Friday, 23 October 2015 13:34
Polls, turnout and my Louisiana governor race prediction
Written by 

votingPolls, shmolls.

For months, we have been told that David Vitter is unbeatable because the poll says he is. 

 

We’ve been told that Jon Bel Edwards is spiking, Vitter falling, because the polls says they are.

We’ve been told that this poll is reliable and that poll isn’t;  That this poll says that and that poll, says this.

The truth, however, is, the polls might be correct in terms of being a snapshot in time, but the bottom line, is turnout.  Good old-fashion getting the folks to the polls.

What we do know is the Democrats cannot rely upon their getting the troops out to vote.  We know that David Vitter has a strong and committed 20 to 25%, again, based upon all the polls.

We know that voters are confused whether backing Dardenne or Angelle will make any difference in the ultimate outcome although, a recent poll claims that Vitter, Dardenne and Angelle are in a tight finish.

What we don’t know is whether the recent flurry of scandal-related articles will hurt David Vitter’s prospects at all.  According to one local political observer, conservative radio talk show host, Jeff Crouere, a segment of his callers are going to back Vitter regardless as to what is being said about him at this time.  They want a conservative and he’s their man.

How do I see it?

Vitter and Edwards with Dardenne and Angelle in the low teens.  Without any doubt, Vitter has the best GOTV machine, well-oiled and financed.  Ultimately, that's what counts. 

If Edwards is in the runoff and if he does not have a strong showing, he will have a very tough time raising money for the runoff, regardless as to who he might be fighting.  One factor will be whether Angelle and/or Dardenne endorse one of the contenders, or not. 

Am I willing to bet on any of this?

Absolutely not. 

Besides, I don’t bet.

Login to post comments
  • A July 4th Fact of Facts: America is Land of Immigrants
  • Poll: Trump strong on jobs, weak on tweets, viewed as reckless, thin-skinned, sexist
  • President Trump, It doesn't feel like Independence Day
  • YIPPIE! The naked truth about free speech, cherished especially on Independence Day

mass2On July 4, 1778, George Washington doubled liquor rations for the soldiers quartered in Princeton, NJ, as a way to celebrate Independence Day. It’s fitting, therefore, that the Fourth of July is America's top-selling beer holiday, according to the Beer Institute. It estimated, in 2013, that sales of beer on the 4th could total $1 billion, doubtlessly higher today. “In moderation,” claims a CA brewery investor, Grover McKean, “beer is tasty and healthy.” Who could disagree?

Read More

joe mikaAs Donald Trump faces the top world leaders this week, including a face-time with Vladimir Putin, and as his healthcare proposals face an uphill climb, his poll numbers for how the nation views him could be better.

According to a morning Consult/Politico poll released Wednesday morning, his tweets, including that against MSNBC's Mika Brzezinski, and his personality are not helping him, at all.

Read More

indy dayII know the calendar says we are approaching the 4th of July, but, it just doesn’t feel like Independence Day.

Perhaps it should.  It’s hot as heck.  The airlines have been packed. The hot dogs are ready for grilling.  The umps are saying, "play ball". The patriotic activities are scheduled. The fireworks are ready-for-blasting. 

Yet, it just doesn’t feel like independence day.

Read More

bill rights2To President Thomas Jefferson, July 4th celebrated more than the signing of the Declaration of Independence. He thought it was a link to the future. The message prominent colonists sent to King George III led to the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, the initial and most prominent feature of which is the First Amendment that guarantees free speech. It’s part of the country’s fundamental essence that each man and woman can say what they feel about government, or anything else, proving President Donald Trump needs some civics lessons.

Read More

latter-blum2

Dead Pelican

Optimized-DeadPelican2 1 1