What a difference eight years makes! Arizona Senator John McCain secured an important victory in the Republican primary in South Carolina on Saturday, edging out former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee by three percentage points (33% to 30%) in a spirited contest. McCain’s victory represents a dramatic reversal of fortune from the 2000 campaign, when his crushing defeat to then-Texas Governor George W. Bush effectively destroyed any realistic hope that he could secure the Republican nomination. In addition,  McCain’s win is made all the more remarkable by the fact that his campaign was given up for dead months ago because of its well-publicized money problems as well as  his controversial stands on the troop surge in Iraq and immigration.  In a state known for its Bible-toting conservative evangelical voters, McCain’s resurrection from near political death continues. This is the same candidate who had been written off by pundits last summer as finished. With this win, Senator McCain must seen as a serious contender for the Republican presidential nomination.

            McCain won in part because he appears to have learned some lessons from his disastrous campaign in South Carolina eight years ago. During that race, he foolishly overemphasized his so-called maverick credentials. He kept attacking the Republican establishment and seemed to be appealing more to Democrats and independents than to members of his own party.  However, McCain’s actual voting record in the Senate - with the exception of some high-profile issues where he has disagreed with the majority of his party -  reveals a man who is deeply conservative. Instead of emphasizing his actual record, McCain touted his “independence.“  As a result, he made it very easy for George W. Bush and Karl Rove to argue that John McCain was not a “real conservative.“ Bush’s strategy worked: while McCain did well among independents and moderate voters in 2000, record numbers of conservatives turned out, voting overwhelmingly for the Texas governor.

            This time, McCain emphasized his conservative credentials. He reminded South Carolinians of his status as a war hero, of his foreign policy experience, and the fact that he had supported the troop surge in Iraq when many analysts dismissed it as a hopeless strategy that had no chance to succeed. These appeals played well in a state with a large number of veterans and military instillations. McCain also trumpeted his fiscal conservatism, promising that he would seriously curtail “pork-barreled “spending if he is elected president.  In doing so, the senator tapped into the deep discontent among rank-and-file conservatives with Republicans in Washington who, despite their advocacy of “smaller government,“ have managed to increase federal spending in recent years at a rate that has surpassed the so-called “tax and spend” liberal Democrats.  He also did not concede the evangelical vote to Huckabee, a former Baptist minister. McCain reminded evangelicals that he had been consistently “pro-life“ during his career.  Though Huckabee still outpolled McCain among self-described evangelical voters, McCain‘s showing among this group was respectable enough to deny the former Arkansas governor the margins he needed to win statewide.

            Governor Huckabee, for his part, failed to broaden his appeal beyond his evangelical base. Just as in New Hampshire and in Michigan, Huckabee did poorly among voters who are not evangelical. While evangelicals turned out in large numbers in Iowa to power him to victory, Governor Huckabee has yet to make inroads into the other wings of the Republican party (i.e., fiscal and economic conservatives and foreign policy conservatives). Moreover, he strategically miscalculated by stereotyping his own evangelical base. Huckabee appeared to think that all he had to do was concentrate primarily on social issues in order to win. Despite popular misconceptions, evangelicals are not only interested in abortion and same sex marriage - they have concerns about the economy, tax policy, immigration, and terrorism just like everybody else. Some evangelicals, for example, who agree with Huckabee on hot-button social issues such as abortion are nevertheless bothered by the fact that he has no foreign policy experience..  Consequently, many of these same people find themselves agreeing with John McCain when he describes the threat of radical Islamic terrorism as the “transcendent challenge of our time.” It also did not help that former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson cut into Huckabee’s vote among evangelicals. Thus, while Thompson finished a distant third in South Carolina, his presence in the race nevertheless seems to have denied Huckabee a much-needed victory in the Palmetto State.

            McCain’s success in South Carolina is bad news for former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who has adopted an unorthodox strategy of skipping the early states to concentrate on delegate-rich Florida. Expecting a win in the Sunshine State, the Giuliani campaign figured on being perfectly positioned for Super Tuesday. But Giuliani’s double-digit lead in Florida polls has evaporated in recent weeks; some of the latest surveys actually have McCain slightly ahead of him. Giuliani needed Huckabee to win South Carolina, less his hard charging rival McCain roll into Florida with momentum from a victory. Now the pressure is on Giuliani: Florida becomes a must-win for him. If he fails to win there considering all of the time and money he has poured into the state (and given his decision to skip the early states), it is difficult to envision how he wins the nomination.

            As for Fred Thompson, South Carolina is the end of the line for him. Thompson needed to win or finish a strong second in order to be a viable candidate. If the so-called Southern “pure conservative” could not win in South Carolina, can he win anywhere? It’s bad when, in Thompson’s case, a candidate barely finishes ahead of an opponent who essentially quit competing in the state (That would be Gov. Mitt Romney.). South Carolina also appears to all but crush any realistic hope for Mike Huckabee’s underfinanced campaign. To be sure, he has vowed to stay in, perhaps banking on the logic that were it not for Fred Thompson, he would have carried South Carolina. There are, after all, some important Southern primaries coming up on Super Tuesday that the Huckabee camp will take a shot at. But given his narrow political base and the lack of resources, it is hard to see how long Huckabee can stay in the race.

            McCain’s path to the nomination, however, still faces serious hurdles. Florida’s January 29 primary is a key test of whether the South Carolina victory has given the Arizona senator that ever-elusive “momentum” that all of the previous primary and caucus winners have been seeking. Expect Giuliani to give him a stiff challenge in Florida. Moreover, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney remains, arguably, the most formidable candidate remaining in McCain’s path to the nomination. Romney bested McCain in Michigan in a head-to-head contest in which the economy was the central issue in the campaign. In addition, the reduction in violence in Iraq in recent months might actually hurt McCain by minimizing his greatest advantage over Romney - his foreign policy experience. Romney’s long career in the private sectors enables him to talk about economic issues more naturally than McCain. The former Massachusetts governor also reminded Michigan voters that McCain voted against the Bush tax cuts in 2001. McCain will certainly have to hone his economic message if he expects to win the nomination.  His status as a war hero and his foreign policy pedigree will not be enough.

            For McCain to be in this position after his campaign nearly went bankrupt last summer is both a testament to the fortitude of a determined candidate and a commentary on the weakness of the Republican presidential field.  A stronger field would have buried McCain - his loss would have been their gain. McCain’s “surge” represents the latest example of how the pundits’ predictions have gone spectacularly awry during this election year. If McCain caps off his modern-day Lazarus imitation by winning the nomination, Democrats in the fall have reason to fear. He is the one Republican who looks unmistakably presidential. McCain has already demonstrated the ability to appeal to independents, whose support will be critical in the general election. If conservatives finally “bury the hatchet” with McCain and give him their blessing, he will be difficult for either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama to beat.

            But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. After all, this election season has already defied expectations. Let’s wait at least until McCain proves he can win two primaries in a row before we anoint him as the Republican frontrunner. Now all eyes in the Republican field turn to Florida.






 

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