LIVE: VIDEO AND POLITICS

Tuesday, 27 September 2016 11:07
Accuracy of Louisiana US Senate race poll questioned, pollster responds
Written by 
Rate this item
(2 votes)

tweets pinsonat 3These days, being a pollster is not easy.

For one, supporters of one of the other candidates (and often even the other candidates themselves) will always blast the pollster when they don’t like the poll.

 

 

Often the pollster is hired by the candidate or a supporter of the candidate. Sometimes, the polls are independent.

Last week Bernie Pinsonat presented his latest poll. Bernie is the President of SMOR (Southern Media & Opinion Research). The poll, which was paid for by his subscribers (not any candidates) showed that Charles Boustany had done exceedingly well since the May poll that SMOR conducted and was now in a virtual tie with front-runner John Kennedy. Essentially, compared to the last poll by SMOR, Boustany had jumped up five points from 10 to 15 percent and Treasurer John Kennedy dropped 17 points.

Kennedy has been leading almost all polls with double digit numbers, so, I, for one, was quite surprised to see the current results.

Over the past few days, following the publishing of the poll, we posted my interview with Pinsonat who discussed the numbers and provided analysis. I conducted the interview, hours after he released his poll. During the interview, Pinsonat said he felt that the poll numbers reflected a focused effort by Republican Congressman Charles Boustany to consolidate his support in Lafayette and the Cajun country with a large media ad buy. Pinsonat also noted that Kennedy was just starting his media buy that very day that he released his poll.

Pinsonat said Democrat Caroline Fayard (11.4) had outpolled Democrat Foster Campbell (9.2), which again, was a surprise to me. he said he thought she was perceived as an attractive candidate and with the support of the Landrieu family, could be very competitive. He also noted that Republican Congressman John Fleming with 8.3% had pulled away from the pack of strong conservatives, right winger neo-nazi Republican David Duke 3.1% and Republican Colonel Rob Maness at 3.3%.

During the interview, Pinsonat emphasized that the poll was not necessarily a good indicator of the future vote especially since the ad buys for most of the other candidates were just beginning and because the public was just beginning to become focused upon the US Senate race.

When I first published last week’s poll, I received a tweet from a person who questioned the accuracy of the poll, the fairness of the media and the veracity of the pollster.

The person posted her reasons for her issues with the poll.

Since I was going to interview Pinsonat later in the afternoon, I decided to use her tweets and question Pinsonat.

The first issue involved her claim that Pinsonat did not include crosstabs in his poll. That claim was incorrect, he did. We, had received the poll and published a summary of it and did not have sufficient time to post the complete poll at the time that we published the article. Her accusation was not accurate.

She also raised two other issues in her tweets. I presented those tweets to Pinsonat.

Here are her tweets. Watch the video for his responses. He did not see the actual tweets but I read them to Pinsonat.

In addition to Pinsonat’s reply to the tweets, he discussed Governor John Bel Edwards and Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers.

Edwards poll numbers soared by double-digits, Pinsonat opined because he handled the flood disaster well.

Pinsonat also noted that Trump and Hillary Clinton were not popular in the state, with Clinton being very unpopular. The pollster felt that Trump’s popularity was more of a function of Clinton’s unpopularity.

Watch the video to view Pinsonat's response to the tweets. Also, at bottom of page are the prior articles related to our recent interview.

 

Last modified on Tuesday, 27 September 2016 13:07
Login to post comments
  • A July 4th Fact of Facts: America is Land of Immigrants
  • Poll: Trump strong on jobs, weak on tweets, viewed as reckless, thin-skinned, sexist
  • President Trump, It doesn't feel like Independence Day
  • YIPPIE! The naked truth about free speech, cherished especially on Independence Day

mass2On July 4, 1778, George Washington doubled liquor rations for the soldiers quartered in Princeton, NJ, as a way to celebrate Independence Day. It’s fitting, therefore, that the Fourth of July is America's top-selling beer holiday, according to the Beer Institute. It estimated, in 2013, that sales of beer on the 4th could total $1 billion, doubtlessly higher today. “In moderation,” claims a CA brewery investor, Grover McKean, “beer is tasty and healthy.” Who could disagree?

Read More

joe mikaAs Donald Trump faces the top world leaders this week, including a face-time with Vladimir Putin, and as his healthcare proposals face an uphill climb, his poll numbers for how the nation views him could be better.

According to a morning Consult/Politico poll released Wednesday morning, his tweets, including that against MSNBC's Mika Brzezinski, and his personality are not helping him, at all.

Read More

indy dayII know the calendar says we are approaching the 4th of July, but, it just doesn’t feel like Independence Day.

Perhaps it should.  It’s hot as heck.  The airlines have been packed. The hot dogs are ready for grilling.  The umps are saying, "play ball". The patriotic activities are scheduled. The fireworks are ready-for-blasting. 

Yet, it just doesn’t feel like independence day.

Read More

bill rights2To President Thomas Jefferson, July 4th celebrated more than the signing of the Declaration of Independence. He thought it was a link to the future. The message prominent colonists sent to King George III led to the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, the initial and most prominent feature of which is the First Amendment that guarantees free speech. It’s part of the country’s fundamental essence that each man and woman can say what they feel about government, or anything else, proving President Donald Trump needs some civics lessons.

Read More

BB Menu

latter-blum2

Dead Pelican

Optimized-DeadPelican2 1 1