Tuesday, 29 September 2015 10:33
Fax-Net: PPP Louisiana governor's poll is shocking
Written by 

mansionby Lou Gehrig Burnett, Publisher of Fax-Net
Shocking governor’s poll
    A new poll on the Louisiana governor’s race has analysts and politicos scratching their heads.  The poll finds that Republican U.S. Sen. David Vitter’s popularity is declining as are his chances of becoming governor.

    The poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling (PPP) on September 21 and 22 and surveyed 616 likely voters.  The margin of error is +/-4%.
    The poll is pretty much in line with previous polls when all candidates are included in a question about whom you would vote for.  Here are those results:
    State Rep. John Bel Edwards (D) – 28%.
    U.S. Sen. David Vitter (R) – 27%.
    PSC Scott Angelle (R) – 15%.
    Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne (R) – 14%
    Undecided – 17%.
    It is assumed that Edwards, the Democrat, will make the runoff. But what is causing all the chatter is that in a head-to-head match-up question, Edwards leads Vitter 50-38% with 12% not sure.
    When Angelle is matched up with Edwards, the result is 40 to 40% with 20% not sure.  Dardenne does the best against Edwards, leading 42 to 40% with 18% not sure.
    PPP contends its figures are viable given the fact that only 34% of those surveyed now have a favorable opinion of Vitter while a whopping 51% view him unfavorably.
    Edwards has a 35% favorable opinion and 27% unfavorable. Angelle has a 29% favorable and a 29% unfavorable, while Dardenne has a 33% favorable and a 32% unfavorable.
    More bad news for Vitter, according to PPP, is the fact that Republicans have soured on him with only 46% rating him favorably and 44% unfavorably.  And he is quite unpopular with both independents (30/52) and Democrats (24/58).
    When it comes to the runoff election between  Vitter and Democrat Edwards, 28% of Republicans said they would vote for Edwards over Vitter.
    PPP summed it up this way: “These numbers make it clear that the landscape around the Louisiana Gubernatorial race has changed dramatically.  A year ago Vitter looked like a clear favorite, but he’s become unpopular in the time since, and now it appears that there is a very good chance he will be defeated this fall.”
    Fear not poll watchers.  There will be more polls before the election, and we will see if they agree with PPP’s results. 

Bayoubuzz Note: The above was written prior to a more recent release of a poll below



Yesterday, the United States Sen. David Vitter, had a bad poll day.

It’s all about the money
    The long-awaited campaign finance reports are finally available covering campaign activity through September 14.
    As usual, it’s all about the money.  In this day and age, if you want to run for and win an elected office, money is the name of the game.    And incumbents seeking re-election have a distinct advantage over their challengers.  They are either sitting on a pile of campaign funds compiled over the years they were in office, or they can quickly raise money if an unexpected challenge emerges.

    When running for office, one has to have funds for filing fees, push cards, yard signs, billboards, bus benches, mailouts, media advertising and a political consultant, if funds allow.  In major raises, radio and television ads also come into play.
    With that in mind, let’s take a look at the latest campaign reports in some of the major races on the ballot on October 24.  Keep in mind that the figures will not always appear to compute.  
    That’s because in-kind contributions are subtracted from the amount of cash on hand at the conclusion of the report.  Loans are personal funds of the candidate and are added to total receipts.
Caddo Sheriff
    A prime example of the advantage of being an incumbent can be seen in the race for Caddo sheriff.  Incumbent Republican Steve Prator is seeking a fifth four-year term.  
    As a longtime incumbent, he has made sure he had a hefty campaign fund should a challenge arise.  And one has.  Constable Eric Hatfield is providing Prator with his first serious challenge since he was elected in 1999.  Here are the reports:
Incumbent Steve Prator (R)
    Cash on Hand as of 1/1/15 – $199,250.
    Total Receipts Through 9/14 – $297,846.
    Total Expenditures – $171,932.
    Cash on Hand as of 9/14 – $297,594.
Constable Eric Hatfield (D)
    Cash of Hand as of 1/1 – $0.
    Total Receipts Through 9/14 – $83,447.of which $2,500 was a personal loan to his committee.
    Total Expenditures – $81,055.
    Cash on Hand as of 9/14 – $245.
Caddo District Attorney
    The race for Caddo District Attorney is a special election to replace the late Charles Scott, therefore, there is no incumbent. Here are the reports:
Dhu Thompson (R)    
    Cash on Hand as of 1/1/15 – $0.
    Total Receipts Through 9/14 – $141,585.
    Total Expenditures – $100,658.
    Cash on Hand as of 9/14 – $36,942.
James Stewart (D)
    Cash on Hand as of 1/1/15 – $0.
    Total Receipts Through 9/14 – $133,234 of which $14,258 was a personal loan to his committee.
    Total Expenditures – $71,230.
    Cash on Hand as of 9/14 – $62,003.
Lee Harville (NP)
    Cash on Hand as of 1/1/15 – $0.
    Total Receipts Through 9/14 – $41,130 of which $36,000 was a personal loan to his committee.
    Total Expenditures – $36,047.
    Cash of Hand as of 9/14 – $3,722.
Mark Rogers (D)
    Cash on Hand as of 1/1/15 – $0.
    Total Receipts Through 9/14 – $17,243 of which $16,743 was a personal loan to his committee.
    Total Expenditures – $17,223.
    Cash on Hand as of 9/14 – $19.98.
Casey Simpson (R)
    Cash on Hand as of 1/1/15 – $0.
    Total Receipts Through 9/14 – $1,820.
    Total Expenditures – $1,923.
    Cash on Hand as of 9/14 – minus $103
LaLeshia Walker Alford (D).
    Cash on Hand as of 1/1/15 – $0.
    Total Receipts Through 9/13 – $1,700.
    Total Expenditures – $766.
    Cash on Hand as of 9.14 – $934.

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Lou Gehrig Burnett

Lou Gehrig Burnett is the publisher of Fax-Net, a North-Louisiana newsletter.

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