This will be the hardest week for Hillary Clinton’s campaign as the Obama team, with great assistance from the Fourth Estate, will try to parlay momentum from Tuesday’s tactical victory in North Carolina and strategic victory in Indiana into a super-delegate stampede towards the “O” banner.
But if she can survive this week, then she'll make it at least to the end of the month.
While Hillary puts on a brave face for television, her other half is acting very much like a battlefield sergeant scurrying from place to place in a desperate attempt to hold the line of super-delegates thus buying more time for herbarely camouflaged “black man can’t win” argument to take root.
As the assembled punditry points out on a daily basis, the math favors Obama.Assuming the magic number of 2,025 remains the same (and that is a considerable assumption), the Illinois mesmerizer of the masses has 1,850 delegates, a mere 175 short of the nomination.Clinton trails Obama by 154 with six formal contests to go…and 262 super-delegates still biding their time.
Technically, the super-delegates could put this one on ice tomorrow by declaring their allegiance to the former Barry Obama by a 3 to 5 margin.But that’s not going to happen for good reason, as visions of romps in the Lincoln Bedroom are doubtlessly dancing through the heads of the undecideds.
And before my Democrat friends and readers think I am taking a shot at the Clinton tandem’s use of the executive mansion for wantonly political purposes, I will concede they were hardly the first.
Jerry Ford made great use of his office and the White House to nail down undecided delegates in the nomination fight with Ronald Reagan (see Jules Witcover’s Marathon for more on this).
The six contests left are: West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota.It should be noted that the first three will be held BEFORE May 31st, more on why that is significant later.
Doing my best guesstimations employing previous primaries serving as a guide (in other words, I am profiling), I will go out on a limb and project Hillary will pick up a net 15 delegates, assuming she takes the fight at least to the calendar finale.
Under that scenario, Obama will tread about 75 delegates, give or take, below the magic number.
Now this is a crucial point as it plays into Clinton’s delayed action argument that based off the primaries and caucuses alone, Obama cannot win the nomination either so there is no harm in letting the process play out.
If she survives this week, Hillary’s “Bingo Hall” strategy of showcasing her monopoly of the white, senior citizens demographic will doubtlessly receive a boost in West Virginia and then salvaging a split-decision the following week, with Clinton winning Kentucky while Obama swamps the latte-liberal bastion of Oregon.
Fully aware of what lurks beyond Oregon, it will on that evening when Obama attempts to plant his flag and claim the nomination.
However, a primary election will not mark the turning point in the Democratic nomination affair but the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting in Washington, DC on ay 31st where the fate of Florida and Michigan’s delegation and for all practical purposes the party’s nomination will be decided.
How can Michigan and Florida be kept out of the nomination process?On the other hand, how can a committee change the rules of the contest at the two-minute warning mark of the fourth quarter?
The fair thing, in my objective opinion, is to maintain the status quo.Obama’s team naively honored the established rules, not conducting campaigns in either state in question, thus allowing the opportunistic Clinton to roll up heavy landslides.And if Michigan and Florida are to be seated in some capacity, how should the delegates be apportioned?
In this matter, disenfranchisement cuts both ways, for those who participated in those primaries and for those who did not because those voters were told the unsanctioned primaries had no meaning.
At this point, the Clintons would settle for an impractical mulligan or anything else that would put additional time on the clock to give delegates, committed and otherwise, the full “Johnson treatment”.
It will be at this seemingly innocuous meeting of party committee people where Chairman Howard Dean’s draconian maneuver punishing the leap-froggers will be sustained or it will be where history will record the biggest vote steal since 1960.
If the latter happens, the road leading to the PepsiCenter in Denver will become a veritable Broadway of street theatre the likes of which have not been seen since Chicago 1968.
Hey Written by on 5/10/2008..................... Interesting comment you made there..."Talk about backlash if Obama is the nominee!"............. Are you sure you didn't intend to say 'whiplash' or 'blaklash"?? It has nothing to do with race, or the racecard, or anything of the sorts. What it does have to do though is with the ignorance of the American public in general that 'window shops' for the next President based on it being a female, or black, or what ever.... Those days are over, and that is so 60's. What was good then, isn't working right now.... And I don't care [hint hint] if you spell it forward or backwards, it is still the same, merely an out of control.................... Written by .................RACECAR..........................
on 5/12/2008
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The Clintons care for us and truly feel our pain. If Hillary is elected everything will be better, even the sound of the birds singing will be sweeter. Oh happy day! Written by Clueless, but I can spell my name
on 5/12/2008
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If you think Clinton supporters will rally around Obama, you don't understand the premise for their support for Hillary. Talk about backlash if Obama is the nominee! She has clearly shown she is the most prepared for the Presidency, not Barack. Clinton supporters will not vote for Barack because they love America. We can't get the image out of our mind of a parent sitting in church with their young children letting them listen to the "hate America and whites" that spewed forth from Wright's mouth. That just intensified when Wright went on his speech rampage. Barack can not explain that to anyone's satisfaction, unless you refuse to take your filters off. He lied, period. All his fumbling and backtracking can't erase that. He doesn't meet the requirements most Americans have for the Presidency. The reason Black voters will rally around HIllary is that they have had a 35 years relationship with the Clintons that they once felt proud of; how can she suddenly be a demon after all that. She isn't and in the depths of black voters hearts they know that she isn't racist and still supports black causes.
Ramona in OHio Written by
on 5/10/2008
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Blah, blah, blah,,,,,,, 'Blarack O'Blah,blah' - "uhhh, aannnnnd, uhhhhhhhhhh", or 'Screaching Hilariously Squint'em' - "You will get health care because I can wave a magic fairy wand and make it happen, SO VOTE FOR ME!!" as Commander in Chief?????? Ha!-ha!-ha!-ha!-ha!!!!!!!! or 'Illusional Image I get credit when the sun comes up because I'm young Piyush' for V.P?????? Ha!-ha!-ha!-ha!-ha!!!!!!!! You poor demented fools......... Gossiping away like a bunch of old women hovering over the washboard in the backyard and not even having a clue what is really important............... What a poor, ignorant, mislead, commercialized mass....... Written by .............HAVE A COKE AND A SMILE..............
on 5/10/2008
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DON'T BE DUPED !!!
Large numbers of Republicans have been voting for Barack Obama in the DEMOCRATIC primaries, and caucuses from early on. Because they feel he would be a weaker opponent against John McCain. With Hillary Clinton you are almost 100% certain to get quality, affordable universal health care very soon.
But first, all of you have to make certain that Hillary Clinton takes the democratic nomination and then the Whitehouse. Americans face an even worse catastrophe ahead than the one you are living through now.
Hillary Clinton has actually won by much larger margins than the vote totals showed. And lost by much smaller vote margins than the vote totals showed. Her delegate count is actually much higher than it shows. And higher than Obama's. She also leads in the electoral college numbers that you must win to become President in the November national election. HILLARY CLINTON IS ALREADY THE TRUE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE!
As much as 30% of Obama's primary, and caucus votes are Republicans trying to choose the weakest democratic candidate for McCain to run against. These Republicans have been gaming the caucuses, and open primaries where it is easier to vote cheat. This is why Obama has not been able to win the BIG! states primaries. Even with Republican vote cheating help. Except North Carolina where 35% of the population is African American, and approximately 90% of them block voted for him. African Americans are only approximately 17% of the general population.
Hillary Clinton has been OUT MANNED! OUT GUNNED! and OUT SPENT! 4 and 5 to 1. Yet Obama has only been able to manage a very tenuous, and questionable tie with Hillary Clinton.
If Obama is the democratic nominee for the national election in November he will be slaughtered. That is crystal clear now. Because all of the Republican vote cheating help will suddenly evaporate. And the demographics, and experience are completely against him. All of this vote fraud and republican manipulation has made Obama falsely look like a much stronger candidate than he really is.
You will have another McGovern catastrophe where George McGovern lost 49 of 50 states. And was the reason the super-delegates were created to keep that from happening again. Don't let that happen to the party and America again super-delegates. You have the power to prevent it. The only important question now is who can best win in November. And the answer is HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON. That fact is also now crystal clear.
And YOUNG PEOPLE. DON'T BE DUPED! Think about it. You have the most to lose. As do African Americans. Support Hillary Clinton. She will do her best for all of you. And she will know how to best get it done on day one.
The democratic party needs to fix this outrage. Everyone needs to throw all your support to Hillary Clinton NOW! So you can end this outrage against YOU the voter, and against democracy.
The democratic party, and the super-delegates have a decision to make. Are the democrats, and the democratic party going to choose the DEMOCRATIC party nominee to fight for the American people. Or are the republicans going to choose the DEMOCRATIC party nominee through vote fraud, and gaming the DEMOCRATIC party primaries, and caucuses.
Fortunately the Clinton's have been able to hold on against this fraudulent outrage with those repeated dramatic, and heroic comebacks of Hillary Clinton’s. Only the Clinton’s are that resourceful, and strong. Hillary Clinton is your NOMINEE. They are the best I have ever seen. Probably the best there has ever been. Maybe it's time for Hillary to start thinking about switching to an INDEPENDENT run for the presidency. Wipe the slate clean. After all she is running to be the President of all the people. Hillary, Bill, and Chelsea would cream everyone. You know it's true. :-)
“This is not a game” (Hillary Clinton)
Sincerely
jacksmith... Working Class :-) Written by jacksmith
on 5/9/2008
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Thanks for that brilliant summary, TW. No need for us to do any more thinking now that you've summarized 21st century American politics for us in a single paragraph. I guess those 6th district precinct tallies that showed 95% democratic vote in black precincts compared to nearly 50/50 in white precincts don't mean anything to you. But the subject of this article is not Republicans, but the nomination battle between Hillary and Obama. Since Obama has tied up the the black vote (for now), Hillary has no choice but to pander to the unions and women. And doing so is forcing these democratic voters to focus on their differences, rather than their common ground. The wounds will heal in the voting booth, but they won't heal in real life for a long time. And the damage will be deeper and more destructive if Hillary does manage to steal the nomination. Black disappointment with the defeat of Obama in the nomination or the election would be unprecedented. But the only disappointment that could exceed that is Bill and Hillary's if she loses. That's why she'll do whatever it takes to win, no matter what it does to democrats or the party. And I don't think democrats take marching orders from Limbaugh regarding riots or anything else, but they do take them from rabble-rousers like James Carville. Written by ralphie
on 5/9/2008
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And Republicans aren't sheep? Give me a break. You read the comments from them here, don't you? Most of them can barely spell their own names, for Christ's sake. They listen to their media masters and convince themselves that they're victims of reverse discrimination. Someone once said that all the GOP cares about these days are three main issues: 1) lowering taxes; 2) torturing Arabs; 3) keeping out Spics. That, and their obsession with limiting abortions and having prayer in schools (those are bones they throw to their lapdogs the Talibaptists - Buffy goes to an exclusive private school anyway, and they'll fly her to Canada for the abortion). That's the GOP for you in a nutshell. TW Written by Tee Dub
on 5/9/2008
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I was being a little sarcastic, there, TW. I'm really not hoping for riots, but I find it ironic that the democrats have focused their pandering so specifically to two different factions of their base that they have created a civil war within their ranks. Blacks will scream (and hopefully not burn and loot) if Hillary steals the nomination, but will still vote for her like the 90% blind sheep that they resemble in every election.
Hillary will rile her union members and women like caged animals to help her cause, but they will vote in lockstep for Obama if he keeps her from stealing it.
But there will be some fireworks, certainly verbal, possibly physical between now and then. But democrats are so good at ignoring their records and the truth, that once the nomination is done (either way), it will be a love fest, all sweetness and light and hope and equality against the darkness of the evil GOP. Written by ralphie
on 5/9/2008
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You can't wait for the riots, ralphie? You mean the ones Rush Limbaugh called for? Are you completely insane, or just a regular run-of-the-mill a**hole? TW Written by Tee Dub
on 5/9/2008
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It's over. It's just a question of when and how Clinton concedes. Written by David Quidd
on 5/9/2008
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Odds are that Clinton will steal the nomination. Some might say she'd wait four more years, but with the Clintons' all-consuming drive for power, four years is an eternity.
The more scary scenario is Hillary for vice president. I'd like to buy an insurance policy on Obama if that happens. His rosiest future would be a Clinton machine clandestinely engineered impeachment to give her the throne, but there are other ways.
Can't wait for the democratic convention riots to begin. Should show the democrats in their brightest light. Written by ralphie
on 5/9/2008
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