Republican Congression Elections At Big Risk

When Republican leaders in Congress now appear before television cameras, they bring new meaning to the term “deer in the headlights.” The 2008 Congressional elections were never expected to be good ones for the GOP. Recent election trends indicate that, instead of merely being bad, the fall elections may be catastrophic for Republicans.

The first shock wave came when the special election to fill the seat of former Republican Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert resulted in a Democrat winning in what had been a safe Republican seat. Earlier this month, the election to fill Rep. Richard Baker’s seat—one that had been in the GOP fold for over 30 years—went to Democratic state representative, Don Cazayoux. The final piece of the Democratic trifecta came on May 13 in the special election in Mississippi to fill the seat of recently retired Republican Congressman Roger Wicker. That conservative district also sent a Democrat to Washington.

Now the alarm bells are ringing loudly in Republican caucus rooms on Capitol Hill. The Democrats are approaching a 40-seat advantage in the House. Unless something changes the current election trend, that margin could swell to 55 seats or more. If relatively safe seats like those recently contested in Louisiana and Mississippi can be lost, there may not be many safe seats left for Republicans.

The situation in the Senate isn’t much better. Currently, 51 senators are either Democrats or caucus with them, and 49 seats are held by Republicans. Only 12 Democrats are up for re-election next fall, and only one (Mary Landrieu of Louisiana) is expected to have serious opposition. In contrast, over 20 Republican seats are being contested—several of them without an incumbent running—and many of them will be seriously contested. When all is said and done, the current 51-49 Democratic majority could easily swell to 57-43—or worse.

There are many factors at play in the demise of GOP fortunes, but the wounds are mainly self-inflicted. Numerous scandals have plagued Republican members of Congress—often at high levels—since the 2000 elections. The party of fiscal conservatism and limited government has been anything but in the minds of many voters who subscribe to those views. The proliferation of congressional “earmarks” during the time the GOP controlled Congress offended many conservatives and independents. Even the backlash against the war in Iraq is fueled to some degree over the question of how much it costs and how nothing is being offset in the massive federal budget to pay for it.

It would be nothing short of a miracle at this point if the GOP lost only a handful of seats in the House or only one or two in the Senate. But what will also be interesting—particularly on the House side—is how some of the winners are going to square their campaign promises with reality if the Democrats succeed in building huge majorities in Congress. The recent upsets were won primarily by Democrats who ran pro-gun, pro-choice, “Pelosi-and-Obama-Who?” campaigns. Those self-proclaimed conservatives will join the “Blue Dog” coalition of moderate Democrats who, so far, have found it hard to buck the liberal party leadership on most issues. Democrats who campaign as conservatives but toe the line of the liberal party leadership will enjoy only a brief honeymoon in Congress. They will live the unpleasant experience of being constantly pulled between a leadership they ran away from in their campaigns and districts that bought the claim that they were reasonable conservative alternatives to Republicans who had gone astray.

_____________________________________________
_________________Advertisement________________

______________________________________________