A new poll released today is good news for Congressman Bill Jefferson. It shows the tainted incumbent running first in the 2nd Congressional District race. He has 18% of the vote, followed by Helena Moreno at 16% of the vote. In a distant third place is Troy Carter at 9%.
Pulling up the rear in the poll are the other candidates: Bryon Lee, James Carter, Cedric Richmond and Kenya Smith. The poll was conducted by a respected survey organization Multi-Quest International of Metairie. It was commissioned by Louisiana Governmental Studies, Inc. an independent bipartisan organization.
Despite his indictments and upcoming trial, Jefferson is still popular with a segment of this congressional district. Jefferson has had a very difficult time raising funds for this election cycle. He has been distracted by his legal troubles and has been political radioactive for many donors. Yet, being a well known incumbent, Jefferson does not need to spend as much money as the other candidates.
The election delay has actually helped Jefferson by giving him an opportunity to “deliver” results for his district. If Jefferson can be seen helping storm victims or facilitating government assistance, it will win him support in this race.
The poll is also good news for Helena Moreno, who is the only non-African American candidate in the race. Most political observers believe that Moreno is the only candidate in the race that Jefferson can defeat in the run-off. Yet, Moreno advisors strongly feel that she can beat Jefferson in a run-off. The question in the run-off will be what will the anti-Jefferson African American voters do? Will they vote for Jefferson or cast a vote for a non-African American candidate?
The poll results are a wake-up call for the other candidates in the race who need to make up ground before the October primary election. They need to gain traction in a time when people are distracted by hurricanes and fundraising events have been canceled.
In summary, the poll shows that there is at least a reasonable chance that Bill Jefferson will be the newly re-elected Congressman for the Second District when he starts his trial for bribery charges in December.
Jeff Crouere is the Host of “Ringside Politics,” which airs at 7:30 p.m. Fri. and 10:00 p.m. Sun. on WLAE-TV 32, a PBS station, and 7 till 11 a.m. weekdays on WGSO 990 AM in New Orleans and the Northshore. He is the Political Analyst for WGNO-TV ABC26 and the Political Editor for NewOrleans.com. For more information, visit his web site at RingsidePolitics.com. E-mail him at jeff@ringsidepolitics.com.
CL, if race wasn't an issue, then your analysis would be pretty strong - ANY challenger should be able to beat an incumbent who couldn't get 20% of the vote in the first primary. But since race IS a factor, the fear is that those blacks who so strongly favor black candidates will jump over to Jeff. Gobrado proves the likelihood of this by saying even a white (or is it WHITE?) would still vote for Jeff over Moreno. Are we so desensitized to corruption that inexperience is more dangerous than rampant family corruption? Also, I agree with GOBRADUNO that conservative whites contributed to Nagin's re-election, but remember two important differences. First, Nagin was not believed to be a crook, he just had a big mouth and he didn't appear to be very effective. I, for one, naively hoped that in a second term, he would stop focusing on campaigning (and his incessant pandering to his black base) and step up and get something done. To me, he was still a "businessman" versus a politician (from a dynasty of same.) My bad. The other big difference is that there were some extremely promising movers and shakers like Ron Forman and Rob Couhig in that race. A few anti-Landrieu whites could not have kept Nagin in office if the remaining blacks hadn't rallied around him even with such proven leadership waiting in the wings. There doesn't appear to be any such proven candidates in this race. It will go down as the second most tragic political occurrence after Katrina that New Orleans missed a chance to have either of those two guys as Mayor. The first (and worst) tragic political occurrence was the election of Blanco over Jindal. My mind boggles at how much better things could have been if the political wall had not existed between our state and the Republican administration. Much less how much better organized Jindal could have been to respond to the calamity. Not to say it's fair to compare this recent evacuation to the first under Blanco. I just think he would've done a MUCH better job back then. I even think Blanco would have done a better job if she had followed her own instincts instead of listening to her political hack of a husband. Written by Still voting single issue....
on 9/11/2008
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Well this white voter has several black friends, usually votes Republican but not all the time, however I do try to not vote for those who have been proven to take our tax money and use it to fatten their or their supporters bank accounts. Skin color, gender or political affiliation has nothing to do with it. Of course, if I were someone who does not pay taxes......I guess then any crook who gives me a cut of what the crooked politician fleeces from the tax payers would be acceptable. Written by kpf
on 9/11/2008
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The poll doesn't actually underscore which part of the electorate actually still supports William Jefferson. It is not broken down by race -- so we cannot assume that Black voters overwhelmingly support Jefferson. It is also important to remind everyone that it was WHITE revulsion of a New Orleans'-based candidate two years ago that played a significant role in getting Jefferson re-elected. Likewise it was WHITE revulsion against an arguably more liberal/progressive Mitch Landrieu that saw to C. Ray Nagin's re-election as New Orleans' mayor. Even with Jefferson's known negatives, against the unknown Moreno this WHITE voter would not hesitate in supporting William Jefferson for another Congressional term. Written by gobraduno
on 9/10/2008
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C'mon, Jeff, you're a better analyst than that. An incumbent with only 18% in a poll cannot possibly win. That figure means there are 82% who do not want him, most of whom will coalesce around whoever is in the runoff against him (if he even makes the runoff). For unfortunate, but obvious, reasons, Moreno would seem the least likely to beat him, but the widespread disgust with Mr. Jefferson throughout most of the African American community would make even her election fairly probable if she is able to get into the runoff. Written by CL
on 9/10/2008
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It's really pathetic that so many voters (mostly black, the polls say) can still support a guy caught red-handed with bribery money (just like Cleo Fields) when there are other qualified candidates in the race, not to mention black ones. To make matters worse, if it ends up that the runoff is Jefferson against the only white candidate and the blacks who are now supporting the other black candidates shift their votes to Jefferson (which history tells us will happen - re: C. Ray Nagin and Jeff's last elections), then the blacks in our city deserve the shoddy governance they get...but everyone else gets stuck with it, as well. Whether there's a black or a white in the office doesn't concern me, but please, if you want a black representative, then don't put Jefferson in the runoff in the first place! We all need to vote responsibly. The worst case of this behavior was when I had to hold my nose to vote for Edwards (as bad or worse than Bill Jefferson) because the white equivalent of Jefferson supporters put David Duke in the runoff while the Dems and blacks did the same to get a crooked Edwards in the runoff. Roamer wasn't the best Governor, but he was okay and he wasn't a crook or a racist. Please don't repeat this by putting Jefferson in the runoff when there are qualified challengers who deserve a chance to clean up our states reputation. If he does make the runoff, have the courage to give the other candidate a chance to clean it up, whether they're white or black. Written by Still voting single-issue....
on 9/10/2008
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Why do we bother having elections. Dollar Bill is an obvious favorite of the majority and is a proven crooked politician. Now... if we could only get his brother and sister elected for some high office before they go to warm up the jail for him. . . . . . Written by Noladude
on 9/10/2008
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A new poll released today is good news for Congressman Bill Jefferson. It shows the tainted incumbent running first in the 2nd Congressional District race. He has 18% of the vote, followed by Helena Moreno at 16% of the vote. In a distant third place is Troy Carter at 9%. 
