According to JMC Analytics and Polling, Republican Congressman John Fleming has emerged as the leading Republican candidate and one Democrat, Foster Campbell leads all of the candidates.
However, at least one critic of the poll claims it is skewed in favor of Fleming, who paid for the JMC poll.
The survey shows that Campbell has taken a commanding lead while three Republican candidates are actually in a virtual tie.
Here are the results:
Duke 2.6 %
Maness 2.4 %
With undecided factored out
Campbell 24.6 %
Fleming 16.3 %
Kennedy 15.9 %
Boustany 15.8 %
Fayard 10.3 %
Duke 2.8 %
Maness 2.6 %
Pollster John Couvillon comments of his findings are:
1.For the U.S. Senate race, five candidates once had a path to the runoff – now, four do;
2.On the Democratic side, Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell essentially has clinched a runoff spot;
3. On the Republican side, Congressman John Fleming has catapulted into a lead among Republican voters; and if undecided “leaners” are included, will face Foster Campbell in the December 10 runoff;
4. Donald Trump has a seven point (45-38%) lead in Louisiana now – down from 10 points a month ago (and 15 points in July).
Not everybody agrees with the poll results, particularly, the Democrat Caroline Fayard campaign, which released the following email press release. Her campaign was the 6th candidate who, at least, according to Couvillon, no longer has path to victory, given that her democrat opponent, Campbell, reportedly has taken a sizeable lead.
Here are her campaign comments:
The new poll on the U.S. Senate race funded by Rep. John Fleming delivers the results his campaign paid for: a fictional path to the run-off for Fleming, propping up Commissioner Foster Campbell as the straw man he knows he can beat. The prior poll funded by Fleming’s operation painted a similar rosy picture, and was almost immediately contradicted by independent polling that flatly refuted their results. With this new iteration, JMC Analytics’ results for Fleming point the way to a run-off no credible analysis supports.
“You get what you pay for with things like this,” said David Morris, Caroline Fayard’s campaign manager. “Rep. Fleming has yet to get out of the single digits in any poll he didn’t sponsor. And in this instance, their methodology gives every undecided voter that moved to the only Democrat every Republican knows they can beat. It’s pure fantasy.”
"Caroline went on television in a major way the end of last week and was endorsed by Senator Mary Landrieu on Friday. We will continue speaking with voters rather than release cooked polls," said Morris.
“We’re talking about a polling operation that isn’t even included in reputable analysis like Nate Silver’s 538 forecast,” said Beau Tidwell, Communications Director for Fayard’s campaign. “It’s not even a fairy tale, really. It’s the worst kind of fan-fiction, bought and paid for by a losing campaign, being used to prop up a stagnant one.”
The poll’s flawed methodology significantly underrepresents African American voters, and is overly reliant on robo-calls to landline users, partially accounting for the distorted results