Last week, I had an opportunity to discuss the campaign with one of these political consultants, Chris Wilson. Also, last week, we published parts 1 and 2 of the video conversation we had to discuss the power of predictive data versus polling, how it was used during the Ted Cruz campaign yet, poorly used by Trump and others. In addition, Wilson and I talked about the Trump campaign.
Cruz was a consultant for the Ted Cruz campaign and had a senior role during the presidential campaign.
In part 3, the focus turned directly onto Wilson’s prediction for the presidential and lower ballot campaigns.
Here are the highlights:
Every one of these campaigns need to run their own campaigns, worry about themselves and make and know there’s not a calvary coming to save them like you typically would find with presidential campaign.
The Trump campaign is well-funded and as things stand now, the US Senate candidates in swing states are at risk. Pennsylvania’s Pat Toomey, New Hampshire’s Kelly Ayotte and others are not doing as well as they could because of Trump’s performance at the top of the ticket.
Although others might be stating the campaign is all but over, Wilson doesn’t feel that is the case because of the ongoing email scandal and because the debates have not yet occurred but it's definitely an uphill climb. Wilson said, “and that's why I think you are seeing I believe the last count is now somewhere around 38 Republican elected officials that have now said that you either are not voting for Trump or voting for Clinton and that's what you're going to see some of these people separate running for reelection separate themselves”
While the Trump campaign is blasting the media for his current free-fall in the polls, Wilson said, there have been many times when Clinton has said something incredibly stupid and she gets bailed out by Trump as he did on the second amendment--he can't help himself .
The Trump rallies might be uplifting to “because he gets up there he is unscripted he just speaks off the cuff”, and the statement ends hurting him disallowing the full impact of the Clinton news.
The RNC has had there was an article today about how many people left the RNC since being in this
Wilson predicts that in six months “you will not be able to find a single person at that convention that will say they booed him, and instead will say, “yea, I was with Ted Cruz all along”.
Wilson believes that fundamentally most members of the media are liberals but feels they fundamentally care about their jobs and want to be fair.
All you have to do is look at Louisiana to see what happens the governor's election last time you have two candidates and one just fundamentally just becomes disqualified in the eyes of voters.