that he would "vote against the public option" in all of its forms--and take a skeptical view of the Obama administration.

       In other words, Owens won as a "Blue Dog" who promised NOT to be an automatic vote for the leadership of his party, and for Melancon--and even Mary Landrieu--he is the exception that proved the rule of their skepticism.   

      In New York's 23rd District, despite all of the attention on Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman’s social views versus Republican Dede Scozzafava’s moderatism, swing local voters cared more about widening of the St. Lawrence Seaway and the local Army base closing than the a Tea Party/Establishment Civil War in the GOP.

      Not that disaffected moderates lacked an impact in the race's outcome. Hoffman 3,176 vote loss to Owens was exceeded by the 6,903 votes that Scozzafava earned.  Her name remained on the ballot, even after she had dropped out of the race and endorsed the Democrat.  

      "The one you've got to credit with this win for Owens is [New York Democratic Party executive director] June O'Neill," said Watertown mayor and Hoffman supporter Jeff Graham. "She brokered the deal to get [Scozzafava] out and then made her into a victim--got all her endorsements and labor stuff. It probably made the difference in the end."

       At first glance, the county-by-county election returns seem to support Graham's take. John McCain won Jefferson county in 2008 despite losing the entire congressional district by 5 points, but Hoffman lost the county--represented by Scozzafava in the state assembly--49 percent to 46 percent. According to the Cook Political Report's David Wasserman, Hoffman's performance in this county and another represented by Scozzafava "demonstrated that Dede Scozzafava's base of supporters turned to Owens in sizable numbers."

      Still, Hoffman might have won if he had boned up on local issues. Graham accused the local newspaper, the Watertown Daily Times of embarking “on a crusade against Hoffman late in the race."

     The truth is though that Hoffman went into his endorsement meeting with the editorial board meeting of the Daily Times ignorant of some of the most important local “bread and butter” issues in the area, from the environmental and economic impact on widening the St. Lawrence Seaway and the debate over closing Fort Drum, the local Army base--just to name a few.

       As the Watertown Daily Times explained it in their editorial, "When asked about the rooftop highway that could connect Watertown to Plattsburgh, Mr. Hoffman said he was 'open to reviewing and studying it'. When asked about winter navigation on the St. Lawrence Seaway, he took no position.. When asked about widening and deeping the Seaway, he again said nothing. The atmosphere was tense, at times."

       "Mr. Hoffman said at one point that if we were going to question him, that he needed to know in advance what we were going to ask him about. That's not the way it works. Mr. Hoffman would likely find that out if he kept his commitment to the Clifton-Fine Development Corp.'s 'meet-the-candidates' night tonight in Wanakena, instead of ditching them for an appearance on Glenn Beck's television show."

       "Constituents ask questions about subjects that impact their lives, just as our publisher asked questions that he believes are in the best interests of our readers."

         "Dick Armey, the former House majority leader, watched as the back-and-forth unfolded. And then he offered an argument that we'll know is right or wrong on Nov. 3. The former Texas congressman said that Mr. Johnson had the right to base his endorsement on parochial issues, not national ones. But Mr. Armey said this race was going to be won or lost on national issues - taxes and the economy to name two - instead of issues of only local importance."

         "Hoffman seems to be opening himself to charges that he's not concerned about local issues or getting to know his district. And in a House race, that could be a problem."

        On November 3, 2009, it proved to be just that.  Even without Scozzafava’s machinations amongst her closest supporters, Hoffman should have still won a seat where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than 45,000.    All Hoffman needed was for the GOP electorate outside of Scozzafava's State House district to support his candidacy.  But enough of those Republicans backed Owens, that Hoffman lost what should have been his vote.

        Exit poll after exit poll revealed that voters on Election Day also said they were fed up with the efforts to read national implications into what they saw as a race about local issues and jobs--and that they viewed Owens as basically conservative.

        Self-described Republican Tom Bruno of Watertown said he voted for Bill Owens, the Democrat, because he thought he was better suited to protect Fort Drum, the nearby Army base.

       (It did not help that Hoffman's name was buried, far down the ballot. Watertown's Mayor Graham says that "coming off line D, it became increasingly difficult to get out of the 40s"--i.e. in the forty-percent range. "When you think about it, when you go from nothing--a guy on the street--to 46 on a minor party line is pretty good in a way, but making a statement doesn't really compare to winning."  David Wasserman noted that the factor "probably the most overlooked by Washington, was that scores of competitive local races drove turnout in town after town across the district. The voters who showed up to vote for town council, county sheriff, or highway supervisor weren't the energized base of Hoffman believers that pollsters saw." These voters were much more likely to vote for a major party candidate.)

　    However, the most critical factor for a lot of these Republican crossover voters was the fact Owens, himself, seems pretty middle of the road.    He campaigned as a Blue Dog Democrat, and, to nearly the end of the campaign, pledged to oppose the public option--and fight the deficit spending in Washington.  (A position he promptly reversed as election day came and in the week after.) 

        At least until the first week of November, he was acceptable to GOP voters specifically because he seemingly rejected the Speaker's contention.   He separated himself so significantly apart from the White House’s policies that many Republicans had no problem crossing party lines, just as normally Jefferson Parish GOP voters did with their support of Mary Landrieu in 2008--providing the Democratic Senator with much of her margin of victory.

          “That is not exactly a ringing endorsement of Obamacare by the voters up there.   Democrats might want to rethink how they view NY-23.” Erick Erickson of the conservative RedState Blog mused prior to Owens' embrace of the public option the week of the election and his vote the Saturday after.

         Just as the nature of Owens' victory helped convince moderate House Democrats to remain skeptical of the Health Care bill, so it may be having the same effect in the upcoming vote in the Senate--especially with Mary Landrieu.

        Efforts to convince Louisiana's Democratic US Senator to join a filibuster against the current Health care measures have increased in recent weeks.   　

       At an event on Wednesday, November 4, 2009, in North Louisiana sponsored by the US Chamber's Campaign for Responsible Health Care Reform, David Huguenel noted the "number of African-Americans who signed the letter" which asked the Senator to vote against cloture.  The letter not only opposes the public option, but cuts to Medicare and the so-called "Cadillac Tax" in the Baucus bill.    

       "At least 50% of the people in Shreveport [the most recent campaign rally against the Health Care bill] were Black, and they opposed the bill.   At lot of the people who signed the letters voted for Landrieu--and Obama.  Many of them were seniors, though, and they worried about the Medicare cuts that would come from the Health Care bill.  A lot of them were on Medicare Advantage, and they did not want to lose that."

      Medicare Advantage uses public dollars to purchase private health care policies and is the fastest growing choice of new Medicare applicants according to the Department of Health and Human Services, having risen to 9% of the overall medicare population in less than a decade.  According to some studies, the number of policyholders in Louisiana is three times that amount..    

　   The US Chamber of Commerce is just one of the business groups pushing Landrieu to oppose her Democratic leadership--or else.   The Owens win which Pelosi and the pundits point to as a rare victory for President Barack Obama on an otherwise dismal night, is proving to be anything but for the moderates they each attempt to woo on Health Care.    Instead of a “civil war” in the GOP, the moderates seem to be taking Pelosi's comment about NJ and VA, that “all politics is local" (to paraphrase Tip O’Neill) and applying it to their home states.   

       Yet, it is that local focus which, perhaps, Joseph Cao found so alluring as well.  When he said that the constituents of his district wanted the public option, he was not kidding.  The Cook Political Report rates the 2nd District as D+25, meaning that any incumbent Republican is at least at a 25 percentage point disadvantage.   It is not a moderate, but a liberal seat.

        The New Orleans and West Bank Jefferson seat is one in which Barack Obama remains well over 75% in public approval ratings (perhaps even higher)..  It is a Congressional district where, usually, a Republican--or even a white Democratic contender--need not apply.  For a Republican in a seat with a 60% African-American majority to win would be an impossible feat in any normal sort of election year.        

         "It is important to remember," political consultant Mike Bayham told the Weekly, "that in 2008, 46% of electorate of the Second District voted for a man that they knew was a crook."  That Cao would only earn a plurality--and not even a majority--a December low-turnout election against an incumbent so deeply unpopular that he was stripped of his committee assignments by Nancy Pelosi shows the difficulty the Republican Congressman would have in winning re-election at any other time.

         In a head to head race, all a Democratic challenger would have to do is convince the voters that Cao ideologically disagreed with them one too many times.  And within minutes of the House vote on the night of Saturday, Nov. 7, that is exactly what Cedric Richmond tried to do.  

       As soon as Cao voted for the President's and Speaker's Health Care legislation, Richmond sent a press release stating, "I am deeply disappointed in Congressman Cao’s votes to block this historic bill to reform our nation’s healthcare system.  In this Congressional District, the bill would close the prescription drug hole for 5,600 seniors; provide tax credits to help reduce insurance costs for 11,100 small businesses and provide coverage for 63,000 residents."

         "Though he voted for final passage of the bill, after the bill had already received the two hundred and eighteen votes to secure a majority, Congressman Cao first made back-to-back votes against the bill.  He voted for the draconian Republican 'healthcare' bill which would not even prevent insurance companies from denying people coverage because of preexisting conditions, and he then voted for the Republican backed motion to recommit."  

           The conservative National Review Magazine made light of Richmond's attack asking "what was the problem...Did Cao not push the button [voting for the bill] hard enough?"

            Richmond, the frontrunner for the 2010 Democratic nomination in the 2nd District, essentially said "yes", maintaining, "Congressman Cao’s actions today, had he had his way, would deny his constituents affordable healthcare."   So far, the convoluted logic has not had the affect on liberal activists that Richmond hoped.   

            Following the vote, Cao instantly because the favored Republican on liberal blogs like DailyKos.com and Huffingtonpost.com.   He was lionized by the very voters that Richmond worries he might lose to Cao in a head to head contest--white liberal Democrats.

           Without Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, African-American turnout even in the Second District could be below 50%.  That means, in theory, a coalition of white Democrats, independents, and Republicans in theory could carry the vote for Cao.   

           Caucasians who backed Obama could switch to Cao, in other words, thus turning a what should be an easy win for a Democratic nominee like Richmond into a hard fought contest.   

           Bayham, who worked on Cao's winning bid last year, said, however, that another victory, even after the Health Care vote is unlikely..  One a scale of one to ten, Cao went from "a two to a three" in his chances of winning.   

           Nor does Bayham see the trump card of which some Republicans hope as likely.   There has been an undercurrent belief in local GOP circles that an ambitious African-American candidate will run as an Independent in 2010, dividing the Black and Democratic electorate in this "first past the post" style Federal election.  

          (Louisiana law was changed in federal races nearly four years ago, requiring closed party primaries, and all candidates to run together in a general election.  Whomever receives the most votes, though not necessarily a majority wins.)

           Under that scenario, even if 65% of electorate votes for another candidate, Cao could build a coalition of moderate and conservative Democrats and Republicans to still win.   Bayham contended, though, that the chances that a strong Black politician would actually run as an Independent in 2010 were in reality quite small.

           "Unlike the Sixth Congressional District race last year, where a Black Democrat [State Rep. Michael Jackson] ran as an Independent dividing the vote away from the incumbent Democrat Don Cayazoux and electing a Republican [Dr. Bill Cassidy], this time there is a Democrat in the White House.  There is no way that Barack Obama is going to let the Democrats divide the vote and elect a Republican in a seat he needs.  All this talk of Independents are Democrats jockeying for position and seeing what they can negotiate for themselves."

           Still, at least one source tells The Louisiana Weekly, on the promise of confidentiality, that he is "seriously looking at a run".  The individual in question carries extensive support amongst both the local political establishment and the African-American clergy.

           Regardless, though, Cao may face a problem even if the vote ends up divided.   He won in large part last time due to a minority of very motivated Republicans turning out in overwhelming force to the polls.   In the last week, local Republicans have canceled two fundraisers for Cao, and several 2nd District GOP activists have told the Weekly that they "could not support Joseph again".  

          Voting for the Health Care Bill, even after Pelosi corralled her majority, was "a step too far."   GOP enthusiasm is definitely diminished.  If these Republicans stay home on election day, Cao's even narrow chances become remote. 

          That possibility, at least, Bayham explained probably will not come to pass.  "I doubt Republicans are going to choose a Democrat that always opposes their values over a Republican that is with them most of the time." 

Christopher Tidmore hosts Louisiana Roundtable on the radio on WSLA 1560 AM New Orleans & KKAY 1590 AM Baton Rouge from 3-4 PM weekdays, online at www.globalradiokkay.com.  Call in your comments about this article, (504) 482-6344, at that time.