Friday, 23 October 2015 13:34
Polls, turnout and my Louisiana governor race prediction
Written by 

votingPolls, shmolls.

For months, we have been told that David Vitter is unbeatable because the poll says he is. 

 

We’ve been told that Jon Bel Edwards is spiking, Vitter falling, because the polls says they are.

We’ve been told that this poll is reliable and that poll isn’t;  That this poll says that and that poll, says this.

The truth, however, is, the polls might be correct in terms of being a snapshot in time, but the bottom line, is turnout.  Good old-fashion getting the folks to the polls.

What we do know is the Democrats cannot rely upon their getting the troops out to vote.  We know that David Vitter has a strong and committed 20 to 25%, again, based upon all the polls.

We know that voters are confused whether backing Dardenne or Angelle will make any difference in the ultimate outcome although, a recent poll claims that Vitter, Dardenne and Angelle are in a tight finish.

What we don’t know is whether the recent flurry of scandal-related articles will hurt David Vitter’s prospects at all.  According to one local political observer, conservative radio talk show host, Jeff Crouere, a segment of his callers are going to back Vitter regardless as to what is being said about him at this time.  They want a conservative and he’s their man.

How do I see it?

Vitter and Edwards with Dardenne and Angelle in the low teens.  Without any doubt, Vitter has the best GOTV machine, well-oiled and financed.  Ultimately, that's what counts. 

If Edwards is in the runoff and if he does not have a strong showing, he will have a very tough time raising money for the runoff, regardless as to who he might be fighting.  One factor will be whether Angelle and/or Dardenne endorse one of the contenders, or not. 

Am I willing to bet on any of this?

Absolutely not. 

Besides, I don’t bet.

Login to post comments
Powered By JFBConnect
  • Edwards gets Graves challenge on Louisiana flood relief money
  • Gov. Edwards's pugnacious state of union gave wrong Louisiana vision
  • Trump plus 80 days: Jim Brown, Bernie Pinsonat talk US, Louisiana politics
  • Trump should be like Reagan, not like Bush

graves c 3Shades of Katrina?

    Is political partisanship raising its ugly head again in the face of another Louisiana disaster?  Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards thinks so.

    Edwards got some rough treatment from a congressional committee in Washington, D.C. when he testified before it recently about the state’s response to flood problems.

Read More

jbeWith equal parts pugnaciousness and disingenuousness, Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards’ highly-politicized 2017 State of the State speech laid out a truly flawed vision for Louisiana going forward.

Read More

jim bernieIs Russia now our enemy, once again?

Did Donald Trump make the right move or was the latest attack, simply some wag the dog?

Read More

Iron nancy reagan 6n 1986, United States President Ronald Reagan authorized military aircraft to unleash a torrent of bombs in Tripoli, Libya to send a strong message to Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi. The attack was in response to Gaddafi’s involvement in the terrorist bombing of a Berlin disco that resulted in the death of American soldiers. 

Read More

latter-blum2

Sen. Appel talks budget, economy

TRUMP TALK

Dead Pelican

Optimized-DeadPelican2 1 1