The National Weather Center now has Gustav heading slightly west of New Orleans.  Many observers have felt that the worse case scenario was a west-of-New Orleans impact with the winds going into the city from the Mississippi River.  Much would depend upon how “west” the storm would be and even if it hits Louisiana at all.  However, clearly, based upon the weather map, there has been a shift from yesterday, whether the shift is meaningful with the storm being days away is pure speculation.

From National Weather Service:

000

WTNT32 KNHC 281111

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER  14

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008

730 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS A STRONGER GUSTAV...

AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A

HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF

GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 730 AM EDT...1130Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 80

MILES...130 KM...EAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 170 MILES...270

KM...SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT IS

EXPECTED TO RESUME A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6

MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND

TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS EXPECTED

TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A

HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4

INCHES OVER SOUTHERN CUBA...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER HAITI...

JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF

UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE

LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS

CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE

WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 730 AM EDT POSITION...17.8 N...75.6 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70

MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

Compare  Hurricane Center Five Day Track Points To New Orleans, Louisiana