Louisiana Coast with Jimmy Fredrick

Friday, 28 October 2016 11:32
Comparing SMOR's and Verne Kennedy's (MRI) polls in Louisiana US Senate Race
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boustanyVerne Kennedy released his poll on Thursday (and cross-tabs) and the results are somewhat similar to the poll by Bernie Pinsonat and Southern Media & Opinion Research, who also released its own survey, one day earlier.

Both Kennedy's (MRI-Research) and Pinsonat's polls are independent, that is, they are not paid for by any candidate or political committee associated with any candidate.  In general, both are considered to be among the most accurate polls. 

There are some differences in the results.

According to Kennedy, Republican Treasurer John Kennedy barely nips Republican Congressman Charles Boustany 17 to 16%.  Democrat Public Service Commissioner, Foster Campbell tops Democrat Caroline Fayard with 14 to 12% respectively followed by Republican Congressman John Fleming at 7% and Rob Maness with 2%.

In the SMOR survey, Treasurer John Kennedy leads the US Senate race with 22 percent, Foster Campbell 16%, Congressman Boustany 14%, Caroline Fayard 12% and Congressman John Fleming 9%.

In the Presidential race, according to Kennedy, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton 43 to 36%.   However, in the SMOR poll, Trump leads by 15%, 50 to 35 percent.

Here are the results and comparisons between September and October Kennedy results:

 

                            SEPT.      OCT.

      BOUSTANY (R) 12%        16%

      CAMPBELL (D)  10   14

      FAYARD (D)       11   12

      FLEMING (R)     10     7

      KENNEDY (R)    18          17

      MANESS (R)       4     2   

   

        

Here is the analysis by Verne Kennedy:

OVERALL ANALYSIS

  • In the past month, Boustany vote went from 12% to 16% and Campbell from 10% to 14% vote.  Fleming lost vote from 10% to 7% probably due to unfavorable publicity on someone close to his campaign offering another candidate money to get out of the race.
  • Clinton voters favored Campbell 33% and Fayard 29%.  Trump voters favored Kennedy 29%, Boustany 28%, and Fleming 12%.
  • A good gauge of candidate appeal is the percent of favorable opinion voting for them:  Boustany 45%, Fayard 45%, Campbell 40%, Kennedy 37% & Fleming 26%.
  • Among definite Republicans, Boustany 31%, Kennedy 25%, and Fleming 13%.
  • Among definite Democrats:  Campbell 32% and Fayard 24%.
  • White voters:  Kennedy 23%, Boustany 19%, Campbell 10%, and Fleming 9%.
  • African Americans:  Campbell 24% and Fayard 23%.
  • Boustany runs first in Lafayette and Lake Charles and Kennedy first in other DMA’s except Shreveport where Campbell does best.
  • Kennedy still has a significant gender gap with 21% from men and only 14% from women.  Only other candidates with gender gaps are Campbell 17% men and 12% women and Fayard 16% women and 6% men.
  • The New Orleans with 34% of all Louisiana voters is likely to determine the primary outcome.  Kennedy has 19% and Boustany 9% with Campbell and Fayard about 15% each.

SECOND CHOICES

  • In the final two weeks of primary campaigning it is important to understand how votes would shift from current choice to another candidate if candidates lose vote from negative press or opposition attacks.
  • As expected, Boustany’ s vote would go primarily to Kennedy and Fleming.
  • Campbell’s vote to Fayard, and Fayard’ s vote to Campbell.
  • Fleming’s vote strongly to Kennedy followed by Boustany
  • Kennedy’s vote strongly to Fleming followed by Boustany.

SENATE RUNOFF

  • The senate run-off has slightly higher probability of being between two Republicans than one Republican and one Democrat.
  • If between a Republican and Democrat, the Republican is almost guaranteed a win unless the Republican somehow, which is unlikely, increases significantly in unfavorable opinion.
  • A run-off between two Republicans would most likely be between Kennedy and Boustany and current survey results show that either can win.
  • A run-off between Kennedy and Boustany would have very low Democratic vote and high Republican vote.  In the primary balloting Boustany received 31% and Kennedy 25% of definite Republicans, but Kennedy did better among Independents and Democrats.

SURVEY CONCLUSION

  • The presidential campaign is impacting Louisiana where Trump with a 17% lead in late September now has a 7% advantage.  This has changed self party identification giving Republicans a 4% advantage several weeks ago to a 2% advantage in this survey.  This has increased the likelihood that we could shave a Republican vs Democrat run-off.
  • Based on current results, a two Republican run-off would almost certainly be Kennedy and Boustany.
  • A Republican vs Democrat run-off gives Kennedy or  Boustany an almost definite win. In a Republican vs Democrat run-off Campbell currently has an advantage over Fayard.  However, Black vote could easily shift giving the advantage to Fayard.

 

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