After watching the video, click here
Sunday, 18 October 2015 20:37
UNO: Early voting reports are concern for Louisiana Democrats

ed-chervenak2If the Louisiana Democratic Party wants to generate a comeback this fall in the statewide and governor’s election, they are not doing a good job of showing it. 

Based upon some statistical information regarding “early voter turnout” provided by Dr. Edward E Chervenak, Director, Survey Research Center at UNO, turnout so far is down altogether, but the drop could be particularly hurtful to the campaigns of democrats and possibly even Jon Bel Edwards.

Last year, Democratic Mary Landrieu, lost her seat to Republican Bill Cassidy.  So, far, in all recent polls, Edwards has a strong lead and likely to be in the runoffs, but, those are just polls, not turnout.

A review of early voting data indicates that early voting for the 2015 election cycle was down when compared to early voting from the November 2014 election. Turnout was 7.7% for this cycle, a 10% decline from the numbers for the November 2014 election. (See Table 1 in Power Point).  That decrease, however, varied across voter registration categories. White turnout was down by less than 1% but African-American turnout fell by 25%. In fact, the difference in the rate of turnout across the two elections for African-Americans was twice that found for any other category of registered voters. As for gender, male participation dropped by just under 9% while there were 10% fewer women. When it came to party registration, 4% fewer Republicans showed up to vote while Democrats experienced a 13% drop in early voters compared to last year. By all indications blacks, women, and Democrats did not have the same level of motivation and enthusiasm to vote early as did whites and Republicans.

table1-uno 1



Table 2 in the Power Point again illuminates the Republican advantage in early voting. The ratio of Democrats to Republicans was calculated for registered voters and for early voters on each day of early voting. The ratio for whites to blacks was calculated as well. Table 2 shows that there were 1.64 registered Democrats for every registered Republican. That figure drops to 1.54 on the first day of early voting and continues its downward trend until the last of early voting where there were 1.40 Democratic early voters for every Republican early voter. The same trend holds for white and black voters. There are 2.05 registered whites for every African-American registered voter, but there are 2.66 white early voters for each African-American early voter.


table2-uno 1









The chart on the third Power Point compares the composition of the early vote electorate with that of registered voters. For example, it reveals that 64% of registered voters are white and that 71% of early voters are white. Conversely, blacks comprise 31% of registered voters but are only 27% of early voters. In short, whites are overrepresented among early voters while blacks are underrepresented. Both men and women are equally represented among early voters. Democrats enjoy a 4% advantage in the early vote electorate at the same time Republicans enjoy an 8% advantage. The Independent/3rd Party folks are poorly represented among early voters as are non-black minorities.


table3-uno 1

One of the story lines in the 2015 campaign has been the lack of interest by voters. The numbers from early voting provide some objective evidence to that assertion as a 10% drop is not insignificant. More critically, the drop off was most significant among those voters who are important to the success of a Democratic candidate: African-Americans, women, and registered Democrats. Whites and Republicans were almost as motivated to vote early in this election as they were in 2014. The same cannot be said for Democratic supporters.

Media Sources


Login to post comments
Powered By JFBConnect
  • Deja vu for Louisiana high-speed a Internet Broadband project, once again
  • Republicans Gatti, Crews vie for Louisiana House to replace now-Congressman Mike Johnson
  • Retiring Louisiana State Police Chief Edmonson retirement $ back in news
  • Trump, Ryan going to BAT for tax reform, economic growth

jindal broadbandIt’s déjà vu all over again for a broadband access project in Louisiana that saw the same mistakes repeated, leading to its demise both times.

Read More

lou gehrig burnettby Lou Gehrig Burnett, Publisher of Fax-Net

   Raymond Crews and Robbie Gatti are headed to a runoff in state House District 8 on April 29 to fill  the seat left vacant when Mike Johnson was elected  to Congress.  Both are Republicans.
    Crews came in first with 41% of the vote, followed by Gatti with 37%..  Two other candidates in the race were Duke Lowrie, who finished with 16%, and Patrick Harrington, who had 6%.

Read More

edmonson2by Tom Aswell, Publisher of Louisiana Voice

It must be nice when you can get the rules written just for you.

There must come a time when even the most disinterested, blasé, apolitical person living has to look up from whatever else occupies his interest and say, “Wait a damned minute. This just ain’t right and we’re not gonna do it.”

Read More

trump greatIt has been over three decades since our country’s last major tax reform was passed during the Reagan administration. Since that time, America has increased tax rates on businesses and individuals and become less competitive. 

Read More



Trump Talk: Ryancare, Russia, Investigations, Travel ban--with Jeff Crouere

Dead Pelican

Optimized-DeadPelican2 1 1