Thursday, 05 November 2015 09:44
Edwards-Vitter polls, why the differences? John Couvillon, Part I
Written by 

couvillon blabTwo polls published this week: One by Verne Kennedy of MRI and the other by John Couvillon of JMC Analytics.

The former placed Democrat Jon Bel Edwards in a lead by 11 to 18% over Republican US Senator David Vitter, the latter, at 20%.

Why had such a variance?  Is one incorrect?  Both?

There might be a number of reasons for the difference--including the prospects that the polls are really not dissimilar at all.

This was the first question discussed when Couvillon and Jim Brown discussed the polls and the Louisiana governor’s race, with me, Wednesday afternoon.

The major difference was the measurement of the expected African American turnout.

Kennedy measured a turnout of 20 and then 25 percent of the electorate.

Couvillon used 29 percent assuming a roughly 95% support for the democrat.

The pollster said the runoff produced a 28 percent turnout of the African-American community.

He also said the rain depressed an already depressed electorate, it could have impacted the democrats more than the republicans and that the psychology of elections often drives turnout.  For example, if a candidate does not appear to have much of a chance to win, he will not get as large of a turnout, as desired.

Jim Brown, with 28 years of statewide office, discussed the lack of other competitive elections on the ballot that could drive greater turnout.  He said there are now only two statewide elections--the Governor and Lt. Governor race—a limited number of sheriff races and other elections.  He also compared this election to the John Breaux-Henson Moore US Senate race.   

 

 

Login to post comments
  • Despite 5th plea, Schiff says House Intelligence Committee pursues Flynn's documents
  • Facebook Live: Discuss harm of Trump budget proposal on Louisiana coastal economy, restoration
  • Governor Edwards welcomes Pence with Medicaid, budget, Louisiana coast wishlist
  • World Premiere tonight in N.O. Bilderberg, the Movie

flynn2Despite General Michael Flynn’s announcement via his counsel that the General and former head of National Security, would take the 5th Amendment in Congressional proceedings, the Intelligence Committee will pursue information, regardless.

Read More

560 usgs land loss map 2The efforts to rebuild the Louisiana coast has suffered a major and immediate setback, assuming that Congress goes along with the most recent budget proposal from President Trump.

Read More

penceToday, Governor John Bel Edwards welcomed Vice President Mike Pence to Louisiana as he Veep is attending a event with top Louisianqa Republican officials. Along with the welcome, however, is a wishlist of requests including an item of recent vinctage involving the current Trump budget which tears a hole into the funding for the Louisiana coastal restoration. 

Read More

bilderbergIt is always an honor when a movie premiere is held in New Orleans and tonight is no exception. At 7:30 p.m. Bilderberg, the Movie will premiere at the historic Prytania Theatre, 5339 Prytania Street.

Read More

latter-blum2

Sen. Appel talks budget, economy

TRUMP TALK

Dead Pelican

Optimized-DeadPelican2 1 1