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Friday, 12 August 2016 10:19
Might Clinton's, dems' use of analytics trump the GOP, yielding barren win season
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data drought 3No doubt, the Republican Party has dominated Congressional elections since 2010 and it appears it just might not do so again in 2016.  

While their hold on the House still appears to tip the balance, many republicans are  not so confident about a Senate majority.  Also, as has been widely reported, the White House control grows dimmer daily, although there are still three months left before election high-noon. 

Worse, there might be a drought of a type that could lead to once-unanticipated Democratic Party victories, for both this election and upcoming election cycles, if the stream of usable data doesn't start to flow throughout the party fields, making GOP winning opportunities more fertile.

Not that the rivers and the lakes are barren.  No. There is data water everywhere, but not too many drops to drink.

Figuratively speaking, the problem for the national party, at least, according to one of the major advocates of the springwell industry of data projections, the pumps just aren't working as fast or has frequent compared to those belonging to the Democratic Party campaigns--flush, with predictive data scientists.

In part 2 of my Bayoubuzz interview with Chris Wilson (video below), the CEO of the national firm Wilson Perkins and Allen, explained that the data projection advantages spawned from the Barack Obama win in 2008 is worsening for the Republican Party in large part due to the candidacy of Donald Trump, compared to if Ted Cruz would have instead prevailed.

In part 1 of the interview, (second video in the below video playlist) Wilson explained the importance of predictive data and how the two parties have used it to win recent elections.  The WPA CEO described the Cruz campaign's devotion to it, how Wilson ran the operations, its impact to that campaign.  Perhaps worse for the GOP nominee and the party, Wilson also described how the Trump campaign is utterly dwarfed by the Clinton operation in its use.

Indeed, Trump is an unusual candidate and has broken the dams of conventional wisdoms probably more often than any presidential candidate in American history.  However, the question Wilson raised is simple--by the GOP campaigns not devoting resources to the development of this dataflow of predictive preferences of voters, the presidential and party candidate opportunites wins just might go dry.   

Wilson compared the party use of predictive data at the presidential and the down ticket levels. The Democrats have more consultants, more candidates utilizing this data science.  This scenario has existed ever since Barack Obama’s substantial victory over Republican John McCain.  

While Clinton campaign has roughly ten scientists in house, the Trump campaign use is somewhere single-digits.  Wilson compared the benefits of this new analytics compared to polls, and why its hiring these firms is as important as hiring other campaign staffers and operations. 

Last modified on Friday, 12 August 2016 17:21
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