Republican presidential candidates John McCain and Mitt Romney are locked in a statistical dead heat as they head into tonight’s GOP primary in Michigan, according to a Zogby poll released yesterday.
Senator McCain of Arizona leads former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney by a razor-thin margin of one point, at 27 to 26 percent – well within the poll’s 3.4 percent margin for error. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is running a distant third with 15 percent support.
Senator McCain and Mr. Romney both hope to leverage off their personal historical ties to the state.
Mr Romney is a Michigan native whose father headed American Motors before serving three terms as the state’s governor.
Senator McCain won the Republican Michigan primary in the year 2000 with the support of local Democrats and independent voters, who are allowed to participate in the open Republican primary.
Tonight’s Democratic primary tonight is not expected to be well attended, after an internal party dispute over the date of the vote resulted in the state losing its delegates to the national convention. Senator Hillary Clinton of New York is the only main Democratic candidate whose name will appear on the ballot.
Senator McCain would be the most likely beneficiary of the Democratic primary debacle, and could again pull off a victory in Michigan with the help of Democratic and independent supporters. This would consolidate his status as the GOP presidential frontrunner and give him considerable momentum heading into the South Carolina and Florida primaries.
On the other hand, a low voter turnout would probably favor Mr Romney, who has an 11 point edge over Senator McCain with staunch Republicans committed to participating in the primary process. It is expected that tonight’s turnout will be lower than that of previous years.
Unlike the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primaries held earlier this month which attracted record voter turnouts, and the forthcoming high-profile contests in other states, there is a feeling among local residents that the Michigan primary does not matter as much in the nomination process for 2008 presidential candidates.
The relatively high proportion of undecided voters has also made tonight’s result difficult to predict. The Zogby poll showed that 47 percent of Senator McCain’s supporters and 55 percent of Mr Romney’s supporters said they might still change their minds before voting, while 8 percent of voters remained completely undecided.
