Monday, 28 September 2015 12:01
Clarus poll threatens David Vitter's invincibility, but senator is man to beat
Written by 

vitter-memo

Yesterday, the United States Sen. David Vitter, had a bad poll day.

 A WWL TV, The Advocate, and Ron Faucheaux Claris Research poll, just released, indicates that in the open primary, if held today, Vitter would be tied with Jon Bell Edwards at 24% with both Jay Dardenne and Scott Angelle trailing by roughly 10 points. 

Perhaps worse, if the runoff election were held today, all three candidates would beat him in a runoff.   

Unlike the last independent poll by Bernie Pinsonat and SMOR, back in spring 2015, this survey was taken after qualifying, after all candidates have launched their television and radio commercials, after other polls have thrown out pretty absurd numbers, after the most recent Louisiana legislative session, after numerous forums including one on statewide television which David Vitter did not attend.

The poll has come out at a time when the voters have begun to focus.

No doubt, Vitter would love to be 10 or 20 points ahead as he has been perceived to be the incumbent but as of right now that is not so. Nor is he 12 points behind as a recent democratic-leaning poll, PPP declared last week.

Unquestionably, the Clarus survey will be analyzed by many in the upcoming days (including by this websites).  Clancy Dubos of The Gambit has already made some interesting observations.

In his blog today--which compares this poll to that of the last one by Bernie Pinsonat, Clancy points out that Vitter has lost the “soft” supporters.  Thus, at 24%, it appeared that his “hard core” base is at 25%, which is less than the roughly 40 percent supporting Mary Landrieu going into the primary one month out.

The surer win would be if one of the two Republicans were to be in the runoff with Vitter.  At this point in time, Democrat Jon Bel Edwards would have a slight lead against Vitter--but he has not been hit with negative television and radio ads as of yet, has not been linked to Obama, the Landrieu’s or anybody as of yet.  So far he has had a free ride since Vitter wants him in the runoff and since the other republicans want to beat Vitter, so they can take on the Democrat.

JOIN US TODAY: Vitter at risk in governor's race? Today 01:30pm PDT. Subscribe now ➼@jimbrownla, Lawrence Chehardy #lagov https://t.co/DQ4zTxUV3R #blab

This does not mean that Vitter, were he get into the runoff with Edwards, would have an easy time, even with his millions of dollars from his campaign and super PAC.  However this is Louisiana post-Katrina. Democrats do not win statewide elections.

While Vitter needs to reassess his position going into this election, no matter who runs against him in the runoff, assuming he is fortunate to be one of the candidates, he will have two major pluses in this election--cash and the conservative voter dominance.

Despite the two recent polls, (and other polls showing him with a 50-52 percent negative), “money cannot buy” Vitter cash and conservative dominance.

Vitter needs not get out of his catbird seat, but he does need to be watch out for the woodpeckers flying around the neighborhood.

Scott Angelle's sinkhole or Team Vitter's sinking and slurring?
Friday, 25 September 2015 14:48Written by 

scott-sinkholeAre the recent attacks by the Vitter PAC  (officially known as the “Funds for Louisiana’s Future”) and by his gubernatorial campaign against Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle regarding his role, in the Bayou Corne sinkhole tragedy, accurate?  Are they truthful?

 
 

 

The future of social video, politics and elections: Blab, Periscope, Google Hangouts, Meerkat
Sunday, 27 September 2015 19:41Written by 

jim-scott-social-vidWe're in the explosive Google Hangouts, Blab, Periscope, Meerkat revolution and very few are noticing.   

Actually, many in the political communities, appear to be unaware of the new, explosive and inexpensive technologies available to them.  Why is that?  

Login to post comments
  • A July 4th Fact of Facts: America is Land of Immigrants
  • Poll: Trump strong on jobs, weak on tweets, viewed as reckless, thin-skinned, sexist
  • President Trump, It doesn't feel like Independence Day
  • YIPPIE! The naked truth about free speech, cherished especially on Independence Day

mass2On July 4, 1778, George Washington doubled liquor rations for the soldiers quartered in Princeton, NJ, as a way to celebrate Independence Day. It’s fitting, therefore, that the Fourth of July is America's top-selling beer holiday, according to the Beer Institute. It estimated, in 2013, that sales of beer on the 4th could total $1 billion, doubtlessly higher today. “In moderation,” claims a CA brewery investor, Grover McKean, “beer is tasty and healthy.” Who could disagree?

Read More

joe mikaAs Donald Trump faces the top world leaders this week, including a face-time with Vladimir Putin, and as his healthcare proposals face an uphill climb, his poll numbers for how the nation views him could be better.

According to a morning Consult/Politico poll released Wednesday morning, his tweets, including that against MSNBC's Mika Brzezinski, and his personality are not helping him, at all.

Read More

indy dayII know the calendar says we are approaching the 4th of July, but, it just doesn’t feel like Independence Day.

Perhaps it should.  It’s hot as heck.  The airlines have been packed. The hot dogs are ready for grilling.  The umps are saying, "play ball". The patriotic activities are scheduled. The fireworks are ready-for-blasting. 

Yet, it just doesn’t feel like independence day.

Read More

bill rights2To President Thomas Jefferson, July 4th celebrated more than the signing of the Declaration of Independence. He thought it was a link to the future. The message prominent colonists sent to King George III led to the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, the initial and most prominent feature of which is the First Amendment that guarantees free speech. It’s part of the country’s fundamental essence that each man and woman can say what they feel about government, or anything else, proving President Donald Trump needs some civics lessons.

Read More

latter-blum2

Dead Pelican

Optimized-DeadPelican2 1 1