Friday, 23 October 2015 13:34
Polls, turnout and my Louisiana governor race prediction
Written by 

votingPolls, shmolls.

For months, we have been told that David Vitter is unbeatable because the poll says he is. 

 

We’ve been told that Jon Bel Edwards is spiking, Vitter falling, because the polls says they are.

We’ve been told that this poll is reliable and that poll isn’t;  That this poll says that and that poll, says this.

The truth, however, is, the polls might be correct in terms of being a snapshot in time, but the bottom line, is turnout.  Good old-fashion getting the folks to the polls.

What we do know is the Democrats cannot rely upon their getting the troops out to vote.  We know that David Vitter has a strong and committed 20 to 25%, again, based upon all the polls.

We know that voters are confused whether backing Dardenne or Angelle will make any difference in the ultimate outcome although, a recent poll claims that Vitter, Dardenne and Angelle are in a tight finish.

What we don’t know is whether the recent flurry of scandal-related articles will hurt David Vitter’s prospects at all.  According to one local political observer, conservative radio talk show host, Jeff Crouere, a segment of his callers are going to back Vitter regardless as to what is being said about him at this time.  They want a conservative and he’s their man.

How do I see it?

Vitter and Edwards with Dardenne and Angelle in the low teens.  Without any doubt, Vitter has the best GOTV machine, well-oiled and financed.  Ultimately, that's what counts. 

If Edwards is in the runoff and if he does not have a strong showing, he will have a very tough time raising money for the runoff, regardless as to who he might be fighting.  One factor will be whether Angelle and/or Dardenne endorse one of the contenders, or not. 

Am I willing to bet on any of this?

Absolutely not. 

Besides, I don’t bet.

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