While there is flooding occurring on the northshore of Lake Pontchartrain in Mandeville Louisiana and throughout southeast Louisiana, according to many TV weather services, Hurricane Ike’s eye appears to be heading to Galveston Texas.  Still, various parts of Louisiana appears at risk with surges, hig winds and rain.  Here is the most recent weather advisory from the National Hurricane Center as 1 pm.  Go to the front page of Bayoubuzz for more information and updates. 

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WTNT34 KNHC 121751

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  46A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008

100 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AS HURRICANE

IKE APPROACHES....

AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS

TEXAS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  A HURRICANE

WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO NORTH OF

PORT ARANSAS.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST

IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO

PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT

FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...

INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST OR ABOUT 165

MILES...270 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 270

MILES...430 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. 

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A

TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN

TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE

CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY

OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL

CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE

VERY SOON.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES INDICATE

THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY

THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE.  STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN

GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS

EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS

957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH A FEW SPOTS TO

NEAR 25 FEET...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS

BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE

CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN

USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE

CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG

MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER

EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED

AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN

LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE

POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND

SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...27.4 N...93.1 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105

MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

400 PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA