Louisiana Coast with Jimmy Fredrick

Wednesday, 19 October 2016 10:50
Polls, Debates, Wikileaks, GOP scare: Trump self-destruction, time short but can turn it around
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trump smokeOn Tuesday, Bayoubuzz publisher interviewed John C. Couvillon of JMC Analytics and Polling.  In part two of the interview, Couvillon discussed his recent poll involving the drop in support for Donald Trump in Louisiana, a state that is strongly Republican.

Over the past couple of weeks, Couvillon has polled the upcoming US Senate race and has also questioned voters regarding the Presidential race.  Trump has dropped roughly 50 percent during this polling period.

 

Of importance, Trump’s support of a 15% margin over Hillary Clinton has dropped to 8% and that based on that and other polls Couvillon has viewed indicates that there is a softening in support for Trump among White Democrats and women. 

Couvillon notes that the overall drop since the controversial and embarrassing Trump-Billy Bush recording has been about 2%, which could have been much more but for recent damaging WikiLeak email leaks from John Podesta Clinton’s campaign chairman’s Gmail account. 

Couvillon also believes Clinton has a growing advantage in swing states except for Iowa and Nevada.

The pollster warns that if Trump can’t come back this week, it might be past the tipping point.  Couvillon believes the email leaks in a normal situation might cost a candidate about 5 to 10% loss.   He feels that Trump is not making much effort to get the GOP support, especially those who have not been warmed up to him in the first place.  He does see a negativity in the country, that is toxic, similar to that faced Jimmy Carter in which gives an opportunity for a candidate, but Trump is not taking advantage of it.

Couvillon feels that if Trump does not close the gap this week, people could start leaving the campaign in droves. That's what happened with Bob Dole in 1996 and after that they did, it was more downhill.

The pollster does believe there is a drop in partisan voting intensity in Ohio and Iowa of roughly 50 percent difference compared to 2012, which does indicate that Clinton is not getting out the vote. 

 

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