7:41 am Wednesday September 10

As the storm moves towards the United States, most forcasters appear to feel that the eye will hit in lower Texas.  However, the National Hurricane Center suggests that the storm could impact Western Louisiana as it moves across Texas into the United States.  The impact upon Louisiana issue is more obvious as the five-day-map from the National Hurricane Center appears to  show the storms land-traverse.

Here is the 7 am map and the National Hurricane Center advisory:  Check out the sequence of maps to get a better appreciation of the potential course of the storm as projected by the Hurricane Center.

7 a m cdt

10:am Wed CDT

000
WTNT34 KNHC 101139
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  37A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
800 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

...IKE STILL AFFECTING THE LOWER KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES...230
KM...NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 430 MILES...695 KM
...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...BUT A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. IKE IS STILL PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER
WESTERN CUBA. THESE ARE SOME RECENT OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED THE CUBAN
METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE: CASABLANCA HAVANA A WIND GUST TO 80
MPH...129 KM/HR...PINAR DEL RIO...63 MPH...101 KM/HR AND LA PALMA
62 MPH...100 KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3
FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST AND
WEST COASTS OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THESE SWELLS COULD
GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...23.9 N...85.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


 

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