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Monday, 31 October 2016 13:17
3 Louisiana US Senate polls: 2nd spot up for grabs
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flemingThree new Senate polls
    The polls just keep coming on the race for the Louisiana U.S. Senate seat.  Over the past week, three new polls have surfaced, and all indicate a tight race for the two top spots.

    Republican State Treasurer John Kennedy continues to lead in all three polls with the battle seeming to be for second place and a runoff spot between Democrat Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell and Republican U.S. Rep. Charles Boustany.
    Let’s take a look at each poll according to the dates taken.
SMOR Poll (Oct. 19-21)
    Southern Media and Opinion Research of Baton Rouge conducted its poll between Oct. 19 and Oct. 21 of 500 likely voters by telephone.  It has a margin of error of +/-4.4%.  The results:
    John Kennedy (R) – 22%.
    Foster Campbell (D) – 15.5%.
    Charles Boustany (R) – 14.1%.
    Caroline Fayard (D) – 11.6%.
    John Fleming (R) – 8.8%.
    Joshua Pellerin (D) – 3.5%.
    Rob Maness (R) – 3.4%.
    David Duke (R) – 3%.
    Other Candidates – 3%.
    Undecided – 15.1%.
    Bernie Pinsonat of SMOR tells the Fax-Net that his poll is not robo calls and that it uses operators to ask questions.  At least 30% of those surveyed had cell phones.
    He noted that the poll indicates the runoff should feature Campbell against either Kennedy or Boustany. Campbell, with the endorsement of Gov. John Bel Edwards is beginning to dominate the black vote statewide.
    “If Boustany increases his vote in Acadiana, he’s likely in the runoff.  But Kennedy can also do the same in the East Baton Rouge area and Jefferson and St. Tammany parishes, but as of today, one of these two is most likely,” Pinsonat said.
MRI Poll (Oct. 18-20)
    Verne Kennedy of Market Research Insight of Gulf Breeze, Florida, conducted its poll between Oct. 17 and Oct. 20 with 600 likely voters using land lines and cell phones.  The poll has a margin of error of +/-3%.  The results:
    John Kennedy (R) – 17%.
    Charles Boustany (R) – 16%.
    Foster Campbell (D) – 14%.
    Caroline Fayard (D) – 12%.
    John Fleming (R) – 7%.
    Rob Maness (R) – 2%.
    Others/Undecided – 32%.
    Kennedy concludes that there is a high probability of a runoff between two Republicans – Kennedy and Boustany.  If the runoff is between a Republican and a Democrat, the Republican has the upper hand.
    He notes that in a Republican vs. Democrat runoff Campbell currently has the advantage over Fayard, however the black vote could easily shift giving the advantage to Fayard.
UNO Poll (Oct. 15-21)
  The University of New Orleans Survey Research Center conducted its poll from Oct. 15 through Oct. 21 among 603 likely voters using landlines and cell phones.  The margin of error is +/-4%.  The results:
    John Kennedy (R) – 22%.
    Charles Boustany (R) – 15%.
    Foster Campbell (D) – 15%.
    John Fleming (R) – 11%.
    Caroline Fayard (D) – 12%.
    Rob Maness (R) – 4%.
    David Duke (R) – 2%.
    Other/Undecided – 21%.
    The UNO poll concludes that the race is between Kennedy and someone else, likely Boustany or Campbell.  Overall, 56% say they will vote Republican in the Senate race.
    The poll also reveals that Kennedy outperforms everyone else with likely voters over the age of 45, a critical voting bloc.  One-quarter of these voters say they will vote for Kennedy.
    Campbell also does well with the state’s oldest voters, with 21% saying they will vote for him, compared to only 6% for Fayard.

Lou Gehrig Burnett

Lou Gehrig Burnett is the publisher of Fax-Net, a North-Louisiana newsletter.

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