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Thursday, 24 September 2015 16:05
Gumbo PAC's PPP shows Edwards beating Vitter by 12, and moon is orange
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orange-moonSo, is the moon orange?

A liberal-oriented polling organization has rendered a new survey in the Louisiana governor's race, on behalf of Gumbo PAC, an organization dedicated to ensure that David Vitter is not elected governor of the state.

 

While, I could agree that sometimes the moon might take on a slightly orange appearance in the autumn nights of Halloween, that's only because it's in costune.  I could also agree with many of the numbers in the latest Public Policy Polling survey--an Edwards vs. Vitter runofff, its conclusion that Democratic candidate Jon Bel Edwards is substantially ahead of Vitter by a margin of 12, 50-38, in a half-on-head runoff combat, is a moon of a different color.  

Remember, this is Louisiana, one of the angriest, reddest states in the union.  Almost all other polls show Vitter ahead of Edwards in a two-man battle.  

There are two reason that there is no way that Edwards would beat Vitter in the runoff by 12 points, if at all--the state's conservative domination and Vitter campaign cash.  Thus far, Vitter and all other candidates have given Edwards a free pass.  Not so, if he is the target Team Vittter's and his Super PAC's barrage of future TV,  radio and direct mail ads.  

By comparison, PPP in its Oct. 31 to Nov. 1 survey polled Landrieu with 43, Cassidy with 35 and Maness with 15 percent. The election night numbers were Landrieu 42, Cassidy 40.9, Maness 13.7.

Roughly one month prior to the runoff, PPP had Cassidy nipping Landrieu, 48 to 47 with 5 percent uncetain.  The final results? Cassidy smashed Landrieu 57 to 43.

Here is the PPP survey which is enntitled "Vitter Badly Damaged; Highly Vulnerable in Runoff Election" 

A new national Public Policy Polling survey of Louisiana voters finds that David Vitter has seen a large decline in his popularity over the last year, and that while he’s still favored to make the runoff for Governor he is in a bad position when it comes to a head to head match up with John Bel Edwards.

Key findings from the survey include:

-Vitter has become quite unpopular, with only 34% of voters rating him favorably to 51% with a negative opinion of him. A year ago at this time 46% of voters approved of the job he was doing to just 35% who disapproved. Most striking is how sour even Republicans have gotten on him- only 46% rate him favorably to 44% who see him negatively. And he’s quite unpopular with both independents (30/52) and Democrats (24/58).

-Vitter is still well positioned to make the runoff election. His 27% standing is just behind 28% for John Bel Edwards, but well ahead of the 15% and 14% Scott Angelle and Jay Dardenne respectively are receiving. Among voters who are undecided for Governor, only 24% have a favorable opinion of Vitter to 49% with an unfavorable one, suggesting he may not have a lot of room to gain either.

-When it comes to the runoff election Vitter trails Edwards 50/38, a massive turn around from a year ago when Vitter led that match up 50/32. 28% of Republican voters even say right now that they would vote for Edwards before they would vote for Vitter. Other Republicans fare better than Vitter in match ups against Edwards- Dardenne leads him 42/40, while Angelle ties at 40%.

-Vitter is especially struggling with women. Only 28% have a favorable opinion of him to 54% with a negative one, and he trails Edwards 57/30 head to head with them.

These numbers make it clear that the landscape around the Louisiana Gubernatorial race has changed dramatically. A year ago Vitter looked like a clear favorite but he’s become very unpopular in the time since, and now it appears that there is a very good chance he will be defeated this fall.

Public Policy Polling surveyed 616 likely voters on September 21st and 22nd on behalf of Gumbo PAC. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%

See poll

DARDENNE

Lt. Governor Jay Dardenne’s campaign will report more than $1,600,000 in cash on hand when his latest campaign finance report is filed with theLouisiana Board of Ethicstoday.

Preliminary numbers show Dardenne has raised $3.5 million for the 2015 Governor’s race, nearly $1.3 million dollars this year with more than 93 percent of that coming from Louisiana donors.

“We are ready for the stretch run,” Dardenne said. “People are looking for a candidate who will change the way we do business in Louisiana, which means ending Washington style partisan politics and instead working to bring people together to take on the problems we face.”

The campaign has raised more than $360,000 during the two months covered by the report.

“Regardless of which poll you’re following right now, the fact is that SenatorVitter’s numbers have fallen across the board. He and his PAC are using all of their resources to discredit Jay Dardenne’s record and will they will twist the truth and even lie. We have the resources to set the record straight and ensure voters know there is a scandal-free, experienced alternative who has a plan to tackle the challenges Louisiana faces,” Jay Vicknair, Dardenne for Governor campaign manager, said.

The #lalege budget is a disaster, demanding detailed proposals, not voter-friendly soundbites, from Gov. candidates. http://t.co/xxzqVnZAKd

— JR Ball (@jrball35) September 24, 2015

#LSU seeking to oust operator of Shreveport, Monroe hospitals under Jindal privatization deal (from @AP) #lalege http://t.co/NgThqK5V0B

— Melinda Deslatte (@MelindaDeslatte) September 24, 2015

FREEDOM CAUCUS met privately TWICE today. some BOEHNER/LDRSHP allies expect them to move against Boehner soon as FRI http://t.co/yYWkGWGPlt

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) September 24, 2015

FREEDOM CAUCUS met privately TWICE today. some BOEHNER/LDRSHP allies expect them to move against Boehner soon as FRI http://t.co/yYWkGWGPlt

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